Posts

Two More Days of Heat, then more Seasonal Temperatures

Image
What a crazy year it has been thus far. Really just goes to show who is in charge and it aint us!

With record breaking heat overwhelming our area and much of the west, a cold front will drop out of the north and bring our temps back under control. Saturday will bring clouds and wind ... there is even a chance of some rain. here is a look at the forecast for 11:00 am on Saturday:


Temps will not get out of the 60's on Saturday but will quickly recover to a very pleasant mid-70's through most of next week.

I would be remiss not to compliment my good friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose. If you have been keeping up with his posts, they have been a terrific combination of back country conditions, ski area openings and current events. Imagine the casinos being safe enough to open, but not Mt. Whitney?? Huh? I guess the virus lives well at 15,000 feet with average wind speeds of 30 mph. Who'd have thunk that?

Looking ahead to next winter; we are seeing pretty much neutral ENSO wit…

Late Season Winter Storm Knocking on Door

Image
Under normal circumstances, we would be thrilled by a late season winter storm showing up this weekend. However, it seems the ski gods are rubbing things in our face. Of course they are not, and late season moisture is very beneficial for filling reservoirs and aquifers. However, doesn't it seem ironic that the last 2+ months of the ski season, we got very little precip. Since the ski areas closed, it has been snowing almost non-stop in the Sierra. Funny world we live in.

This storm is already impacting the Western Sierra and will show up in our area late this afternoon with the peak of the storm not coming until Sunday afternoon:


We expect about 12-15 hours of heavy snow for the Sierra. However, like all late season storms, this will not hold together as it crosses the Western Crest. We expect 4-5 feet of snow on the crest and about half that for the Carson Range, about 2 feet. It will be a colder storm with snow levels hovering right at about Lake Level or a little higher (6,400…

Stormy Pattern to Continue, For the Next 15 Days ... At Least

Image
We oftentimes suggest remedies to combat dry winter spells. For example, we have put out a call for everybody to wash their cars, surely that will bring in stormy weather. I toyed with the idea of turning on my irrigation system a few weeks back, that would change the pattern.

I think we have finally found the be all, end all, remedy; Close All the Ski Areas.

Since the highly questionable decision was made by the lawyers (See Unofficial Rose) to close down all the ski areas because of our litigious happy society, we have done an about face in the weather pattern that is rarely seen, even here. Coincidence? Probably, but let's keep this in mind if we need a proven drought buster.

We are tracking three more storms that are going to bring more snow and rain to the Sierra and state of California. These late season rains will oftentimes lead to a really nasty fire season, not to compound the many problems facing the state of California right now.

The first storm is just off the coast r…

As Weather Pattern Changes, Storms are Stacking Up

Image
The long awaited weather pattern change has finally arrived and should usher out the ski season in fine fashion as the next 6 weeks looks really good. I would argue that the pattern started it's shift about a week or 2 ago as our ridge of high pressure started getting kicked around, something we had not seen much of in the last 2 months.

The current storm could possibly exceed our forecast of 3-6 feet for the Carson Range and will certainly exceed the 6 feet we forecast for the Western Crest. It has picked up a very nice moisture tap from the sub-tropics and is feeding that warm moist air into the cold trough which is now just off the coast and stalled.


Eventually this storm will move inland and pass almost right over Tahoe. It will continue to provide plenty of much needed moisture through Tuesday.

We are tracking at least 2 more storms that are eerily similar to this storm. The first of these storms we believe will move into our area sometime late next Saturday (March 21st). Tha…

A Week of Stormy Weather Starts Saturday

Image
Several storms are going to join forces and produce near continuous mountain precip starting Saturday and lasing nearly a week. With the exception of the leading edge of the moisture, this should be all snow for all Tahoe resorts as temperatures will be well below average for the event.

Here is a look at late Saturday night during the peak of the first wave:


That low pressure system is going to move south and east. It will split and moisture will wrap around the Tahoe area until another low pressure system comes from the north on Thursday March 19th. During this period of time, we will see several waves of precip bringing much needed snow to the Sierra and Carson Range. How much is the big question. We are going out on a limb and predict in the neighborhood of 3-6 feet for the Carson Range with 6+ feet coming to the Western Sierra Crest.


Despite the peak of the storm season having passed, the potential does still exist for some very strong storms. This should usher in a change to our …

Cold Slider for Saturday; Several Warmer Systems on Horizon as Weather Pattern Changes

Image
We usually do not waste your time talking about what is happening or what happened. But that last storm squeezed every ounce of moisture it had and seemed to dump it all on the Carson Range. We'll take it!

We have another very similar system on tap for Saturday, here is a look at very early Saturday morning as the system approaches. This is another slider, notice the area of low pressure to the east. Again, we could see more snow in some valley locations than we see on the western Sierra Crest.


The next system is a bit tricky. It is going to move down the coast, offshore, and then pull a u-turn and come back up the coast, on shore. Both GFS and EC are forecasting precip for Southern California. The EC is predicting significant precip for both Southern and Central California:


This begins to impact the area around the 10th March and will usher in a pattern change. Notice how warm the system is however. We could have rain to very high elevations. This is still a week out and the two …

Cold Slider to Produce Cold, Not Much Snow; Pattern Change 2nd Week in March?

Image
A cold slider will slip down the leeward side of the Sierra and could produce more snow for the Nevada valleys than the Western Crest of the Sierra. I guess at this point we should be happy with any precipitation. We see this storm coming in late Saturday into Sunday. By Monday afternoon temperatures will recover and become seasonal to above average moving forward.

We are seeing at least the possibility of a pattern change around the 10th of March as a much larger storm could effect the area:


We are still a long way out on this one, but there could be a last ditch effort for winter to reappear in the mountains of Lake Tahoe.


Stay Tuned ...