Posts

Showing posts from October, 2017

Winter Starts Again on Friday Morning

Image
What a beautiful stretch of weather we are currently enjoying. It's not over yet, but the end is near. We have a strong low pressure system that will work its way down from the Washington coast and bring a very stormy period to the Tahoe area. I see the period lasting from very early Friday morning through Sunday night. This storm will effect most of the state of California and does have a pretty adequate amount of moisture from which to work.

Here is a look at the storm at it's peak on late Saturday night:


This storm will tap into sub-tropical moisture and come in pretty warm. Hard to say the snow levels, but my guess is around 8,000. However, this storm will usher in a much cooler air mass and snow levels should drop at or even below lake level in time for the main precipitation event starting Saturday afternoon and lasting into Sunday.

Here is a look at the precip forecast for this event:


Finally, here is a look at the 384 hour GFS precip forecast, sent in by our chief mete…

Fall/Winter 2017-2018 Update - Walker Circulation Strengthens Suggesting Wet Cold Start and Drier Late Winter

Image
By Paul Huntington

I just wanted to highlight some recent atmospheric and oceanic observations that point toward a "possible" drier than average Winter for Central California with cooler northern storms (Inside Sliders) rotating down from the Aleutian Islands and less atmospheric rivers than last year, however the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)--that has been fairly quiet and inactive recently- is showing signs of waking back up along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in proximity of the Maritime/Indonesia region or West Pacific along with the upwelling directly off Peru (localized El Nino) slowing down allowing warm sea surface temperatures to establish within the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Meaning things could change late Fall into Winter and recently our wind patterns/oceans have been showing tendencies toward strong variability in the strengths of El Nino indices- and even going from medium strength La Nina to very strong localized coastal El Nino off…

When Will the Storm Machine Start Cranking?

Image
Although it has been a cool fall, we have not seen any winter storms thus far. Currently we have our persistent ridge of high pressure blocking storms and forcing them north, take a look:



 However, I am seeing a change in that pattern with two storms, one from the south and one from the north, squeezing that ridge out to sea. That change looks to be around the 19th or 20th of October. The massive storm in the image above, will move south and split into a large and small storm. The smaller storm will move way south while the larger storm will come ashore in Washington. Here is a look at the forecast for very early on the 18th:


The storm to the north will drop a wave south, right into the Tahoe area. That will pick up sub-tropical moisture and deliver it to the Sierra. Here is a look at the 19th of October:



I do not expect any major precipitation, but we could see up to a foot in the Carson Range, as this storm's trajectory looks pretty good. This is an early season warmer type of s…