Showing posts from November, 2019

Impressive Series of Storms will Continue to Pound Tahoe

I cannot remember such an active pattern so early in the season. I know, we were talking about what a slow start, but in true snow belt fashion, that all changed, seemingly overnight. The current storm will continue to bring in light snow to the northern Sierra. The track of that storm did shift south and Mammoth looks to be the big winner. Fear not, we are tracking 3 more massive storms in the next 15 days. Starting Saturday afternoon (11/30) and lasting through Monday night (12/2) this storm will bring a huge mixed bag of precipitation at a constant rate to Tahoe. We could even see some freezing rain in the leeward valleys. Here is a look at the storm around it's peak, early Sunday afternoon: This storm will stall out and continue to dump on Tahoe. Eventually it will then move south, then head back north and bring some additional moisture to us. All told this storm will effect our weather from Saturday through next Wednesday (12/4). Then the big storm moves in. This st

Storm(s) Update - Potential for 10+ feet of Snow in Next 2 Weeks

We are growing more and more confident that winter is here and the storm that is knocking at our door is the first in a series of storms that should deliver copious amounts of snow to both the mountains and valleys. First things first, both the GFS and EC models are in nearly complete alignment with this next storm. The timing looks to start late tomorrow afternoon and last though Wednesday. Then the low crawls out, but not before delivering additional snow on Thursday and Friday. This storm has strengthened and could deliver 1-3 feet of snow to all Tahoe resorts. We are now leaning in the 2-3 feet for Mt. Rose. The potential does exist for more. We have a number of blocking factors that are going to slow these storms down. That will cause them to linger over Tahoe and dump. The next storm is slated for Saturday night and it is large: This is also a much warmer storm that will impact So Cal more than No Cal. Snow levels could hover in the 8,000 foot range with thi

Weak to Moderate Storm for Wednesday; Major Pattern Change, Finally!

We are tracking a weak to moderate storm for Wednesday the 27th. We will take what we can get after a very slow start to winter. The models are surprisingly in agreement for this storm as it comes in from the NW (much better trajectory) starting very late Tuesday night. It should produce snow all the way to the valley floor and this will be a snow event for all Tahoe resorts at all elevations. Here is a look at the ECMWF forecast for around 10:00 pm Tuesday the 26th: This should be the first in a series of storms that could last into the middle of December or later. Buyer beware, we are looking quite a ways out and the GFS model is much more bullish on some major storms coming our way. We have been talking about this pattern change and it looks like it is nearly upon us. I just read a very interesting post at Unofficial Rose about when the lifts will spin to the top at Mt. Rose. Sven has more information about this than anybody else and I highly encourage you, if you ski/ride

Cooler Temps, Weak System then More Dry Weather; Possible Major Pattern Change for Early December

We have a very weak and dry system dropping down off the NW Coast of the US. It will pick up moisture from another weak system that will move in over Southern California. The northern system will drop temperatures, significantly. There is a slight chance of very light snow for the leeward Sierra. The major culprit for our dry weather, is that high pressure system off the west coast. That system has moved out a bit and allowed a nice alleyway for that Low to the north to drop down. But the High is very large and will force that low inland, way too soon. It will make it's way down to our area, but has no moisture tap to speak of. Our moisture will come in from the east so this will be an Eastern Sierra event. It is getting what little moisture it can from another Low Pressure system from the south: This weak system is really nothing but another cold slider, which can be great with a 10 foot base, but this will do little if any good. Mt. Rose could pick up a couple inches of

First Winter Storm Not Until December?

We are experiencing and will continue to experience a very slow start to winter. Average to above average temperatures should be in place, for the most part, for at least the next couple of weeks. We see little to no precipitation during that time. In fact, we see no significant precipitation until the beginning of December. Of course forecasting that far out can be very unreliable, but see our last post. As the models gather more data and the algorithms to analyze that data become smarter, long term forecasting becomes more accurate. Here is a look at the precip forecast between now and the 2nd of December: This is showing that during the next 3 weeks, Tahoe will pick up a total of less than 1 inch of liquid precip. However, around the 2nd of December we are seeing signs that a storm could move in. Here is a look at the precip total between December 2nd and December 6th: Again, forecasting storms this far out can be very unreliable, so take this with a grain of salt. Th