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Showing posts from 2022

The Storm Door is Wide Open

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If this were January, this would be a major event. Truth be told, storms are just not that strong this time of year. However, we are in for several moderate events, especially considering it is mid-April. As my friend over at Unofficial Rose  put it, " Well it looks like we will get a week of January in April which I gotta say is classic Nevada weather. 75 one day, below freezing the next." Let's start with Saturday's storm. This is a stronger storm than the one that left around 7 inches on Slide Mountain: It is also warmer with snow levels creeping up above 7,000 feet. You can see the separation of warm and cold air, right now we are in the warmer air at the peak of the storm. All snow for Rose though. I would be remiss not to mention that prior to Saturday there will be a few waves of precip that could leave an inch or two. Saturday's storm could leave as much as a foot. Shadowing for Rose, does not appear to be in play. The next storm is on track for Tuesday. I

Seriously, 5 Storms in 15 Days

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After a very dry start to 2022 (following a record wet finish to 2021), Ma Nature, for some reason unknown to man has decided to bring the storms back. We are tracking 5 storms in the next 15 days. Tomorrow 4/11 @11am Thursday 4/14 @ 11am All snow for Mt. Rose, looking at snow elevations starting around 6000-7000 feet. Friday 4/15 @ 5pm This one looks pretty impressive from a moisture standpoint. Tuesday 4/19 @ 11am Typical Sierra split storm, going to give us more snow, could be a shadow effect for Carson Range, however. Sunday 4/24 @5pm Smallest and possible the last in this cycle, again, we are seeing some shadowing for Carson Range. Additional 3-6 feet of April snow for the Sierra in the next 2 weeks! Stay Tuned ...

Snow on Tap For Next Week

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As the resort ski season winds down, Ma Nature is saying, "not so fast". A Pacific storm will drop out of the north, pull up moisture and could well produce valley snow and will certainly produce mountain snow. This storm will NOT be shadowed so we expect precip throughout the Carson Range and even into the valleys.  This storm will continue to strengthen and will produce very heavy snow for the Rockies. For us, we are expecting 6-12 inches of snow for the Sierra and Carson Range. Mammoth will get around double that. There are places in the Rockies and central plains that could be looking at 4-5 feet of snow.  Notice the very cold air coming down from the north. Temperatures will be off by as much as 30-40 degrees compared to the last few days. Having said that, they will quickly recover to near or above average by late next week. What is most impressive about our storm, is it picks up strength as it moves across the West and into the Northern Plains. If this is snow for Sout

California to Get Nice Shot of Moisture

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  Early Monday Morning This storm showed some promise. However, like the last storm, it appears the Carson Range will be shadowed out. These storms just do not have the strength to hold together over the Sierra. This will allow some much needed moisture into California. As we get later into the season, the storms become weaker. Temps recover quickly, although not quite as warm as this past week. Stay Tuned ...

Two Storms Possible Starting Next Weekend

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The two most reliable models are predicting a couple of decent storms starting next weekend. In all we could be looking at up to 2 feet of additional snow for Mt. Rose. The GFS model is showing this for the 27th: GFS: Sunday March 27th The European (most reliable) has this storm showing up late on the 28th and then another storm on the 31st; ECMWF: March 31st If these storms hit they will provide much needed moisture for the west. There is going to be a "rain shadow", however, I think Rose should still get 1-2 feet of snow. The other side of Lake Tahoe could be looking at 2-4 feet of snow above 7,000 feet. Excellent conditions still exist out there. My hat goes off to the groomers up at Rose. This additional snow will allow the great conditions to continue. Between next weekend and now, however, we are looking at some very warm temperature. We are talking about highs in the leeward valleys in the 70's (Wed, Thu, Fri and Sat). Stay Tuned ...

Weak Storm for Saturday Night

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 Well, this is the best we can do. We are tracking a couple of storms. The first is on tap for this weekend and could bring up to 6 inches of snow to the Carson Range starting Saturday afternoon and lasting until very early Sunday morning: After that we expect a big warm up that could see valley temps in the mid-70's by the middle of next week. Of course that will change and around the 28th of this month we see another fairly weak system, which is not uncommon for this time of year. We can see very large storms in April and in May. I suspect Ma Nature will turn things around just about the time we all catch spring fever. As far as season totals, this has been a pretty average La Nina year. Remember La Nina is fewer but larger storms. We have certainly seen that. Mt. Rose is going to be very close to average snowfall for the season. If you believe in averages and we certainly do, next year could bring above average precipitation. Stay Tuned ...

Slider System to Bring Much Needed Snow and Much Colder Temperatures

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Sorry for the late note, I have been in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. At the behest of everybody I know, I did not bring a laptop! We have another Slider like system that will drop into our area and bring snow and cold through tomorrow morning. Because of the temps for most of this event, we are looking at around 8-16 inches of very light powder for the Carson Range. Seeing a gradual warm up into the 60's for late next week. Stay Tuned ...

A Couple of Near Misses in the Next Two Weeks

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 Wow, Ma Nature is really being fickle here. Our persistent ridge of high pressure is being bounced around, but will still block any major storms from reaching the area for the next 10-15 days. Here is a typical example, notice the ridge providing a perfect block from storms making it into Tahoe: We will return to much cooler air in about a week as well as an Arctic Front makes its way down and gets far enough west to effect our area. At least the Pacific NW is getting storms now. That could bode well for the 2nd half of March. Mt. Rose is up to 300 inches of snow for the year, which exceeds most predictions out there. Of course we predicted 330 inches for this year and that guess is starting to look eerily similar to last year. Perhaps next year we will predict 600 inches! Stay Tuned ...

March Miracle or Madness?

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A couple of slider systems will continue to effect our weather over the next 10 days or so. We are still seeing a pattern change continuing into March with storms coming down the coast as opposed to the Eastern Sierra. Those storms have much greater potential. We can expect a repeat of the slider we had earlier in the week. That system will come though on the 21st and 22nd and should bring more snow to the valley and the Eastern Sierra / Carson Range. These systems also bring in much cooler air. Then around the first of March we are seeing the ridge moved north and west. That should open the storm door. Right now the models are not showing any consistency. For now our confidence is not very high, but at least there is a chance for March to come in wet. Sorry, that's all I have for now. Stay Tuned ...

Major Weather Pattern Change to Arrive Around the 21st

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We alluded to this pattern change in our last post. The models are converging and even the NOAA long range forecast is calling for a likely stormy pattern heading to the entire West Coast starting on the 21st and lasting into March. Here is a look at the forecast for the 21st. This is the first in a series of storms as the polar ridge that has brought the Central and Eastern US into the deep freeze starts to break up. We know this is a ways out, but our confidence is very high for a number of reasons. Mostly, many of the weather predictors (AO, MJO, etc) are all pointing toward this event. In addition, the ECMWF Long Range is now forecasting this. This from NOAA, the last bullet point is most relevant to us: In addition, the AO is moving to a negative phase which bodes well for stormy west coast weather. So enjoy the next 10 days of high pressure as things are going to change rather dramatically.  March Miracle? Maybe! Stay Tuned ...

When Will it Snow Again?

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After record breaking snows in December, Ma Nature has turned off the spigot. Why she decided to do that, we have no idea. So, will it ever snow again in Tahoe? I know that is a ridiculous question. Of course it will.  We took out our long range Crystal Ball. We looked long and hard for a pattern change. We see one coming on or about the 3rd or 4th week of this month. Between now and then we could see a couple of weak sliders. One of the culprits for this weather, is a huge ridge of high pressure extending from northern Canada down all the way to parts of the southern US. It is keeping the northern plains in the deep freeze and blocking just about everything. That is giving free reign to our persistent ridge to setup off the coast and channel everything north. We need that ridge to move west, which should open the storm door again. Around the 3rd of 4th week of February, the long range forecast has that ridge moving west: As you can see, when that happens storms fill the void and make

A Couple of Glancing Blows; No Major Storms for at least Next 7-10 Days

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Our persistent ridge of high pressure, after being tossed around like a rag doll, is making a comeback. We have a few glancing blows that for the most part will be blocked by said ridge. The first is late Monday night (1/3), early Tuesday morning: Notice that blocking ridge to our south. We will get a glancing blow at best, perhaps 6 inches of snow up at Mt. Rose. The next is Friday (1/7) in the morning: Again, another glancing blow. The good news, these smaller systems should mix up the air and prevent a long, drawn out temperature inversion.  Temperatures will fluctuate, but we still see high's in the 50's for valley locations starting Thursday. Not much else happening, Happy New Year! Stay Tuned ...