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Showing posts from 2022

A Series of Storms Poised to Hit Tahoe Through Mid-December

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  This graphic shows you the forecast for mid-morning tomorrow. It is a beautiful depiction of what is known as the Pineapple Express. That is a moisture tail that stretches from Lake Tahoe all the way down to the Hawaiian Islands. These sorts of events pull very moist, warm air from the tropics into the Sierra. They usually bring very heavy rain to the California coast and very deep snow to the Sierra. We have two storms, one south and one north that will merge together to form one very large storm, currently here is what things look like: The fun does not stop there. Late Saturday, another storm system forms with another tropical moisture tap that will bring additional heavy snow to the Sierra: This storm will bring near continuous snow from Saturday evening through Monday. As if that is not enough, we have another large storm poised to hit the Sierra next Friday (12/9): With our ridge of high pressure shoved way out to sea, the storm door should remain open through at least the midd

Storm Delayed but Still Promising

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Our once promising storm set to arrive tomorrow appears to be delayed. Both the ECMWF and GFS models had forecast this as you saw from my last post. However, not all is lost.  The EC weather model is still predicting a series of storms to impact our area starting next Thursday. In addition, we will have hit and miss stormy weather up until that time. Here is the forecast for Thursday, which should bring a significant moisture hit to the area. Things then get more interesting. The ECMWF model is predicting a major event starting next Thursday and lasting through the following Monday. There will be a slight pause on Friday (12/2), then the big stuff comes in. Remember this is in addition to the Thursday storm: This is the forecast for Saturday (12/3).  The good folks over at the NWS would call this an AR event  (atmospheric river). Formerly known as the Pineapple express.  Here is a look at Sunday (12/4): These AR events bring tremendous amounts of precipitation by tapping into tropical

Trapped Inside a High Pressure Dome

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 Currently we have two ridges of high pressure that are dominating our weather. Any and all storms are being shoved north. In addition, our air is so stagnant that we are under a strong temperature inversion. What is a temperature inversion? This occurs when there is little or no wind, almost always during the winter. The warm air rises and the cold air descends. That cold air is trapped and has nowhere to go. Currently it is 20+ degrees warmer in the Sierra than the leeward valleys.  If you read our last post, fear not, change is coming. In fact it is beginning as we speak. A larger storm will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and begin to shove our ridge out. However, what you can tell by the strength of this inversion, the high pressure dome is quite strong. It will take some time. Here is the forecast for late tomorrow, we are already seeing some movement. By this weekend, our once proud ridge will be all but gone. That will open the storm door into Tahoe. Here is a look at early Satu

We are Expecting a Gradual Pattern Change in about a Week

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A ridge of high pressure is sending all storms well north of us presently. However, we expect to see that ridge begin to break down in about a week. That should bring in a pattern change along with a series of storms between the 22nd of November and the end of the month. Currently: Storms are being sent up to the Pacific NW and into BC. However Around the 22nd of this month we see the ridge begin to breakdown: The Pattern Change is complete by the end of the month: What does all this mean? It could be a stormy start to December. Right around the 22nd, our chance for additional snow increases and continues to increase as we move toward the end of the month. Stay Tuned ...

Storm Update

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Thus far this storm has been a dud. However, the brunt of the storm is just now moving onshore pushing precip into the Sierra. The rain shadow has been heavy, but with a more southerly flow we should finally start to see some heavy precip on this side of Lake Tahoe and even in the leeward valleys. The brunt of the storm will hit our area on the eastern side of Lake Tahoe starting late morning and lasting through the evening. We could possibly see 12-18 inches of snow up on Mt. Rose, which will greatly help their snow making efforts. The central Sierra, around Mammoth will see the heaviest precip. We will remain in an active weather pattern into the foreseeable future. With a series of storms headed our way and the possibility of a major weather event around the 22nd of November. Stay Tuned ...

Major Storm to Effect Tahoe and Valleys

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We have a major storm barreling out of the Gulf of AK and it is headed our way. It will begin to effect our weather this evening (11/6). This is a cold storm and should bring heavy snow to the mountains, Lake Tahoe and the leeward valleys of Reno and Carson City. Here is what we are thinking in the way of timing: 11/7: 2am 11/8: 10am 11/8: 4pm In addition, we have another storm coming in for next weekend: All told, here is what we are looking at for Total Precip: To summarize: We have a major winter storm that will bring very heavy mountain snow and very heavy valley snow. We are looking at 4-5 feet for Mt. Rose and up to a foot on the valley floor. The foothills could see 2 feet of snow. Stay Tuned ...

Cooler Weather Coming to Tahoe; 2022/2023 Tahoe Winter Forecast

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 First things first. We have a slider type system that will come down the Eastern Sierra and bring us much cooler temperatures. About 20-30 degrees cooler. This system is expected to arrive about mid-day Saturday (October 22nd). The Northern Rockies and Cascade Ranges will pick up some early season snow. We will not. Our time will come eventually, however, as the storm machine starts to crank up.  Looking ahead to Thursday the 27th, we are talking about a good chance of mountain snow, as a system comes in from the Northwest: Looking over the course of the next 2 weeks we are getting into a classic La Nina ensemble. As the Pacific NW will be very wet with only a few minor events making it to us.  2022/2023 Season Forecast After a strange weather year last, which saw major events in October and December but very dry after that.  Here is a look at the ENSO forecast from the various weather models. ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation, can be a decent indicator of what to expect over the

Much Needed Rains Put Pause on Fire Season

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We still have 3 more days of rain that will bring up to an additional 3 inches of rain to the areas burning west of Lake Tahoe. Funny when Nature is pitted against Nature how nature always wins. Yes, nature uses fire to regenerate her forests, but only nature has the power to put out said fires. We should never forget who is in control and it is not us! This blog is now using a new delivery mechanism, follow.it , to deliver content to your email inbox. There will always be an unsubscribe link. You can also filter what you see as well:  https://follow.it/tahoe-weather-blog?action=followPub&filter Our old delivery service, feedburner, simply stopped delivering, therefore we have used follow.it as a Feedburner replacement .  We will be posting our 2022/2023 winter season forecast in the coming weeks. Stay Tuned ...

Weekend Storm Should Dampen Fires

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We have an early season storm that will drop down the coast and make landfall in Northern California. It will then move west directly over the fire areas. This storm should produce some precipitation, which will greatly aid the effort to put out these fires that are burning due west of Lake Tahoe. This storm will bring much cooler and more humid weather and the winds do not appear to be nearly as strong as once thought ... all good news. We are looking at from 24-36 hours of light rain and possibly some snow over the fire areas.  We are also looking at our first high mountain snows of the season. We see an above average snowfall winter for Tahoe, and will post our season predictions in the next few weeks after we aggregate all the data. Stay Tuned ...

It is a Good News Bad News Scenario for Smoke

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 I will be brief: The Bad News: Our winds will come almost directly from the west leading up to next weekend. That means the smoke could be here to stay for at least the next several days. Around Saturday a front moves in that will increase the winds and bring them more from the north. Of course that will make dealing with the Mosquito fire that much more difficult. The rainy season does not start for nearly 2 months. The Good News: We made it all the way to September before the air quality tanked. The winds could clear out the smoke toward the end of the week. There are several storms that should change our winds frequently in the coming weeks. Here is a look at the forecast winds for this weekend: Qualifier: Predicting local surface wind direction is very difficult. Stay Tuned ...

The Storm Door is Wide Open

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If this were January, this would be a major event. Truth be told, storms are just not that strong this time of year. However, we are in for several moderate events, especially considering it is mid-April. As my friend over at Unofficial Rose  put it, " Well it looks like we will get a week of January in April which I gotta say is classic Nevada weather. 75 one day, below freezing the next." Let's start with Saturday's storm. This is a stronger storm than the one that left around 7 inches on Slide Mountain: It is also warmer with snow levels creeping up above 7,000 feet. You can see the separation of warm and cold air, right now we are in the warmer air at the peak of the storm. All snow for Rose though. I would be remiss not to mention that prior to Saturday there will be a few waves of precip that could leave an inch or two. Saturday's storm could leave as much as a foot. Shadowing for Rose, does not appear to be in play. The next storm is on track for Tuesday. I

Seriously, 5 Storms in 15 Days

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After a very dry start to 2022 (following a record wet finish to 2021), Ma Nature, for some reason unknown to man has decided to bring the storms back. We are tracking 5 storms in the next 15 days. Tomorrow 4/11 @11am Thursday 4/14 @ 11am All snow for Mt. Rose, looking at snow elevations starting around 6000-7000 feet. Friday 4/15 @ 5pm This one looks pretty impressive from a moisture standpoint. Tuesday 4/19 @ 11am Typical Sierra split storm, going to give us more snow, could be a shadow effect for Carson Range, however. Sunday 4/24 @5pm Smallest and possible the last in this cycle, again, we are seeing some shadowing for Carson Range. Additional 3-6 feet of April snow for the Sierra in the next 2 weeks! Stay Tuned ...

Snow on Tap For Next Week

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As the resort ski season winds down, Ma Nature is saying, "not so fast". A Pacific storm will drop out of the north, pull up moisture and could well produce valley snow and will certainly produce mountain snow. This storm will NOT be shadowed so we expect precip throughout the Carson Range and even into the valleys.  This storm will continue to strengthen and will produce very heavy snow for the Rockies. For us, we are expecting 6-12 inches of snow for the Sierra and Carson Range. Mammoth will get around double that. There are places in the Rockies and central plains that could be looking at 4-5 feet of snow.  Notice the very cold air coming down from the north. Temperatures will be off by as much as 30-40 degrees compared to the last few days. Having said that, they will quickly recover to near or above average by late next week. What is most impressive about our storm, is it picks up strength as it moves across the West and into the Northern Plains. If this is snow for Sout

California to Get Nice Shot of Moisture

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  Early Monday Morning This storm showed some promise. However, like the last storm, it appears the Carson Range will be shadowed out. These storms just do not have the strength to hold together over the Sierra. This will allow some much needed moisture into California. As we get later into the season, the storms become weaker. Temps recover quickly, although not quite as warm as this past week. Stay Tuned ...

Two Storms Possible Starting Next Weekend

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The two most reliable models are predicting a couple of decent storms starting next weekend. In all we could be looking at up to 2 feet of additional snow for Mt. Rose. The GFS model is showing this for the 27th: GFS: Sunday March 27th The European (most reliable) has this storm showing up late on the 28th and then another storm on the 31st; ECMWF: March 31st If these storms hit they will provide much needed moisture for the west. There is going to be a "rain shadow", however, I think Rose should still get 1-2 feet of snow. The other side of Lake Tahoe could be looking at 2-4 feet of snow above 7,000 feet. Excellent conditions still exist out there. My hat goes off to the groomers up at Rose. This additional snow will allow the great conditions to continue. Between next weekend and now, however, we are looking at some very warm temperature. We are talking about highs in the leeward valleys in the 70's (Wed, Thu, Fri and Sat). Stay Tuned ...

Weak Storm for Saturday Night

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 Well, this is the best we can do. We are tracking a couple of storms. The first is on tap for this weekend and could bring up to 6 inches of snow to the Carson Range starting Saturday afternoon and lasting until very early Sunday morning: After that we expect a big warm up that could see valley temps in the mid-70's by the middle of next week. Of course that will change and around the 28th of this month we see another fairly weak system, which is not uncommon for this time of year. We can see very large storms in April and in May. I suspect Ma Nature will turn things around just about the time we all catch spring fever. As far as season totals, this has been a pretty average La Nina year. Remember La Nina is fewer but larger storms. We have certainly seen that. Mt. Rose is going to be very close to average snowfall for the season. If you believe in averages and we certainly do, next year could bring above average precipitation. Stay Tuned ...

Slider System to Bring Much Needed Snow and Much Colder Temperatures

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Sorry for the late note, I have been in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. At the behest of everybody I know, I did not bring a laptop! We have another Slider like system that will drop into our area and bring snow and cold through tomorrow morning. Because of the temps for most of this event, we are looking at around 8-16 inches of very light powder for the Carson Range. Seeing a gradual warm up into the 60's for late next week. Stay Tuned ...