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Showing posts from December, 2015

One More Storm, Then Cold, Dry Period

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We have one more storm on tap. That storm will usher in very cold air and move quickly through the area. Unfortunately, this storm is moisture starved. Here is a look at the forecast for about noon on Christmas Eve:


This storm will quickly exit our area and leave behind very cold air and very deep valley inversions, especially this coming weekend. Winds will not be nearly as strong and there is a good chance that the lifts keep spinning on Christmas Eve day, during the storm. With the heavy snow we received over the last several days, Christmas day could bring a champagne powder day. For all things powder, be sure to visit the best Mt. Rose site: Unofficial Mt. Rose, they will let you know if the lifts are spinning and the kind of conditions that can be expected. I am expeciting 6-12 inches of very light powder for the Carson Range starting around 8:00am on Christmas eve and ending that evening.

I see a lot of cold and no major storms perhaps through the end of the year. However, that…

Warm, Wet Pattern Starts Tomorrow

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A series of weaker, warmer storms are headed our way that will bring snow to most of the Sierra and rain to the valleys. The big question is how much snow? My answer is: A lot. First allow me my disclaimer, the models are all over the place, there is serious moisture available for any storms headed our way and there are several storms poised to hit.

The first of these systems comes in late Friday or very early Saturday. That system will weaken and clip Tahoe. Most of the precip will stay west of the lake but I do expect some accumulating snow for the Carson range. Here is a look at the forecast for midnight on Friday:


This will stick with us for some time as the pattern is very wet. Look for snow or snow showers all the way up to the 24th. At that time a larger storm comes in and has great potential for really hitting Tahoe on Christmas Eve or thereabouts.

Here is a look at the forecast for the morning of the 24th. This storm will move into Tahoe on the 23rd, pick up moisture and stre…

Storm Update and Future Forecast

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A very cold storm is knocking on the door. It will bring high winds to the party as well. In fact when you wake up tomorrow morning, there is a very good chance the lifts at Mt. Rose will be closed as slide mountain could be seeing Category 4 Hurricane winds (130 mph).

Right now, it looks like the snowfall will be intense but short lived. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow starting at around noon and lasting into the evening. There will be some shadowing effect, which will slightly limit the amount of snow in the Carson Range:



This system has a very adequate moisture tap, however there are no inland systems to act as a blocking force so it will quickly move through our area. By around 6:00 in the evening here is what it should look like:


Finally, here is what the EC model see's in the way of total precip for this storm:


Snow levels will start at around 6,000 feet. This will be all snow for all of Tahoe. The western shore ski areas will get the most snow out of this system…

Storms Update

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The winter storm that is knocking on our door right now is on track to produce heavy snow for the Lake Tahoe area. For most of Tahoe its arrival will be early tomorrow morning. Amazingly the EC model nutted this thing over a week ago and the timing is nearly perfect. Here is a look at the forecast for early tomorrow morning:


This is a strong storm that is tapping into a subtropical moisture plume. In fact take a look at the satellite right now:


You can see our next storm located off the Oregon and Washington coast. This is a bigger storm and will bring even more snow to Tahoe.

For the Carson Range, this will be all snow above 7000 feet. Snow levels will start there or slightly higher and quickly fall. In addition, the shadowing effect, which has been prevalent for our last few storms, will not be so strong. So I look for heavy snow in the Carson range through next Tuesday. There will be a slight break, but the 2nd storm will arrive Sunday in the early afternoon. Here is a look at that…

Stormy Week Ahead

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As the models converge on a very stormy week, we are starting to see indications that the rains from the western Pacific are starting to make it here with a little bit more strength. First lets look at the upcoming week. There are a series of waves headed our way:

Sunday Dec 6, 12:00pm


This storm will be much better for the west shore of the lake but I still expect 2-4 inches for the Carson Range, 12-18 for the Western Crest of the Sierra.
There will be a series of these small shortwaves that will be cast our way. We should pick up another few inches ahead of a much bigger storm that we have been talking about for a few days now.
Thursday Dec 10, 12:00pm





















This is the best chance we have of a major storm. This will pick up moisture steaming across the Pacific and should deposit it all over Tahoe, including the Carson Range and Mt. Rose. I am looking for 10-20 inches out of this (Carson Range) and if things align perfectly, we could be talking more.
Sunday Dec 13, 2:00pm















This storm has some…

Fast Moving Storm Will Bring Wind, Cold and Snow

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This storm that is knocking on the door will be here and gone before you know it. However, there is some moisture associated with this storm that could see snowfall rates around 2 inches per hour for several hours, especially north and west of Lake Tahoe near the Sierra Crest. Shadowing is strong, so precip amounts will be much less for the Carson Range. We could be talking 2 feet for the western crest and about 6-8 inches for the Northern Carson Range.

The good news on several model runs today is it appears next week could bring us a series of shortwave events ending with a warm, wet storm around the 10th of the month. This is a much better solution that what we have been looking at for the last week, and perhaps the long range will pick up on a very fluid weather pattern. One thing is for sure, the Pacific Northwest is going to be exceptionally wet and rainy. Some models are showing 2 feet of liquid precipitation for Washington State over the next 10 days. We are hoping that the pat…