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Winter Outlook: Warm Fall Could Give Way to Above Average Winter

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A blocking ridge of high pressure is firmly entrenched off the west coast and is not going anywhere for at least a few weeks. This will continue to bring very mild temperatures and no precipitation. We probably will not see a change in this pattern for around 3 weeks.


We still believe, however, that we should be in for an average to slightly above average precipitation total for the winter. We believe that by late December through the spring we are looking at El Nino conditions, albeit a weak to moderate El Nino.

We also believe that when the pattern changes, it could be significant.

First let's look into why we believe that despite the slow start to winter, we should recover with average to above average precipitation.

First of all there is El Nino, here is what we are seeing for the coming months:


Although, this is not a strong El Nino, it is still El Nino. Last year we were in a weak La Nina. When the equatorial  Pacific waters started warming we fell into a near neutral ENSO, …