Tahoe Weather Blog

If you enjoy the warm weather, do not get too acclimated. That is because an unusually large storm is coming straight out of the Gulf of AK and heading for your backyard. We have one more full day of above average temperatures. Then on Sunday, starting in the afternoon, the winds will start to increase ahead of this large storm. There should be a decent precip event for the Sierra around Tahoe and there is a very good chance of rain and then snow spilling over to the valleys. The snow will come down to 4,500-5,000 feet. Crazy to imagine we had a big storm in January with 11,000 foot snow levels and this one, which will start as all rain, will bring valley snow in June! Here is a quick peek at the forecast for very early Tuesday morning: Of course there is not enough energy for any accumulation and the ground is very warm. However, just the idea that it could hit 95 today and then be in the 30's for highs (in the Sierra and foothills) on Tuesday is pretty amazing. Blame that bi

After nearly 2 months of stable weather, a strong storm for this time of year, has moved into our area and is bringing some very welcome precipitation. Back in the beginning of April, our La Nina conditions died and moved into ENSO-neutral conditions. That brought on our very stable weather until this storm. Does this mean another weather pattern change could be upon us? In a word no. Our weather will quickly recover and become stable again gradually getting warmer as summer approaches. I believe this summer will bring above average temperatures. We cannot have below average precip because we average nearly no precip in the months of June, July and August combined. Many of the weather models have our ENSO-neutral (ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions possibly transitioning into El Nino by the September, October time frame. Why does this matter? Simple, El Nino will almost certainly bring us above average precip for the winter of 2012/2013. After going below normal for 2011

Again, my day job has prevented me studying the weather patterns. My apologies. Things should settle down in the coming months, I hope! We are in the midst of a very stormy pattern that is going to give the Sierra good dumpage over the next 3 days. The majority of that will come late Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. We are expecting 2-3 feet at the Western Crest of the Sierra and 10-18 inches in Carson range, above 7,000 feet. The snow levels will drop as this system brings in a potent cold front. There will be some valley spillover in the form of rain and then snow late on Friday. Some areas in the foothills could pick up close to .75 inches of rain by Friday night. Here is a look at the precip forecast through Saturday afternoon: Here is a look at the forecast for early Friday morning. This storm will effect Central through Northern California: Early Friday Morning If you are worrying about water for the summer, we did pick up close to 250 inches of snow at t

First let me apologize for my absence. The day job keeps getting in the way. You may notice no advertisement on this website ... there will never be any. Therefore, unfortunately, I have to find gainful employment elsewhere. If there was going to be a major dump this weekend, I would have been on it. As it is, the storm door opened just too wide. That allowed the storm to dig south down the coast and go right past us. Recall that the blocking ridge of high pressure, which was responsible for our dry fall and early winter, needs to be in just the right place. What has happened this weekend, is the ridge has moved too far south and west. However, the good news is that Southern California will get some much needed rain. I believe by end of day Monday, the Carson Range should get another 3-5 inches of snow. Take a look. The first picture is our current conditions. Notice how far west and south the ridge of high pressure is. With no blocking, the storms can move straight down the coast. T

Short Term This next wave looks like a direct hit. Here is the forecast for early tomorrow morning from the EC weather model: There will be periods of 3 inches (or more) an hour snowfall. The storm will spill over into the leeward valleys in the form of rain. With this storm comes some very cold air which will settle in for the next couple of days along with additional snow showers and additional snow accumulations in the mountains. The difference in snow amounts between the Carson Range and Sierra have been amazing this week. The Sierra on the west side of Tahoe has picked up a whopping 3-4 times the snowfall. The difference in the approaching storm will not be so stark. In fact look for a major blizzard late tonight and tomorrow in the Carson range with very heavy snow and high winds. I expect the Carson range to come in at between 2-5 feet and the Sierra with slightly more, around 3-6 feet in the next 3 days. The high Sierra south and west of Tahoe will have places that

Overall Discussion Our two storms are quickly turning into the three storms. One is poised to come into our area tonight, then another late Thursday and another early Saturday. Tonight's storm will last well into tomorrow and we will get a very short break prior to the Thursday night event. Here is a look at the updated precip totals through Friday, this does not include Saturday's event which may be the biggest of them all: This forecast by the NAM weather model has some areas of the western Sierra picking up 10+ inches of liquid precip. This truly is a gigantic event for this time of year. All the mountain areas should pick up a minimum of 3-6 inches with the Carson Range probably hovering around the 4 inch mark by end of day Friday. These storms will start cold and then tap into sub tropical moisture which will raise snow levels from 5,500 feet to near 8,000 feet. Again, this is very difficult to predict and the NWS has been all over the board on this. Carson Range T

We have been discussing this for a few weeks now. Currently we are in between systems, but that will change starting tonight for the Western Sierra. Storm One Tuesday night through Wednesday The first big system will bring heavy snow to the Tahoe area. The snow levels can be variable but the local NWS is talking about 7,000 feet. This moisture is coming from the sub-tropics which means two things. 1. Lots of it. 2. Less predictable snow levels. Here is a look at the EC forecast for late Tuesday into early Wednesday: There is a large moisture tap for this wave and the Sierra will see copious amounts of snow. Most of the precip for the Carson range will fall on Wednesday, but there should be a large band of snow to dump between 12 and 18 inches ... or maybe more, at Mt. Rose Tuesday and Wednesday. Storm Two Friday/Saturday/Sunday The exact timing of this event is still up in the air. It looks like it will start Friday afternoon and wind up early Sunday morning. This storm is t