Winter Starts Again Thursday

Do not be fooled by this nice stretch of weather; El Nino is still out there which means the potential for winter storms is still very strong.

One such winter storm will show up very early on Thursday morning:

This is a very strong storm for this time of year and will usher in a pattern change that will last a week and put our nice stretch of weather far in the rear view mirror.

As you can see by the map above, a series of storms is headed our way with the final storm in the series due about a week from today.

This pattern change will usher in much cooler and much more unstable air. That means very windy over the course of the next week with snow levels at times approaching 5,500 feet!

What is amazing about this pattern change, occurring in the middle of May, is the amount of precip that is coming with it. Here is the precip forecast for the next week. Folks, we could see up to 5 feet of snow in the Western Crest of the High Sierra

I believe Slide Mountain will pick up 2-3 feet of sno…

El Nino Through 2019; Unofficial Rose Back Online

First and foremost; the Unofficial Mt. Rose website and our good friend Sven, is back online. After a change of internet address it can now be found at the following location, be sure to subscribe by email when you get there:

Unofficial Mt. Rose

We are counting 3 storms that will cruise through the area over the next week or so as our weather pattern remains unstable. We do not expect these storms to produce much precipitation, but our weather, especially in the Sierra, will remain cloudy and very windy.

Perhaps more important is trying to figure out what happened starting around the 1st of January. We have been on the storm track, literally, for the past 3 months.

We believe that the solar minimum coupled with a weak to moderate El Nino is what is effecting our weather. If you take a look at the following chart, we could be seeing more of the same, possibly lasting through 2019!

With the exception of 1 outlier, the weather models all agree that El Nino will last through the end of the…

No April Fools; 3 Storms in 7 Days

The powder days aint over yet as we are tracking 3 storms in the next 7 days. The middle storm is quite large for this time of year and will bring powder to the mountain.

Storm 1 (4/1 - 4:00 am - 4/3 - 2:00am)
Storm 1 will last slightly less than 48 hours. This is a fairly weak storm and a very warm storm. I expect snow levels to start in the neighborhood of 9,000-10,000 feet. Eventually those levels will drop to the 7,000 foot range. There will be strong shadowing and I expect only light rain/snow for the Carson Range.

Storm 2 (4/5 - 2:00pm - 4/6 - 11:00pm)
This is a much larger storm and is the storm we talked about in past posts that we have been tracking for late in the first week in April. However, this storm is very fast moving and will clear the area in about 36 hours. It will be cooler and has the possibility of bringing very strong winds to the area.

If this storm stalls or is delayed, it could mean a major event for the area. We will have to keep an eye on it.

Storm 3 comes al…

Next 10 Days: Heavy Mountain Snow and Valley Rain, Significant Warming, Inside Sliders

Wow, what a winter we are seeing ... with no end in sight. The next 10 days will bring us a mix of just about everything. We warned about an unusually large, spring storm on track for next week. That is actually now two storms and both storms are taking aim at Tahoe and will produce significant precipitation. We see storms blasting our mountains starting Monday night and lasting through Friday of next week. Here is a look at the peak of the storm, next Wednesday around noon (3/27):

Once these storms have passed, we could be looking at a reasonably pleasant weekend as high pressure sets up just off the coast. This will allow warm air to come into our area and we could even see average or even above average temperatures from the 30th of March through most of the 1st of April.

Unfortunately, our ridge is then going to get kicked further out off the coast which sets up our worst weather pattern. Cold air will come down from the north, around that ridge and bring a series of very cold slid…

El Nino's Grip on Tahoe to remain Tight

We have a couple of storms on tap for this week starting Wednesday. Please see the prior post or the daily weather outlets (as they have caught on) for a complete review.

However, we are tracking what could be a major spring storm that the EC weather model believes will slam Tahoe. This storm will approach the coast early next Tuesday (3/26). It will stall out and bring heavy precip to the Northern California and Southern Oregon coasts. Eventually it will move on shore, rise up over the Sierra and hit Tahoe. As the storm moves north, it's precip tail will slide south to Mammoth and parts of SoCal.

Here is a look at the storm as it approaches:

24 hours later it will begin to rise over the Sierra:

Again it will stall out, until it makes it's way further inland. As the main storm system does that, it will pull much cooler air out of the north:

Eventually, this storm will move out, but after 3-4 days. This time of year there is a much greater shadowing effect, so the amount of pre…

Think Winter is Over? Think Again; Next Storm Cycle Starts Early Wednesday

Who knew the sky is actually blue? I certainly had forgotten that. We all had a very nice reminder and will continue to be reminded for a couple of more days; then the next storm cycle starts and this looks to be another good one.

We will start with Wednesday (3/20):

This is a weaker, warmer system, but the backside of this system will bring in some cold air. It will clear out early on Thursday. Then, late on Friday or early Saturday (3/23) the next storm comes in. It is packing more moisture and will be much colder:

That storm will hang around through mid-day Sunday, then after another short break, another storm comes in from the south and west:

We are trying not to get too far ahead of ourselves, and these storms are much weaker than what we have seen, but in the week starting next Wednesday, we are expecting about 2-3 additional feet up at Mt. Rose and probably more around the Western Crest and down in Mammoth.

Stay Tuned ...

Blocking Ridge Going to Keep Us High and Dry for the Next 8-10 Days

A ridge of high pressure is dominating our weather and will continue to do so for at least the next 8-10 days. Right now that ridge is a little too far off the coast, allowing weak systems to drop in from the north, but that ridge is going to edge closer to the coast and block everything trying to make it's way to our area.

When the ridge does finally setup, I expect temperatures to actually creep above average, possibly as soon as this weekend. For now, these weak systems coming down from the north will keep us below average. Those temps will inch up until we finally see some sign of spring.

Stay Tuned ...