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Showing posts from March, 2013

No April Fools, Storm Track is Heading Our Way

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The Jet Stream is going to set up right over our area and that will usher in a series of storms that could make April a very storm month. Currently, the more reliable EC weather model is forecasting 8-10 inches of liquid precip for the Carson Range starting on April 1st and lasting 2-3 weeks. Here is the latest monthly control view for total precip ending on April 20th:


As can clearly be seen, West of Tahoe is in the 10+ inch range and the Carson range is in the 8-10 inch range. Remember this is liquid precip. We could be looking at a major weather event for the higher elevations of the Sierra and Carson Range.

The fun should begin around the 1st of April. Here is a look at the forecast, notice the storm is off the coast and the leading edge is pulling in precip for the entire state of California.


The only downside to this pattern is snow levels will be very high. How high? Right now it looks like 8,000 feet and up. Of course that could change as could the entire weather pattern. That…

Storms Weaken and Head North

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We are still looking at a precip event for Wednesday and Wednesday night but not nearly what I had hoped for last week. These storms are moving in from the west and shifting north before they come ashore. Although this storm has a good moisture tap, it just moves too far north too fast. Here is a look at midday on Wednesday:


Here is the precip total forecast:


As you can see, the models have backed off a major event. We are looking in the 6-12 inch range for the Sierra North and West of Tahoe and 4-8 inches for the Carson Range with more to the north of the lake.

Look for pretty high winds to accompany this storm as well, especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Looking ahead, the more dependable European model is forecasting 6-8 inches of liquid precip within the next 30 days with no focus on a major storm as of yet. I will keep any eye out and report accordingly.

Stay Tuned ...

Nice Weather to Gradually Wind Down, Storms on Tap for 3/21 - 3/26

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Our very mild weather will slowly cool each day until next Wednesday/Thursday. Then things get really interesting. A very large and impressive storm is headed our way and could bring as much as 4 inches of liquid precip to the Western Crest of Lake Tahoe. It will tap into very warm moist air and elevations on this one could be a little tricky. For Mt. Rose, expect all snow. Preliminary indications, however, are 7,000-7,500 feet.

Here is a look at next Thursday, March 21st:


This storm comes in from the west and moves North as it reaches land. This could be a bullseye on Tahoe and could bring a major weather event. Being a week off, we will have to wait and see, but this comes from the much more reliable European Model (ECMWF).

Here is a look at the precip forecast for this storm, pretty impressive for late March:



This storm is going to stick around for a while and should send several waves of precip our way. It will finally exit the scene as another storm pushes it out. Here is a look …