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Showing posts from January, 2015

Dry Weather Looks to Continue Into February

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Apparently 1977 was a brutal drought year. We are on our fourth, but I just read an article that many of the charts are extremely similar to this year. I know this is very little consolation, but in 1977 things changed around the middle to end of February.

NOAA is predicting a storm for Tuesday, but I do not see it. I would be very surprised if we pick up even an inch. It will cool, but only slightly.

From what I can see, our change looks to be coming around the 10-12th of February. A number of factors are going to affect this change and I will keep an eye on them. Until then, I apologize but not much to say other than to enjoy the beautiful weather.

Fantasy Forecast
Here is the 30 day precip chart from the European model. Almost all the precip it see's comes starting on the 12th or February. The GFS long range is seeing the same changes. Keep your fingers crossed!


Please remember this; averages are made over a very long period of time. Our climate is always changing but it changes…

As Storms Approach, They Die ... Dry Outlook

My hope was a few good storms for the 2nd half of January, however that is not looking so good right now. I have just checked the short, medium and long range models for our area; things look dry especially for the next 10 days. The storm I talked about for the 17th will show up, weaken and barely have an effect on our weather. There will be very little if any precip.

What is even more depressing is the long range model, which shows almost no activity for Tahoe in the next 30 days. That has changed from what it was showing. A number of factors are responsible for this dry spell, too many to talk about here.

Looking at the precip totals, they are also very depressing, about 30% of average. Could we be in for our 4th straight below average year? A monumental change would need to take place to avoid this.

Now the bright side; We will get snow in Feb and March. Hopefully things turn around and we make a nice comeback. I do not believe that over the last 4 years we have changed our climate…

Storm Update (or lack thereof)

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If you read my last post, I was tracking a long term possibility of a storm coming in for around the 11th or 12th of January. However, the models are now pointing to our ridge of high pressure stubbornly staying over our area for around a week after that. Here is a look at our current situation:


Hard to complain about beautiful weather, but I think we all realize we need some snow. Talking to Sven over at Unofficial Mt. Rose, they have not seen 4 straight dry years. I believe they have lived here nearly forever!

That tells me we are due. I know, I sound like a broken record. But if you came here to get a depressing, world ending forecast, you came to the wrong place. Currently, it looks like our conjoined trough will split the ridge way too far north, leaving our section of the ridge, in place. However, it will slightly weaken the ridge which still bodes well for the future. Friends, when this pattern breaks, it will break hard ... I believe that will be this season.

What we really ne…