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Showing posts from January, 2014

Storm Update and What's Ahead

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This very quick moving, storm has brought very beneficial moisture to all of Tahoe and the western Nevada valleys. It is not quite over. I expect another 2-4 inches up at Rose by Tomorrow. Some models are saying more. The snow levels started very high, near 10,000 feet, and took some time to move down. Therefore the resort snow totals are relatively low with Rose being the winner and accumulating 8-12 inches. That number should increase to near 16 inches by Friday with an outside chance of slightly more.

However the moisture impact should be significant because of the rain for nearly all resorts. We have been in a very dry spell and 2-3 inches of liquid precip has fallen in the Sierra all around Tahoe.

The California coast will pick up more moisture come Sunday as a system moves straight down the coast. There is some chance that we could pick up some of that.

I am focusing on a large storm for the following weekend, but that is still way out. Hopefully that holds together. Here is the…

As Storm Moves In, Will This Change Our Long Term Weather Pattern?

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A decent sized storm is poised to hit the Tahoe area and should leave behind 18-30 inches of snow for all areas around Tahoe above 8,000 feet. This storm, which is packing abundant moisture, will come in warm on late Wednesday. Snow levels will start out at about 8,000 feet. As the front moves through the snow levels will plunge to the valley floor by Friday morning. The Sierra Crest is forecast to pick up about 2.5 inches of liquid precip. Slightly lesser amounts can be expected for the Carson range. However, if you are a
Mt. Rose skier, the elevation of Rose is such that it will be the big benefactor of this storm with all snow. I would not be surprised to see a couple of feet by Friday afternoon.

The following is the EC total precip map for the event:



We are very pleased to finally get some moisture in the forecast. Does this suggest a change in the long term outlook? Remember, many forecasters had written off 2014 altogether (See Ken Clark at Accuweather.com). Or, does this repres…

Dry Weather Continues; Historic 13 Months

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As the rest of the country continues to get blasted by a very harsh winter, one of the coldest on record, we have been very well protected by a ridge of high pressure which has moved up the coast and is keeping us in warm weather and sunshine. Hard to complain about the weather. This should continue for at least the next 10 days. I will talk about day 10 shortly. First I want to show some charts on just how dry our weather has been.


This first map represents what is our traditional rainy season. Of course we know we were nearly shut out of any rain whatsoever. Notice almost all of Northern California has picked up less than 5% of the average rainfall for the rain season. Pretty Amazing and potentially catastrophic.


The major reservoirs in California are in big trouble. When they should be filling up, they are getting no water. In addition they are all very low because of the record dryness of 2013 (See  Previous Post).

I have been searching for the better part of two weeks for one of …

Suggestions For Changing The Weather Pattern

We like to have fun here at the TWB. If you are looking for hard core scientific data, perhaps you should read no further. I just wanted to let all my faithful readers know that I am doing what I can. In the last 2 days I have done the following:

Washed Car, Inside and OutCleaned Gravel and Salt of GarageSwept DrivewayRemoved Ski Rack from Car Number 4 could be the clincher!
The above list usually brings in some inclement weather. I believe if we all put our collective positive energy together, we can change the pattern ourselves!
I did look at both GFS and EC models and they are in agreement for a quick moving weather event on Sunday that could bring up to a foot of snow to the Sierra.

When it Changes it will Really Change. For Now, Looks Like the Status Quo

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I just looked at the latest EC run. Unfortunately, the smaller storms for this week appear to have fallen apart. Our blocking ridge is moving south, but also east. That means it will continue to block any storms from coming into our area ... yucksville!

There is a glimmer of hope for late Saturday into Sunday for some reasonable precip as the biggest of the systems will shove that ridge south and west, perhaps allowing for a short storm window. EC is still forecasting the following for Sunday morning:



Unfortunately, immediately after this storm our blocking ridge appears to be moving well north and east.

Remember this; There are no normal weather events. Forecasters rarely use the word normal, when they do it is a mistake. Especially for our area. There are only averages. 3 years ago we were inundated with record breaking snow. Parts of Squaw Valley had a season total of nearly 1,000 inches of the white stuff. The law of averages has caught up with us these past two years. However, th…

Enjoy This Weather, It Will Change Early Next Week

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A series of small systems could come through our area starting next Tuesday. The stormy weather could last through the following weekend with each system getting progressively larger culminating on the 11th with a major precip event. Again I say "could" because, as you know, weather forecasting has been challenging to say the least these past few months. Here is a look at the forecast larger storm for the weekend of the 11th:


My confidence of a major change is due to mounting evidence from a number of fronts. We first talked about the PNA and AO both going negative simultaneously. That should allow some of that Arctic air to slip into our weather pattern instead of the eastern 2/3 of the USA. The biggest change is the shifting of the blocking ridge of high pressure to a more traditional position. This should allow a storm corridor to form:

Here is a forecast look for this weekend:


As you can see, the blocking ridge of high pressure is in a terrible position. It has been ther…