Posts

Showing posts from March, 2016

Cold Slider Comes Tonight

Image
The weather models are moving our slider slightly further west on its trajectory to Tahoe. That could bode well for more moisture for the storm to work with. I was not bullish on this storm yesterday. Today I am a little more optimistic. The storm comes in tonight and will stick around through Tuesday. The impact of this storm will be felt on the eastern side of the Sierra Crest and the Carson Range.

Perhaps the biggest impact is the cold front that is coming with this storm. Temperatures will be much colder through most of the week.

Nobody is trying to predict snowfall amounts. I am going with 6-18 inches for the Carson Range by Tuesday night. Slightly more for the eastern side of the Sierra Crest.

Here is a look at the Precip forecast by the EC weather model:



Dry weather follows through the week.

Stay Tuned ...

Storm Update

Image
The timing has changed since our last post. We are now looking at a minor event for Tahoe late on Monday night. I believe there is a possibility for 4-8 inches of snow at Rose. Northern California will pick up another nice dose of rain. However, this system is small and weak.

Looking ahead, our persistent ridge if high pressure moves in and begins to dominate our weather for at least the next week.

Here is a look at the precip forecast for this next storm:


As you can clearly see, some beneficial rains for Northern California.The Carson range could get up to an inch of the liquid precip, which could translate into around 8 inches of snow.

It is going to get windy as the storm moves through, but I think the lifts will spin Monday morning and Tuesday morning as the timing of the storm and winds appears to be late Monday into very early on Tuesday. Winds will pick up all day Monday as the storm approaches and then die down as the cold front moves through.

Stay Tuned ...

Small Storm for late Sunday, Dry and Before and After

Image
The EC and GFS weather models have a small storm on tap for late Sunday. This will usher in cooler air. I doubt there will be any effect on the Carson Range as the later we get in the year, the weaker the storms become. The EC is more bullish on this storm. Here is a look at the forecast for late Sunday afternoon:



If this holds together, we could get come spill over the crest, but I am not pinning my hopes on it.

After this storm moves through, high pressure will dominate for at least the next week.

Stay Tuned...

Storm Update

Image
As storms continue to move into Northern California, they slide south, not generating enough energy to make it over the Sierra. Our two best chances for snow come Sunday morning around 10:00 am and then very late on Sunday night through Monday morning.

I would say the storm tomorrow morning has the best trajectory to make it over the Sierra and have an impact on the Carson Range.

Just for comparison sake, the GFS does not see any wave coming late Sunday night into Monday, while the ECMWF model has the following for Monday at around 4:00am pst:


When we have this divergence in the models what usually happens is something in between. In that case look for light snow Sunday night through the morning on Monday.

All models have things drying out for at least the next 7 days and then we may be entering another storm cycle.

Stay Tuned ...

6 Days of Storms Start Today

Image
A series of storms will move into California. Beneficial rains will make it further south. This time, the Central Sierra appears to be in the Bullseye. That is until Monday. Before we get into that, these storms are moving out of the north. For the most part they will stay on the other side of the Sierra as they move south through California. However, we will pick up some precipitation. Between now and Monday I expect about 12-18 inches for the Carson, double that for the west side of the lake and more the further west you go.

Back to Monday; This storm will also fall out of the north. It has a much better trajectory and I see it being a decent event for the Carson range and all of the Tahoe Basin:


The above picture is the forecast for very early on Monday morning. this should stick with us for a good 12-18 hours or so and bring about an inch and a half of liquid to the Carson range and perhaps triple that for the Western Crest.
Here is the precip outlook for the entire event:

I expec…

Storms Stacked For Next 10 Days

Image
We do not like to look back at the weather, but these last two storms proved to be somewhat confounding. They just could not get over the Sierra. That meant enormous rainfall totals for Central and Northern California and about half of what we were expecting in the Carson Range. After my wife told me how wrong our forecast was, I simply replied to her that God always has the last say. It's His machine and only He knows how it works.

I think tonight's storm should be the best of the three. This is another massive storm that should better handle the rain shadow created by the Sierra Crest. Here is a look at the forecast for tonight:



This storm will be all snow for the Carson range and should produce snow all the way down to the valley floor. There could be a decent window tomorrow morning for the winds to die slightly and allow the lifts at Rose to spin. I think we will get from 1-2 feet of additional snow up on Rose so it will be quite a morning if the winds allow.

The next sto…

Likely Precipitation Timing Over the Next 7 Days

Image
I will try and pinpoint the major events of this major storm as they unfold over the next week. The biggest change I am seeing is a slight increase in winds. Let's talk about that:

We predict that the lifts will spin tomorrow. Tomorrow night brings in our first wave, but with any luck the winds die down for a very good day on Saturday. They will pick up in the afternoon and may cause lift closures. The heavy winds come in Saturday night but again, should die down by Sunday @ 8:30am. Monday could be the day, but winds will be strong in the morning and throughout the day. I believe they will have at least the slide lift spinning on Monday.

There is at least a chance (winds are very difficult to predict) that the lifts will not spin on either Sunday or Monday (small chance). If that is the case, Tuesday will have at least 4-6 feet of fresh POW to burn your legs out quickly. It will take them forever to get the Chutes open as it will be very dangerous in there, especially during the b…

Huge Storm Gathers Moisture and Builds in Strength; Tahoe in the Bullseye

Image
Yesterday we talked about an abrupt and sudden change to the weather pattern. Today we started to feel the leading edge of what will become a massive storm that will stretch from Japan to the Western Rockies of the USA. Here is a look at the Pacific Ocean forecast for Saturday:


This storm is the gift that will keep on giving. It will stall out off the NW USA coast and send multiple waves of moisture south ... toward Tahoe.

On Saturday night, through most of the day on Sunday we should see very heavy snow above 7,000 feet (I hope). There is so much moisture associated with this storm, that those snow levels could creep up to 8,000 feet to begin with. Through the morning and day on Sunday, snow levels will come down and I believe the leeward foothills (Arrow Creek, Galena Forest, etc) could see up to 6 inches of snow.

Here is the latest forecast for 10:00 Saturday night:


Our heaviest snow will come very early Sunday morning. We will receive heavy to moderate snow through Monday as the m…