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Storm Train Continues; Short Break Then Last Storm in Cycle

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Although this latest series of storms has underperformed our expectations, it will continue throughout the day. Then we will get a short break before the final storm in the series comes in for Friday (1/3). It looks like high pressure sets in after that for probably 10-14 days. These warm storms have had trouble getting enough lift to make it over the Sierra Crest with a few exceptions.  Mt. Rose will get 2-3 feet out of this cycle. Again, not your typical La Nina storms. Today's storm should be past us by this evening. We will then have a short break to dry out. Things will again warm up before the next storm comes in Friday: This cycle has left lots of precipitation in Northern California, which is always beneficial. The Pacific NW has been getting pounded all winter and these next few storms will be no exception. Here is a look at the precip potential through next Friday (1/3): We hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas and will enjoy a prosperous New Year. Unless something cha...

Series of Storms to Slam Tahoe Between now and the End of the Year

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The storms are stacking up in the Eastern Pacific. We are tracking as many as 6 storms heading our way starting with Today's storm. This will bring clouds, wind and snow to Mt. Rose for nearly 10 straight days. One of the bigger of these storms will be on Christmas Eve: This is a pretty warm storm and it is moving pretty fast. However, a weaker wave comes through on the 26th and then another stronger wave comes through on the 27th: These are also pretty warm storms. However, this will be all snow for Mt. Rose. A number of weaker waves will follow the storm on the 27th, then on the 29th we are looking at another warmer storm: If you are wondering about New Years, this pattern will be active until at least the 3rd of January. Here is what we are talking about in the way of liquid precipitation: We are now thinking 4-6 feet of snow for Mt. Rose in the next 10 days. We are expecting 2 inches of liquid precip at the lake, much of that will be rain. The Western Crest will see nearly 10 f...

Christmas Eve Storm?

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We are tracking what could amount to a series of storms starting this Saturday (12/21). As our persistent ridge of high pressure breaks down, we are looking at waves of precipitation that could last until New Years Eve. The GFS is much more bullish on this event than the ECMWF. Again, we favor the Euro model. Here is what all models are in agreement with: The above forecast is for Christmas Eve. This should be all snow for Tahoe resorts, except at the very lowest elevations. If you are thinking of crossing the Sierra, you may want to avoid the 24th. We are tracking additional waves of precipitation for the 26th and 29th as well.  Again these are fast moving storms. We are still waiting on a huge La Nina dump, which has yet to materialize. We will most likely have to wait until January before we see this.  Here is the precipitation potential, between now and the end of the year. We believe Mt. Rose will be in the 18-30 inch range. Which should open more terrain. This precip wil...

Rain Shadow in Full Effect for Carson Range

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We have a storm just off the coast. However, we are seeing another strong rain shadow effect for the Carson Range. The precip is hitting the Sierra and not lifting over the mountains. When that happens, the precip moves down the Sierra leaving small amounts of behind. As you can clearly see by the forecast for tomorrow (below), there is plenty of moisture with this storm but not enough energy to get up and over the Sierra. Also, the deep freeze blocking high, forecast earlier in the week never materialized, so these storms are moving through rather quickly. Monday's storm looks like more of the same. The one piece of good news, these storms are nowhere near as warm as we thought they would be. What precip does come to Mt. Rose will be all snow. Then the models diverge. The ECMWF is predicting a very snowy Christmas and New Years. The GFS is predicting no more precip through the end of the year. We always favor the ECMWF, but this has been a very weird year with multiple storms prod...

Models Beginning to Align; Pattern Change Starts Thursday

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After a long dry spell, the models are beginning to align and we expect a very abrupt pattern change starting Thursday with the possibility of huge storm for Saturday and another very warm storm for Monday. Here is what we are seeing, bare in mind that the GFS model is aligning with the ECMWF which increases are confidence: Thursday 12/12 Saturday 12/14 Monday 12/16 Much of the rest of the country will be in a deep freeze. A huge ridge of high pressure will provide some blocking which will slow our storms down. That means more precip! We are pretty confident that this is all snow on Thursday and Saturday for Mt. Rose. Monday could be a bit sketchy with some high elevation rain. Stay Tuned ...

Pattern Change Could Show Up in About a Week

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Deep inversions will continue through the week. Great flying weather. Beautiful up on the mountain, but not enough open terrain. The most reliable weather model, the ECMWF, is forecasting that a major pattern change is coming to Tahoe and most of California in about week with several strong storms. The GFS model is showing a blocking ridge of high pressure. Our confidence of this pattern change is medium right now. We are hoping the models come into alignment. Again the ECMWF is more reliable especially further out. Here is what it is saying: Saturday December 14 Monday December 16 The 2nd storm is much warmer and could have very high snow levels. Before making any bold predictions, we will wait for the models to align. Stay Tuned ...

One Last Storm Before Dry Conditions and Warming Trend

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This has been quite the weather smorgasbord. We had 3 troughs of low pressure a blocking ridge of high pressure and a dance in the Pacific off the West Coast of the US with all these weather systems. I give the models some credit, they pegged it pretty well. We are now looking at what could be one more decent storm before a much drier and much warmer weather trend. Here is the forecast for early Tuesday morning. This storm has a great moisture tap and will come in warm as is usually the case when we have the potential for major precipitation. All models are pointing to a major snow storm for Mammoth. We are uncertain on the amount of snow we will see up in Tahoe. Right now it looks like about 1-2 feet on the crest and 6-8 inches for Slide Mountain. Ironically, the storm earlier in the week pounded areas north of Lake Tahoe, while this storm will pound areas south of Lake Tahoe. Of course Mother Nature is in charge and a slight shift north would bring much more snow. The Carson Range ha...

Heavy Snow For the Carson Range Expected Through Saturday

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A massive storm, that we talked about last post is slamming Northern California. Despite the strength of this storm, much of the Carson Range has been shadowed out. That is about to change. The last big wave will be sliding south and will produce heavy snow above 7,500 and will cross over the Sierra and Lake Tahoe and should bring about 3-5 feet of snow to Slide Mountain by late Saturday night. The heaviest snow will last from about 7pm tomorrow through the early morning hours Saturday. We will get a short break before this same storm gathers and brings a lighter wave of precip to most of the Sierra from late Sunday through all of Monday. We could pick up an additional foot in the Carson Range, however we will be shadowed out again from the really big stuff. Thanksgiving now looks dry so the pattern will change back to a blocking ridge of high pressure. These next few storms need to produce some heavy amounts of snow if we want superior skiing and riding after Thanksgiving. The dry pat...

Wednesday Will Usher in Pattern Change

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We are about to enter a stormy pattern that looks like it will last for the next couple of weeks. Here is the forecast for Wednesday early morning (11/20), notice the two ridges of high pressure to the east and south. That will allow this storm to stall: Next wave is forecast to come in on Saturday morning: Another wave is scheduled for Sunday night: We could be looking at storms through the Thanksgiving weekend. The models are in alignment through Saturday. We will keep an eye out for a possible major storm for Thanksgiving. Right now we are looking at about 3-5 feet in the next few weeks.  These storms are on the warm side. We are confident this will be all snow, however, for Mt. Rose. High base matters! Stay Tuned ...

Storm For Monday and Seasonal Outlook

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First things first, there is a storm that will come in and deliver around 6 inches of snow to Slide Mountain on Monday afternoon. We will take all we can get! Mt. Rose high base will come in handy as this storm will begin on the warm side. I am not seeing any large storms after that for a few weeks. Luckily I have a crystal ball that can look quite a ways into the future. What I am seeing is a pattern change. Currently, we have our persistent ridge of high pressure that is blocking storms from making it down this far south. The pattern could change around Thanksgiving as the ridge breaks down and a series of storms could enter our area. Here is a look at the forecast for Thanksgiving day. Winter Outlook As we look toward the upcoming winter, what are we seeing? We have been pretty lucky with our winter forecasts the last several years. Disclaimer: Ma Nature is in charge! For starters we are going to see a moderate to strong La Nina. What does that mean? In short it means the surface te...

Today is Windiest; Much Cooler More Humid Air Tonight and Tomorrow; More Wind Starting Sunday

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 The Davis Fire, is currently at 31% containment. It jumped Mt. Rose Highway but that was quickly extinguished. However, winds are about to pick up. That is the bad news. The good news is they will die down this evening. We are looking at 25Kt winds for this afternoon and through most of the evening. Then the winds are forecast to calm by 11pm. Here is the the forecast for this afternoon and evening: As you can clearly see, winds will be coming from the west to southwest.  However, the models are pretty clear that the winds will calm as we move into later tonight. Here is the wind forecast for 11pm: Winds should calm down considerably. The European model has much lighter winds. We are expecting winds in the 20kt range with gusts to 35kts through about 6:00. Then they will begin to die down. This is not what was forecast elsewhere, but I am not sure what models they are looking at. I am not a fire expert, but I do NOT expect the gloom and doom that was presented in last nights ...

If You Think El Nino is Done With Us; Think Again

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What a beautiful run of spring weather! Don't get used to it. It is coming to a screeching halt on Friday. We see a pretty major pattern change that will bring the possibility of a few strong storms to the Sierra and even over to the Carson Range. One thing for sure, your upper 70's (in the valley) will be replaced with upper 50's with lots of wind. Here is a look at the forecast for Thursday. That trough of low pressure is going to change everything. Behind it is a significant cold front that will bring our temperatures down below average for at least the next few weeks. It will open the door for more storms that have some potential to bring in a late season Sierra Snow Storm. We will really feel the pinch next week around Tuesday. Notice the cold air (light blue line) heading to our area. That is typical of what we may see in January. Finally, as the storm door stays open and our weather is dominated by air from the north: This system could usher in a major storm. That st...

Significant Cold Front with Some Precipitation Headed Our Way

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 Enjoy the warm, sunny weather. It is not going to last. We have been talking about a cold front which will make it's way to our area starting later on the 4th. With that cold front we are talking about some precipitation as well.  Temperatures should bounce back around the 9th of the month and go above average again. I would probably wait on turning on your irrigation until at least then. Here is a look at the forecast for Thursday evening (4/4): This will be our best chance for precipitation and we will see at least a few flakes all the way down to the valley floor as the cold front moves through on Thursday night and Friday. By the 11th of April, our temperatures should be back above average. As we move later in the season, our storms will be weaker. However, Ma Nature always spins up a surprise when we least expect it. As far as seasonal averages are concerned, we are now above average in precipitation for our 2nd straight year. Of course 3 years ago we were slightly below...

Significant Storm on Tap for this Week

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Sorry about the delay, had to take a little time off. We have a storm that will have a significant impact on the area. The storm will approach Tahoe on Wednesday evening: The storm will send several waves of moisture. Then take a break on Thursday (3/28). It will then regroup and bring more precip to the are on Friday: Here is the precip forecast for this week: The Western Sierra crest will pick up nearly 5 feet of snow. The Carson Range will be in the 1-3 feet range. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages for this time of year. They will recover this weekend and to near average or even above average. However, we are tracking a strong cold front moving down into our area around the 4th of April, that will bring our temperatures back to well below seasonal averages. Stay Tuned ...

Spring is Coming, No Storms in Sight

We are seeing zero storms in the near future. A very weak system will move through tomorrow but produce no significant precip on this side of the Lake Tahoe. We are looking at temps in the upper 60's for later in the week. High pressure moves in and we will be dry for at least the next 2 weeks.

One More Day, Then General Drying Trend

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As is often the case, when we get walloped by a big storm, it changes the entire pattern. The ECMWF weather model says 1 more day then light snow through Wednesday then a general drying trend. Temperatures will recover to the lower 50's but for the most part stay below average for this time of year. The GFS weather model does have a stronger system for Tuesday and then another system for a week from Monday. For now we will stick with the European model. Here is a look at the middle of next week as a blocking ridge of high pressure is going to move in and send any storms to the north for a while. That should give the resorts time to dig out. Stay Tuned ...

Significant Storm(s) Knocking on the Door; Record March?

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The NWS has issued a blizzard warning for the leeward valleys of Northern Nevada. These guys are professionals and are very good at what they do. In addition, we are looking at the possibility of over 10 feet of snow for the Sierra, including the Carson range. Our forecast is mountain snow through March 15th on most days! We could see an additional 10-15 feet of snow on Mt. Rose by the middle of March. Here is some timing: Thursday Night 2/29 The storm approaches and begins to slam the West side of Lake Tahoe. Even the leading edge of this storm is cold, we see initial snow levels below Lake Tahoe, which is great news for all resorts. Friday Late Afternoon 3/1 The storm stalls and gathers steam. This portion of the storm will deliver very significant snowfall over the Sierra. Snow begins in the Leeward valleys after starting with rain. Saturday Night 3/2 The storm remains stalled. Notice how the cold air meets the warm air right over Lake Tahoe. What a party this will be! Sunday Evenin...

Colder Storms Heading Our Way

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In an about face, El Nino has decided to send us some Arctic air along with some tropical air. These two air masses are going to meet right over Lake Tahoe. We believe the Arctic air mass will win out in the end and bring about a week's worth of snow at much lower elevations. Things begin next Tuesday with a weak system that will leave very little snow but bring it high winds. The party really gets started about midday on Thursday (2/29): We are on the outer rings of precipitation of a massive storm to the north. That storm is going to charge south, run into a much warmer air mass and stall. Here is the timing: Friday (3/1) late afternoon Saturday 3/2, Late Morning (storm stalled)   Sunday 3/3, Early Morning  We will feel the remnants of this storm through Tuesday (3/5). Temperatures will not recover and stay well below average through at least March 9th. The majority of the precip will come on Friday, Saturday and Sunday of next week. Here is the precip forecast for the event...