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Showing posts from October, 2016

Last Storm for a While

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The latest model runs are showing a weakening of the storm that is set for tomorrow. Then, after this storm clears out, I see no more storms for the next week or more.

Starting tomorrow morning, look for winds to pick up as this storm stalls off the coast. The storm will send a few waves of moisture our way on Sunday and Monday. The good news, this storm is much cooler and this will be all snow for Mt. Rose. Perhaps as much as 18 inches, but more likely around a foot. They really need it as their proposed opening for Monday simply is not going to happen.

I also do not see much spillover moisture for the leeward valley's associated with this storm.

Starting Tuesday and lasting through next weekend, look for mild temps and mostly clear skies. The golf season continues!

Here is a look at the forecast for 4:00 tomorrow afternoon as this storm forms and moves its moisture into the Sierra and Carson range:


Again, I see the Carson Range getting our fair share with this storm. My best gue…

3 Storms in 5 Days

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Things are setting up for a very active weather pattern for at least the next week, and probably beyond. Things pretty much have turned out the way we thought they would with Tuesday's storm being shadowed out. Now we are going to receive some tropical moisture. Here is a look at the Pacific:


We have several storms out there. Most impressive is how far west our persistent ridge of high pressure has been moved out. Toward the bottom of this graphic is Hurricane Seymour which is going to feed several storms and bring much need precip to most of California and all of the Sierra.

Storm 1 - Tomorrow Late Morning


This storm will tap into the tropical moisture of Seymour and be a big Sierra event. There will be plenty of spillover into Western Nevada and the Carson Range as well. Unfortunately, this is a very warm storm with the tropical moisture tap and my best guess is that snow levels will start around 10,000 feet possibly dropping to 7,500 by late tomorrow as the storm rages on. In an…

Active Weather Pattern Starts Early Next Week

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Our persistent ridge of high pressure will be pushed out to sea as a large storm drops out of the Gulf of AK. In the meantime the latest Typhoon, will spin around this low and bring much needed soaking rains to all of California. For Rose to open, top to bottom, by Halloween, snow elevations are critical in these next series of storms.

First, take a look at the Pacific:


First, the northern storm will send a shortwave right through the Tahoe area. Although this wave will weaken the further it moves inland, we should pick up some precip very late on Monday or Early Tuesday morning especially west of Lake Tahoe and west of the Sierra in general:


Right now it looks like there will be a strong shadow effect and the Carson Range may be left out. We will keep an eye on this. This is another fairly warm storm and snow levels will hover around that 8,000 foot mark.

The next storm, which wraps around this low pressure system, will pick up a very strong moisture tap and should bring very benefic…

Help is on the Way; Sierra Fires to End

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The many fires that have broken out are going to be short lived. We are at the very beginning of 4 days of stormy, cool and humid weather. Although the local weather outlets are saying "up to 2 inches of rain for the Sierra", they are completely off base. It seems to me that everybody was so afraid of the winds, that they never considered the precip. The Western shore of Lake Tahoe will pick up between 5-10 inches of rain and quite a bit of that will be very wet snow.That will douse any fires that still remain. The leeward side of the Carson Range (Reno Foothills, Washoe Valley, Carson Valley) will pick up between 2-5 inches of rain, again enough to douse any fires that still remain. In fact, the valley floors will pick up 2+ inches of rain, not the Sierra.

The sensationalism of our local journalists, is bordering on irresponsible.

Here is the very latest run of the precip forecast for these storms:


As you can see the Sierra, west of Lake Tahoe is in line for 5-10 inches, at…

Large, Warm, Windy and Wet, Knocking on the Door

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For a synopsis of this storm system, which is now two storm systems, see our last post.

In the meantime, not much has changed. A couple of very large storm systems will be having a major effect on Tahoe weather over the next 5-6 days. These storms are packing major winds, especially Thursday night through Friday morning and then again Saturday afternoon.

They are also packing epic moisture. Not many outlets are talking about the moisture potential. Here is the ECMWF forecast for moisture through Wednesday:


The only change is the heaviest moisture will be to our north and west now. However, I still see major moisture for most of the Sierra around Tahoe and Carson range.

These are very warm storms and unfortunately snow levels are going to start out at around 10,000 feet. So only the highest peaks of the Carson Range will see all snow. Eventually snow levels will drop, but rise again as each moisture plume approaches. Amazingly, areas around the California/Oregon border are being foreca…

Large Wet Storm Heading Our Way For Next Week

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We have been tracking this pattern for some time. This is a very unusual pattern that has developed in the Pacific, the likes of which we have not seen for some time. This pattern is going to spin up a huge storm which appears poised to slam into the Tahoe area and Northern California. With Super Typhoon Chaba and soon to be Super Typhoon Songda, there is copious amounts of moisture for this large storm to work with. Here is a look at the current conditions. I have labeled the Typhoons with a "T". Chaba is nothing but a weak low pressure system, but will still feed our major storm as the week progresses:


It does not take a meteorologist to figure out the path of the storm with the blocking ridge off the BC coast. Songda will hook up with a strong storm in the Gulf of AK and form a particularly large storm, especially for this time of year. Remember back to 10/13 of 2009. We had a similar pattern. A typhoon crossed the Pacific, picked up strength along the way and dumped in t…

2016/2017 Tahoe Winter Weather Outlook

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What better time to predict what type of winter we are going to have than when our first storm of the season is knocking at the door. In fact, a series of storms will be dropping out of the Gulf of AK and into our area. Although none of these storms are very impressive, they will change our weather with high temps 20-30 degrees cooler than the last week. This pattern will continue for about 7-10 days and then perhaps we will see some 70's again.


The above chart shows that we went from a strong El Nino to now a neutral ENSO. Actually, Equatorial sea surface temps are now ranging below average and if we do not slip into a La Nina this winter, we have an excellent chance next winter.

Quite frankly I do not believe much in predicting Tahoe winters based on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As we saw last year, this is not a terribly reliable measuring stick. In fact, our snowiest winter in history occurred during a strong to moderate La Nina. Despite conventional wisdom saying …