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Showing posts from January, 2019

Storm Strengthens; Puts Tahoe in Cross hair

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The end of our dry period is around 24 hours away. We have talked about this storm for a few weeks now and it is shaping up to be a very active 4-day weather event.

First, here is the precip forecast:


We are now looking at 4-5 inches of liquid for the Carson Range, while the western side of the lake, in the High Sierra could be looking at 7-8 inches of liquid. Areas down around Mammoth could see up to 10 inches of liquid precip.

We have bumped up our Carson Range precip totals to 2-5 feet of snow. We are leaning in the 40 inch range, but that could go higher or lower.

As far as elevations are concerned, we believe this will be all snow for Mt. Rose. The leading edge of very warm air will see snow levels in the 7,000 foot range, but those will quickly fall all the way down to 4,000 feet by Sunday night. This will be very beneficial for all Tahoe Resorts!

The peak of the precip should be all day Saturday. Then a very short break and starting up again Sunday afternoon and lasting through…

Winter Returns Friday

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As our ridge of high pressure gets kicked back out to sea, a storm door will open and should start Friday afternoon (2/1)  and last through most of the following Monday (2/4) . The peak of the storms should be hitting very early on Saturday morning:


After a near miss on Thursday, a much bigger storm should effect the entire state of California. Right now the models have the Central Sierra taking the biggest blow, but I think we will get our fair share.

You can see by the image, with the counter clockwise rotation of the low pressure system, warm, moist air will accompany this storm. I expect snow levels to start fairly high (7,500 - 8,000 feet) on Friday. As the storm moves south, it will then drag down some cooler air by Sunday, so I expect snow levels to drop through the event.

Here is a look at the precip forecast:


The trajectory of the initial storm will be subject to some shadowing, but we still expect the Carson Range to pick up 1-2 feet. Initially, Sierra Cement. By Monday, the…

Final Storm Today, then Dry for 7-10 Days

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The final storm in the series of storms will hit today. The trajectory of this storm has improved as the storm will hit Tahoe directly. The storm has ample moisture, will come in warm with snow elevations around 7,500 feet. It is packing a strong cold front that will bring snow all the way to the valley floor by tonight. Here is a look a the precip potential:


We are seeing an additional 1-2 feet of snow for Mt. Rose, with other Tahoe areas picking up rain on the lower mountain eventually turning to all snow.

With this storm comes gusty winds for the Sierra and Carson range with ridge top winds exceeding 100 mph.

After this storm a ridge of high pressure moves in and this storm cycle, for all practical purposes is over. We see dry weather for the next 7-10 days or more.

Looking way down the road, the ridge finally breaks down around February 2nd. A couple of storms look to make it into our area sometime around then.

Stay Tuned ...

Storms Strengthen; Take Aim at Tahoe

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We have two storms that are heading our way. Starting at Tuesday around noon expect near constant snow for at least the next 3 days with near blizzard conditions starting very early on Thursday and lasting through at least the morning.

As we have been saying, the first storm stalls out, the 2nd storm slams it. This 2nd storm has a sub-tropical moisture tap and will drop copious amounts of snow on our area with blizzard conditions throughout the Central and Northern Sierra starting late on Wednesday.


How much moisture?


As with all storms there will be a rain shadow, but I would be surprised if Mt. Rose did not pick up 4+ feet of snow by next Monday, with the upper mountain of Squaw perhaps picking up 7 feet.

Snow levels are a bit tricky. Expect all snow with this first system and snow all the way to the valley floor. As the second system moves in, snow levels will quickly rise and could get as high as 8,000 feet. Behind that system is another cold front and those snow levels will fall …

The Storms are Stacked

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If you read our last post, not much has changed, but we thought we would do a quick update for what is looking to be a very stormy week.

We expect several major snow events for the Sierra and Carson Range. The storms will continue to slam into each other which should provide enough momentum for much of that precip to carry over into the leeward valleys, like Reno and Carson City.

Timing:

The fun starts Tuesday afternoon when a southern born storm heads north through California and slams into Tahoe:


That storm will stall out and bring several waves of light to moderate precip to Tahoe. Then, it will get a big push from a much larger storm and we will start to see major precip around Thursday @ noon:


In our last post, we talked about the 3rd storm as the wildcard. Right now the models have that storm, which is even larger than the 2nd storm, giving us a glancing blow on late Saturday night (January 19th) or early Sunday morning. That storm is over a week out so it's trajectory could…

Weather Pattern will Remain Very Active Through Next Week

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In our previous post we talked about the potential for 6 inches of snow in the Carson Range and double that on the western side of the lake. That appears to be happening. We also talked about warmer storms and near misses for the weekend.

There are several storms coming our way for late Friday and then again on Sunday. However these storms are going to slam into the Sierra dip south, unable to get up and over, that will leave the Carson Range with just minor precip and the leeward valleys high and dry.

However, Sunday's storm is going to stall and then get slammed by a much bigger storm. That will force the moisture up and over the Sierra and next week looks like a very stormy period for the Tahoe area.

Here is a look at the forecast for early next Tuesday (January 15th):


We already had two storms collided forcing the moisture over the Sierra. Also, notice the next storm just off the coast. That will move onshore. Here is the forecast for about a week from today:


On the heels of t…

Next Storms Will by Much Warmer

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Enjoy the light powder while it is here as the next several storms will not bring nearly the amount of precip and will be much warmer with snow elevations pushing 7,000 feet. The next storm will arrive Tuesday late afternoon, here is a look at the forecast, again nowhere near as impressive as this latest storm, but could leave a foot or more on the western side of the lake, above 7,000 feet with about half that for the Carson Range. I do not see much spillover for the leeward valleys from this storm.


The next several storms will have a much greater impact on Southern California, where they really need the rain. We do not see any significant precip after Wednesday through the weekend and early part of next week for the Tahoe area.

The big storm for SoCal shows up in about a week:


The weather pattern does remain active and I expect the models to change, but as of right now, the storms are splitting and losing their energy prior to getting here.

Although nobody is complaining as all Taho…

Major Pattern Change Starts Now

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A series of storms should move through the Tahoe area and bring a big dose of winter for at least the next 10 days. It would be impossible to tell you when all the snow starts and stops, so we will concentrate on the highlights of the 4 storms that are stacked up and poised to hit our area. These storms are coming from the west, which should be a better trajectory for climbing over the crest and pounding the Carson Range as well.

Saturday January 5th @ 10:00 pm


Sunday January 6th @ 4:00 pm

Wednesday January 9th @ 4:00 am

Friday January 11th @ 10:00 pm

Sunday January 13th @ 10:00 am The pattern does appear to continue past the middle of January. Here is a look at the forecast liquid precip for the next 10 days:
As we said in our last post, which predicted this major pattern change over a week ago, the Carson Range is forecast to pick up anywhere from 4-8 inches of liquid precip which in a worst case scenario, should be 4 feet of snow in the next 10 days. In a best case scenario, if all the …