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Next 10 Days: Heavy Mountain Snow and Valley Rain, Significant Warming, Inside Sliders

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Wow, what a winter we are seeing ... with no end in sight. The next 10 days will bring us a mix of just about everything. We warned about an unusually large, spring storm on track for next week. That is actually now two storms and both storms are taking aim at Tahoe and will produce significant precipitation. We see storms blasting our mountains starting Monday night and lasting through Friday of next week. Here is a look at the peak of the storm, next Wednesday around noon (3/27):


Once these storms have passed, we could be looking at a reasonably pleasant weekend as high pressure sets up just off the coast. This will allow warm air to come into our area and we could even see average or even above average temperatures from the 30th of March through most of the 1st of April.

Unfortunately, our ridge is then going to get kicked further out off the coast which sets up our worst weather pattern. Cold air will come down from the north, around that ridge and bring a series of very cold slid…

El Nino's Grip on Tahoe to remain Tight

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We have a couple of storms on tap for this week starting Wednesday. Please see the prior post or the daily weather outlets (as they have caught on) for a complete review.

However, we are tracking what could be a major spring storm that the EC weather model believes will slam Tahoe. This storm will approach the coast early next Tuesday (3/26). It will stall out and bring heavy precip to the Northern California and Southern Oregon coasts. Eventually it will move on shore, rise up over the Sierra and hit Tahoe. As the storm moves north, it's precip tail will slide south to Mammoth and parts of SoCal.

Here is a look at the storm as it approaches:


24 hours later it will begin to rise over the Sierra:


Again it will stall out, until it makes it's way further inland. As the main storm system does that, it will pull much cooler air out of the north:


Eventually, this storm will move out, but after 3-4 days. This time of year there is a much greater shadowing effect, so the amount of pre…

Think Winter is Over? Think Again; Next Storm Cycle Starts Early Wednesday

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Who knew the sky is actually blue? I certainly had forgotten that. We all had a very nice reminder and will continue to be reminded for a couple of more days; then the next storm cycle starts and this looks to be another good one.

We will start with Wednesday (3/20):


This is a weaker, warmer system, but the backside of this system will bring in some cold air. It will clear out early on Thursday. Then, late on Friday or early Saturday (3/23) the next storm comes in. It is packing more moisture and will be much colder:



That storm will hang around through mid-day Sunday, then after another short break, another storm comes in from the south and west:



We are trying not to get too far ahead of ourselves, and these storms are much weaker than what we have seen, but in the week starting next Wednesday, we are expecting about 2-3 additional feet up at Mt. Rose and probably more around the Western Crest and down in Mammoth.

Stay Tuned ...

Blocking Ridge Going to Keep Us High and Dry for the Next 8-10 Days

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A ridge of high pressure is dominating our weather and will continue to do so for at least the next 8-10 days. Right now that ridge is a little too far off the coast, allowing weak systems to drop in from the north, but that ridge is going to edge closer to the coast and block everything trying to make it's way to our area.


When the ridge does finally setup, I expect temperatures to actually creep above average, possibly as soon as this weekend. For now, these weak systems coming down from the north will keep us below average. Those temps will inch up until we finally see some sign of spring.

Stay Tuned ...

Last Storm in Cycle, Knocking at the Door

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If you have read our last few posts, you know that another pretty good sized storm is headed our way that will effect the entire state of California for the next 3 days.

We believe this will be the last storm in this most recent cycle. Of course, the storms have come so close together that it has been difficult to define a storm cycle.

Also, because of the recent storm history and the fact there is still plenty of weather out there, our confidence is not exactly high that we may be entering a dry period, but for now that is what the models are saying.

The peak of this storm should be about mid-morning tomorrow:


We are staying with our earlier prediction that snow levels should average around 6,500 - 7,000 feet, which means a likely mixed bag at lake level and all rain for the leeward valleys. These storm will spill over and we expect decent amounts of rain for the valleys.

Here is a look at the storm total, not what we have been seeing, but storms do weaken the later we get into the y…

60 Feet in 60 Days; Not Possible? Think Again

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Imagine: No Blower Trucks, No 4 Wheel Drive and No Weather Forecasting computer models. In 1846, we hit a similar weather pattern where it literally snowed for 2 straight months, starting in late October! The rest is history and we now have Donner pass and Donner lake to commemorate the 39 lost souls in the Sierra who attempted to cross the pass and were caught by an early and unforgiving winter.

Folks, this is the snow belt and we should not be surprised by anything Ma Nature throws our way. What is a bit surprising is our record breaking winter, just 2 years ago, looks like it may fall by the wayside. I say that because we are tracking 3 more major winter storms in the next 10 days that will continue to dump copious amounts of snow on the Sierra. Remember, we had a very slow start to the season and we even heard complaints about our above average snowfall prediction. To which we replied, "Just Wait".

Now 2 months later there are areas of the Sierra that will have picked up…

Change in Forecast: It is Going to Snow Forever!

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If you read our last post, the first storm that we thought would miss us and not get over the Sierra has been given a powerful shot of energy. Couple that with a moisture tap to the sub-tropics and we have all the makings for another major winter storm.

We should not be surprised. 2019 has been this way and looks to continue being this way. So the next storm cycle starts ... now!

The leading edge is creating violent down slope winds for the leeward valleys and especially the foot hills with 100+mph gusts being recorded and wreaking havoc up and down the range.

Behind it:


Notice the moisture tail that extends to the end of the earth! This is the forecast for today (2/25) at 4:00 pm.

This is only gets better (or worse, depending on your perspective). This should continue through Thursday with some of the heaviest precip we have seen this year.

On it's heels, the storm we talked about last post, here is a look at the forecast for noon on Saturday:



But this just keeps getting better. …