As Ridge Moves West, Storm Door Opens. Winter Starts Next Week.

If you have read any of our recent posts, you know that we are forecasting our persistent ridge in the Jet to move west and get out of the way of a series of storms. We have been guessing the timing anywhere from the 18th to the 29th. Well it looks like on the 21st, our first storm will drop down from the north, pick up ample moisture from the south and kickoff winter, perhaps just in time for Thanksgiving weekend skiing! This will be the first in a series of storms that should stick around for a while. We are confidently counting three storms and are not looking out past that third storm.

Here is the timing as of now, of course subject to minor changes:

Wednesday November 21st at 10:00pm

Friday November 23rd at 4:00am

Saturday November 24th 4:00pm

Obviously, we are still a ways out so the timing is subject to change. But barring any unforeseen event, we should be looking at a very snowy Thanksgiving holiday.
With any luck, these storms will put out the fires that have been burning in Ca…

When Will it Snow?

High Pressure is dominating our weather. The ridge of high pressure to our west has done some dancing, but for the most part is blocking any moisture from getting into our area. In our last post we forecast that will change around the 18th - 20th. It does look like our ridge will begin to see some movement and a storm will probably just graze our area. However, toward the end of the month we are seeing major movement of the ridge and possibly a large storm could be headed our way. About Time!

First here is a look at where we are today:

Notice as our ridge moves north, our weather warms. Expect warmer conditions over the course of the next week or so. This ridge is literally blocking 90% of the North American coast.

We are seeing on several different models a break down of the ridge as it moves out to sea and allows storms to move in. Here is a forecast for the 18th:

As the ridge moves out to sea, the storm door will open for our area. The first in a what should be a series of storms w…

Winter Outlook: Warm Fall Could Give Way to Above Average Winter

A blocking ridge of high pressure is firmly entrenched off the west coast and is not going anywhere for at least a few weeks. This will continue to bring very mild temperatures and no precipitation. We probably will not see a change in this pattern for around 3 weeks.

We still believe, however, that we should be in for an average to slightly above average precipitation total for the winter. We believe that by late December through the spring we are looking at El Nino conditions, albeit a weak to moderate El Nino.

We also believe that when the pattern changes, it could be significant.

First let's look into why we believe that despite the slow start to winter, we should recover with average to above average precipitation.

First of all there is El Nino, here is what we are seeing for the coming months:

Although, this is not a strong El Nino, it is still El Nino. Last year we were in a weak La Nina. When the equatorial  Pacific waters started warming we fell into a near neutral ENSO, …

Smoke Relief in Site

As the fires continue to rage across all of California, our winds will shift from the east / southeast and that should provide a couple of days of summer for the leeward valleys of Nevada. We were hoping this materialized and it did.

Unfortunately, our prevailing winds come from the west and we will be back in the smoke by late in the week, so enjoy this very short reprieve. It could be the last one for a while.

Coming Up: El Nino is headed our way along with diminished sun spot activity. What does it all mean for the upcoming ski season?

Stay Tuned ...

The California Idiocy Dilemma

It used to be that if California wanted to ruin itself, it's resources, it's people and it's land, then let them. For many decades we have watched Californians do wrong. Hey, that's their business. Since the left has taken over California, we have watched nearly every decision made, be made based on politics and not on what is right or wrong. The end result is that California is the laughing stock of the world and an example of human idiocy that has not been seen before. Californians are migrating east at an alarming rate, changing the politics of states like Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. Bolstering big government because the government is our only hope to save us from human indecency. Can we classify a new disease; Californiaitis?

Oops, sorry for the delay in writing this. You see my office is powered by a mobile solar station that I built a few years ago. But that just died and I lost power. So I had to plug everything back into the grid. You see,…

California is Burning; No end in sight for Smoke.

California is burning. Regardless of which way the wind changes, our area will continue to be pumped with smoke. This is partially due to a very wet spring, which means lots of tinder by the time the dry season kicks into full gear and decades of forest mismanagement, caving to environmental groups that insist on no logging, but put out all the fires. Eventually, they cannot be put out until they burn themselves out.
Here is a look at what is happening right now:

Another look from the satellite:

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I just ran the latest ECWMF, and things are not going to change for at least the next 7-10 days and probably more. There is some indication that possibly a shift to winds coming from the south and east in about 9 days. Mother nature will not be helping, as this is the peak of the dry season with little or no chance for precipitation.
Stay Tuned ...

Final Two Storms, Then High Pressure and Warm Weather

We have two fairly weak systems coming in. If you read our last post, nothing has changed. The timing is still right on as one system comes in this afternoon through Monday and a much weaker system will bring in more cold air late Wednesday.

After that last system, high pressure moves in off the coast, which will bring much drier and warmer conditions to the area. So if you are impatiently waiting for a little warmth, that will begin next Friday. Between now and then, expect unsettled conditions with below average temperatures.

Once the ridge of high pressure moves in, we see an extended dry and warm period for the entire Tahoe region.

High Pressure Sets up for Next Weekend

When will the storm machine get cranking again? Well, we are pretty late in the year, but we know that winter is usually not over until the middle of June, despite pockets of summer being sprinkled in.

Stay Tuned ...