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Storms Strengthen; Take Aim at Tahoe

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We have two storms that are heading our way. Starting at Tuesday around noon expect near constant snow for at least the next 3 days with near blizzard conditions starting very early on Thursday and lasting through at least the morning.

As we have been saying, the first storm stalls out, the 2nd storm slams it. This 2nd storm has a sub-tropical moisture tap and will drop copious amounts of snow on our area with blizzard conditions throughout the Central and Northern Sierra starting late on Wednesday.


How much moisture?


As with all storms there will be a rain shadow, but I would be surprised if Mt. Rose did not pick up 4+ feet of snow by next Monday, with the upper mountain of Squaw perhaps picking up 7 feet.

Snow levels are a bit tricky. Expect all snow with this first system and snow all the way to the valley floor. As the second system moves in, snow levels will quickly rise and could get as high as 8,000 feet. Behind that system is another cold front and those snow levels will fall …

The Storms are Stacked

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If you read our last post, not much has changed, but we thought we would do a quick update for what is looking to be a very stormy week.

We expect several major snow events for the Sierra and Carson Range. The storms will continue to slam into each other which should provide enough momentum for much of that precip to carry over into the leeward valleys, like Reno and Carson City.

Timing:

The fun starts Tuesday afternoon when a southern born storm heads north through California and slams into Tahoe:


That storm will stall out and bring several waves of light to moderate precip to Tahoe. Then, it will get a big push from a much larger storm and we will start to see major precip around Thursday @ noon:


In our last post, we talked about the 3rd storm as the wildcard. Right now the models have that storm, which is even larger than the 2nd storm, giving us a glancing blow on late Saturday night (January 19th) or early Sunday morning. That storm is over a week out so it's trajectory could…

Weather Pattern will Remain Very Active Through Next Week

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In our previous post we talked about the potential for 6 inches of snow in the Carson Range and double that on the western side of the lake. That appears to be happening. We also talked about warmer storms and near misses for the weekend.

There are several storms coming our way for late Friday and then again on Sunday. However these storms are going to slam into the Sierra dip south, unable to get up and over, that will leave the Carson Range with just minor precip and the leeward valleys high and dry.

However, Sunday's storm is going to stall and then get slammed by a much bigger storm. That will force the moisture up and over the Sierra and next week looks like a very stormy period for the Tahoe area.

Here is a look at the forecast for early next Tuesday (January 15th):


We already had two storms collided forcing the moisture over the Sierra. Also, notice the next storm just off the coast. That will move onshore. Here is the forecast for about a week from today:


On the heels of t…

Next Storms Will by Much Warmer

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Enjoy the light powder while it is here as the next several storms will not bring nearly the amount of precip and will be much warmer with snow elevations pushing 7,000 feet. The next storm will arrive Tuesday late afternoon, here is a look at the forecast, again nowhere near as impressive as this latest storm, but could leave a foot or more on the western side of the lake, above 7,000 feet with about half that for the Carson Range. I do not see much spillover for the leeward valleys from this storm.


The next several storms will have a much greater impact on Southern California, where they really need the rain. We do not see any significant precip after Wednesday through the weekend and early part of next week for the Tahoe area.

The big storm for SoCal shows up in about a week:


The weather pattern does remain active and I expect the models to change, but as of right now, the storms are splitting and losing their energy prior to getting here.

Although nobody is complaining as all Taho…

Major Pattern Change Starts Now

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A series of storms should move through the Tahoe area and bring a big dose of winter for at least the next 10 days. It would be impossible to tell you when all the snow starts and stops, so we will concentrate on the highlights of the 4 storms that are stacked up and poised to hit our area. These storms are coming from the west, which should be a better trajectory for climbing over the crest and pounding the Carson Range as well.

Saturday January 5th @ 10:00 pm


Sunday January 6th @ 4:00 pm

Wednesday January 9th @ 4:00 am

Friday January 11th @ 10:00 pm

Sunday January 13th @ 10:00 am The pattern does appear to continue past the middle of January. Here is a look at the forecast liquid precip for the next 10 days:
As we said in our last post, which predicted this major pattern change over a week ago, the Carson Range is forecast to pick up anywhere from 4-8 inches of liquid precip which in a worst case scenario, should be 4 feet of snow in the next 10 days. In a best case scenario, if all the …

As Ridge Breaks Down, We Could (finally) See a Decent Storm

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Our persistent high pressure ridge has been dominating our weather for most of the season, which is not totally unusual. However, the weakness of the storms to penetrate the ridge has been somewhat surprising. We are starting to see at least a temporary break-down of the ridge as it slides south which should open the storm door for 4 or 5 day event starting next weekend.

Here is our current condition:



Notice how this ridge is blocking any storms from getting to our area and blocking any tropical moisture taps for storms that do reach our area.  Our weather is sliding down the eastern side of the ridge is also bringing us much colder air.

Now take a look at what develops for next weekend:


As the ridge slides south, the jet dips down and through our area. There are then several storms that should slam right into us. Our tropical moisture tap is still being blocked, but we are tapping into some moisture which should increase the amount of precip these storms deliver.

We should start to s…

Much Advertised Storm To Move in Today

A weak to moderate storm will move into Tahoe today bringing rain and snow to the area. Following the storm will be a strong cold front that will drop temperatures significantly. We expect around 12-18 inches for snow through Christmas day for the Carson Range. More for the western side of the lake.

Behind the precip will be very cold air and a series of short wave sliders will reinforce that cold air through the end of the year bringing additional light snow, with another storm on tap for New Years Eve.

Snow levels for this event will drop down to 5,000 feet with the potential for up to 6 inches of snow for the leeward foothills.

This will certainly help the resorts around Tahoe but is will not be the answer to our snow prayers, nor does it look like next week's storm will bring a strong Sierra event. We are still looking out for that and are confident it will come.

We apologize for our absence but the day job got in the way.

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year to all!