Showing posts from February, 2024

Significant Storm(s) Knocking on the Door; Record March?

The NWS has issued a blizzard warning for the leeward valleys of Northern Nevada. These guys are professionals and are very good at what they do. In addition, we are looking at the possibility of over 10 feet of snow for the Sierra, including the Carson range. Our forecast is mountain snow through March 15th on most days! We could see an additional 10-15 feet of snow on Mt. Rose by the middle of March. Here is some timing: Thursday Night 2/29 The storm approaches and begins to slam the West side of Lake Tahoe. Even the leading edge of this storm is cold, we see initial snow levels below Lake Tahoe, which is great news for all resorts. Friday Late Afternoon 3/1 The storm stalls and gathers steam. This portion of the storm will deliver very significant snowfall over the Sierra. Snow begins in the Leeward valleys after starting with rain. Saturday Night 3/2 The storm remains stalled. Notice how the cold air meets the warm air right over Lake Tahoe. What a party this will be! Sunday Evenin

Colder Storms Heading Our Way

In an about face, El Nino has decided to send us some Arctic air along with some tropical air. These two air masses are going to meet right over Lake Tahoe. We believe the Arctic air mass will win out in the end and bring about a week's worth of snow at much lower elevations. Things begin next Tuesday with a weak system that will leave very little snow but bring it high winds. The party really gets started about midday on Thursday (2/29): We are on the outer rings of precipitation of a massive storm to the north. That storm is going to charge south, run into a much warmer air mass and stall. Here is the timing: Friday (3/1) late afternoon Saturday 3/2, Late Morning (storm stalled)   Sunday 3/3, Early Morning  We will feel the remnants of this storm through Tuesday (3/5). Temperatures will not recover and stay well below average through at least March 9th. The majority of the precip will come on Friday, Saturday and Sunday of next week. Here is the precip forecast for the event: If

3 Storms Knocking On Door; Cooler Storms Begin in March

We have 3 storms sitting out in the Pacific Ocean ready to make landfall and bring rain and snow to the area. These are warmer storms, but will turn progressively cooler. Then around the 28th, a strong area of Low Pressure sitting off the BC Coast, combined with a ridge of high pressure well off the California coast, will create an alley for much cooler storms at the beginning of March. Typical of El Nino, we have many weaker storms. These storms are, however, beginning to add up as we are now at about our average precipitation after a very slow start. There is no end in sight for the storm train. Here is what we are seeing and when. Notice the red, blue and light blue lines. That represents temperatures with the light blue being much cooler and red being much warmer. Today @ 10pm (2/17) Tomorrow @ 9pm (2/18) Monday @ 6am (2/19) The storm starting Sunday will stall and dump tons of rain over most of California. This storm should put us above our seasonal average. After about 4-5 day br

Short Break, Storms Return Friday

The last weather pattern was an overachiever. The first of the season! Mt. Rose even managed to open the world famous Chutes. For those of us fortunate to be there on Thursday, they were spectacular.  We are in for some stable weather through Thursday with gradually increasing temperatures that should hover around average for this time of year. Then, a major pattern change comes to Tahoe and all of California. This pattern has some potential for some very serious snowfall in the Sierra and even the potential for heavy rain in the leeward valleys of Reno and Carson City. Here is what we are seeing now: Friday night (2/16) Saturday night (2/17) Monday Afternoon (2/19) - Notice the moisture tail and warm/cold air convergence Tuesday night (2/20) You get the idea. We have a very active pattern that comes inland sometime Friday and could last for a week or more. A few qualifiers here. The GFS model is very bullish on this event. The EC believes there could be a rain shadow effect for the Ca

Next Storm Set For Sunday

Warm moist air is going to collide with very cold air from the north and create what should be a pretty decent storm. Remember, this last storm they were predicting up to 3 feet. We ended up with 6 inches in the Carson Range. This storm has some potential to carry over the Sierra into the leeward valleys of Nevada. Here is the latest forecast for Sunday Morning. This storm has a ton of moisture to work with. Snow levels are going to be tricky however. Very cold Northern air and very warm and moist Southern air. Our best guess is for snow levels to start around 8,000 feet on early Sunday morning. That will drop to lake level throughout the day. For the northern Sierra and Carson Ranges, the most reliable weather model has this storm cleared out by Monday morning. Mt. Rose should pick up 2-3 feet of snow. As we get on the backside of this storm, snow levels will drop to the valley floors so Monday morning traffic could be a nightmare. That is our best guess, but when you have two converg