Showing posts from January, 2011

Changes Coming - But Very Slowly

I hope you enjoyed the beautiful January weather because it is almost over. Incidentally, I had to travel to south Florida last week to help my parents with a move. It was warmer in Reno than Naples, Fl. Go figure. It won't be this week. Starting late tonight and lasting through a good portion of tomorrow, a weak little system is going to move down the coast and come inland over Northern California. This system will continue to move to the south and east and provide a much needed hit of snow. This system is weak and somewhat moisture starved. It is also very cold and will usher in a big change in our temperatures. Snow totals are <1 inch in the valley, around a foot west of the Sierra Crest and 4-8 inches at Mt. Rose. Every flake helps as conditions have become very firm up there until late in the afternoon. Here is a look at liquid precip totals: We are right at the 1/4 - 1/2 inch. That will translate to 4-8 inches up at Rose because the water to snow ratio will be muc

Changes Coming ... But not for 2 Weeks

What you are seeing above is the GFS outlook for February 7th. I know, what a tease, but at least the skiers and riders have something to look forward to. In the meantime, more of the same, above average temperatures with clear sunny skies. Firm conditions in the morning, near perfect spring conditions in the late afternoon. I will keep an eye on the possible change in our weather pattern. Stay Tuned ... Accident At Rose This past week a 15 year old rider died at Mt. Rose. A very tragic event. Totally avoidable. Unfortunately, the rider made a critical mistake. From what I have heard, the rider and a friend thought conditions were too icy and decided to walk down the hill. That was a fatal mistake. In addition, the victim removed his helmet. I talked with Ski Patrol at Rose this weekend. I was told, in no uncertain terms, that you never remove your equipment and walk down, especially in icy conditions. Your boots have no edge to deal with ice, your skis or board do. As the Patro

Continued Average to Above Average Temps with no Precip In Sight

This will be a quick update. First of all, this blog is dedicated to storms that affect the Tahoe area. I have not taken a vacation, winter has taken a vacation. If you are not hearing from me, assume that the weather will be dry. Since early October, this is the longest dry span that we have seen. If you want to know your local weather, watch the local news, they are good at telling you what it was like earlier in the day. Of course you could also just look out the window and see for yourself. Having said all that, the weather will remain dry through at least the end of the month with above average temperatures for the most part. This should come as no surprise to the loyal readers of this blog. Back in September, I forecast a very mild and dry January and early spring. Actually, I was just looking at past La Nina's and forwarding on the common weather patterns. For a La Nina recap, click the link below: September Blog The models are in total disagreement about the possible

Southerly Flow Means Continued Mild Weather

Predominant South Winds Bring January Thaw As the January thaw continues, the valley golf courses are now all open. Even Arrow Creek is at least partially open. Our mild weather will continue until at least the middle of next week. There is some conflict within the weather models about a possible change in the jet that would bring the very western edge of a deep Arctic Front into the area. However, that would bring our temps down into the 30's. Our neighbors to the North and East could see high temps around -20F by the end of next week, so count your blessings! This Arctic air mass is one of the coldest to hit the country in decades, so we will keep an eye on this one. How I Ended Up In Hawaii Last night I was running around with my kids and we passed an establishment called Yogurt Beach on Mayberry and McCarron, which my kids insisted we stop and get some desert. I am not a big desert guy, but the kids insisted. Apparently these places are all the rage among the kids. When I

Mild Weather Is Almost Here

The severe temperature inversions of last week will hopefully give us a break so that a large ridge of high pressure can begin to warm the valleys. The mountains were beautiful last week, but the valley's were socked in with fog for most of the day. We had the weak storm pass through Saturday, that moved out the stagnant valley air and moved in some more cold air. Tomorrow and Wednesday we will have another system just clip us, that should change the valley air again. I do not see any major storms for the area until at least the 23rd of January. We should see highs toward 50 starting by Wednesday and nearing 60 early next week! I just heard a weather forecast on the radio talking about a storm for Tuesday and Wednesday. This system is well to our north and will stay there. This "storm" will produce no mountain or valley precip for the Tahoe area. Not sure what weather models those guys look at sometimes? Stay tuned ...

Ridge City Means Wash Your Car

A ridge of high pressure is dominating our weather leaving little or no chance for valley precipitation for at least a week and probably longer. The trend is to move out of our 45 day stormy pattern and into a much drier, warmer pattern. There will still be small storms to pass through our area and leave snow in the mountains, but now would be a pretty good time to wash the car. The first of those small storms will graze our area this Saturday, then on Tuesday of next week, with a little bigger storm coming in the following Thursday. These impulses will have no measurable effect on the valley but will serve one very important purpose; to change the air. The valley is notorious, this time of year, for trapping cold air, especially when there is warm air aloft, like now! The cold, moist air in the valley is producing thick morning fog. Combine that with 20 degree temps, and the fog freezes on some roadways. These storms move the air out of the valley and replace it. The high pressure s

The Little Storm That Could

A persistent Low Pressure system is moving onshore and poised to dump a reasonable amount of snow in the Sierra, especially the central Sierra around Mammoth. This little low moved down the coast and was originally forecast to have little effect on our weather. However it moved onshore and held together nicely. Mammoth could receive up to 3 feet of snow from this system. Tahoe is looking at about half that by Monday morning. Looking ahead, a ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather from Tuesday through Friday. After that another decent system will move into the area for next weekend. I will update this week.