Tahoe Weather Blog

We have a series of very warm storms approaching the Tahoe area. We talked about this in our last post. These storms and the associated precip are born in the South and West and are not working with much cold air. That will do two things: limit the power of the storms and bring mostly rain below 8,000 feet starting later today (Sunday 12/17). Mt. Rose is usually the big winner in the El Nino years. Of course the exception is that these storms oftentimes are not powerful enough to stay completely in tact when crossing the Western Sierra Crest. So the Carson Range and Mt. Rose in particular can get shadowed out. That is what is going to happen this coming week. Notice the precipitation is staying mostly to the west of Lake Tahoe. Some will make it over, but the higher elevations on the western side of the lake will pick up more precipitation. Much of this is due to a week storm that really has no cold air to work with as it moves on shore. It will actually move up and down the coast befo

We predicted above average snowfall for the year. I am sure that most readers are thinking we are crazy. This has been a slow start to say the least. That is about to change, at least precipitation wise. A series of warmer storms will pull moisture from the tropics and deposit it all over California and Northern Nevada. The fun gets started a week from today. Remember these are very warm storms and snow levels will most likely be above Lake Tahoe (6,400) feet. Monday December 18th: Friday December 22nd Christmas Day A couple of things with noting here: These storms are progressively turning colder. This is a storm train where the storms are also getting stronger. We are looking through Christmas Day, but this pattern is showing no signs of changing. These storms are typical of El Nino, in that they are warmer and not quite as strong as the storms we were seeing last year. They are also more frequent which can lead to heavy precipitation with very little letup, sometimes for weeks. Fina

We have another reenforcing shot of cold air and what looks like a pretty decent slider type system for Thursday (11/30). Sliders come out of the north and have a much greater effect on the Eastern Sierra. Here is a look at the forecast for very late on Thursday as this storm moves in: We are looking at all snow for all Tahoe resorts with accumulations of around 6-12 inches. We can expect this pattern for the next couple of weeks as the models have several smaller systems which are capable of 6-12 inches moving in.  This weekend we will get a warm up with temperatures much warmer ahead of the next system which is slated for the 7th of December. When will it start to snow big time? We have been studying the long range forecasts and this pattern may persist through December. However, if you believe any of this, we could see a major pattern change as we ring in 2024. Of course that is pure speculation by the models, but that is all we have to go on for now. Stay tuned ...

 This storm which has stubbornly stayed off the coast while sending precip to Southern California, has shifted north, grabbed a little cold air and will form right over Lake Tahoe. This is not the event we were hoping for 10 days ago, but Mt. Rose could see a foot of snow which will greatly help them to open additional terrain. After this storm, however, it looks like an extended dry period. Here is the forecast for 6:00 this afternoon (Saturday 11/18): There will be a shadowing effect, so the crest above 7,500 feet on the west side of Lake Tahoe will pick up 1-2 feet. Here is the precip forecast, again, about 6-12 inches for Mt. Rose. This being a very warm storm will produce quite a bit of rain below 7,000 feet. The precip forecast for the 2 weeks following this event is nada, let's hope that changes. Stay Tuned ...

I am not going to waste a lot of your time here, the storm which we forecast split and will mostly die before making it anywhere near the Tahoe area. In addition, the weather models, which whiffed on this first storm of the season are predicting very dry weather for at least the next couple of weeks. Here is the forecasted total precip in liquid over the next two weeks: Looks like a slow start to the season ... Mt. Rose made a bunch of snow and is open top to bottom if you want to get some turns in. Stay Tuned ...

Storm Watch Today's storm is nothing but a small teaser for what looks to be a major winter storm in about 8-9 days. We are tracking a major storm that both the EC and GFS weather models are in very good agreement. Here is a look at the forecast for the 15th of November: If this storm holds together it will begin somewhere late on the 13th and could bring copious amounts of precip to the Sierra and Carson Ranges of Lake Tahoe. We believe this will be all snow for Mt. Rose as snow levels will start high but quickly come down. The following is the forecasted precip for the next 10 days. Needless to say, if this hits as all snow, Mt. Rose should be able to open quite a bit of terrain as we are talking about upwards of 4 feet. Let's hope it does hold together as we are seeing a ridge in the jet over our area moving forward, not unexpected this time of year. Season Watch We have been very lucky the last several years with our season snowfall predictions. We were the only site that p

I hope you are enjoying the pleasant morning and early afternoon. But change is a coming! A strong cold front will push down the eastern Sierra in a slider like system. These systems are very hard to predict when it comes to precipitation, but we are thinking less than 6 inches for the Carson Range. Here is the forecast for late to tomorrow night: Notice the very cold air has already pushed through. That will drop our temperatures by 20-30 degrees, at least and plunge us back into the 20-30 degree below average range. The good news: high pressure is going to take over and our temps will quickly recover. We could even see some above average temperatures by next weekend. Here is the forecast for late Friday night (4/7): Notice the warm air stretches all the way up into BC! This should mean some stellar spring skiing conditions for Mt. Rose, probably starting next Thursday. This warm air should stick around until at least the middle of April! Stay Tuned ...

This winter has been one for the ages. Ironically, this is the 2nd snowiest winter for the Sierra behind the winter of 1958. It has also been much colder than average, which means the snowpack is sticking around much later than usual. As my friend Sven mentioned in his last post  , Mammoth has announced they will be open through July! Here are some charts that really illustrate the type of winter we have had. Remember, most California reservoirs are now completely full! Do not look for a quick warmup, here is the temp outlook for the next couple of weeks, which is almost laughable ... almost:  Here is the % of average precip for this winter: How snowy has it been in the Sierra? In addition, we received nearly 8 inches of snow last night in South Reno. Here is the model run for predicted precipitation last night and early this morning: Everybody got fooled by this one, including us! Mother Nature is just toying with us, obviously! Stay Tuned ...

Winters tight grip on the Tahoe area will continue into the foreseeable future. We have a series of storms and reenforcing cold fronts that are stacked up and waiting to continue the onslaught on the Sierra and Tahoe especially. Tuesday 3/28 This is a cooler storm, will likely produce snow above 6,000 feet but those levels could drop as well. For now looks like rain for the valley. This storm will send waves at us following the main front for a few days. Monday 4/3 Very cold air dips way down into Central California. Wednesday (4/5) If this holds together, it will usher in a very stormy pattern. Saturday 4/8 Could this be a late season AR event? It is two weeks out, so no guarantee, but anything is possible this year! Finally, here is the precip forecast for the next couple of weeks. Amazingly, the Central Sierra around Mammoth is looking at another 10-12 feet of snow. The western crest should see 6-8 feet while the Carson range is in the 3-5 foot range. Stay Tuned ...

After several years of mostly below average precipitation and above average temperatures, Ma Nature is doing her very typical catch up act. Averages exist for a reason and really have not changed since we started keeping records. So we were due for above average precip and below average temps. Ma Nature has us covered. Some of the snow pictures are truly unbelievable. For those of you who did not notice, our friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose  is back. Sven is a backcountry expert and I would strongly suggest following his posts and subscribing ... it could save your life. Ok, back to current weather. After a few days where our temperatures finally got to average, another cold front moved in last night and is reenforcing as we speak. We have several storms in the next 10 days, but these storms are nothing like what we have been seeing. Here is what we are seeing: Tuesday 3/21 This is a fast moving storm that will bring rain to the valleys and snow above 6,500 feet. We do not see any h

A very powerful jet stream is pulling tropical moisture from the South Pacific and sending it up into a trough of low pressure and dumping it all over California and the Lake Tahoe area. We will continue to see heavy rain for the valleys and heavy snow for the mountains in the 6,500 to 8,000 foot elevation. Snow levels will continue to fluctuate through the weekend as we will receive several waves of additional precipitation. Snow levels during these warmer events will fluctuate and are very difficult to predict. Mt. Rose will receive all snow and should pick up an addition 1-3 feet over the weekend to go with the 2 feet they have already received. This powerful jet, which goes right through the Tahoe area will continue bring strong winds.  But that is not all. Another large, warm and moist storm is on tap for Tuesday: This storm will again start with very high snow levels, in the 8,000 foot range. As the storm moves through snow levels will drop. Starting Wednesday (3/15) we will begi

We are anticipating a significant pattern change starting around Friday, March 10th. We will transition from a cold, stormy pattern to a very warm, stormy pattern. The winter of 22/23 continues.  The storm train starting on Friday is born in the south and will knock this Arctic air out of our area and pack significant tropical moisture. Snow levels will start very high with several of these storms. Currently, we have a snowpack as low as the foothills and a very significant snowpack in the mountains. This winter has been much colder than average so our typical snow melt has simply not occurred. Which is a good thing. Unless of course we start to experience heavy rain at high elevations. This series of storms could bring some flooding concerns. Here is a look at the forecasted storms along with dates and times: Friday March 10th, 12:00am Monday March 13th, 2:00am - Same storm, tail end will bring some cooler air Wednesday March 15th - Beginning of another warm storm Saturday March 18th

The models are changing their minds about as often as the average person changes their underwear. One thing they have consolidated on is the storm this weekend and the aftereffects for next week. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow evening: Another cold storm and should be all snow for all Tahoe resorts. 1-3 feet depending on the amount of shadowing. This storm will stick around through the middle of next week with weak waves of hit and miss precipitation. After that, it looks like high pressure will settle in. The big southern storm we talked about looks like it is going to get split with one half moving north of us the other half moving south. However, the models appear to change their minds on this daily. For now, however, it looks like we will have a pretty clear sailing, next weekend. Stay Tuned ...

I feel like this is a retraction. In our last post we talked about and showed a forecast from both the GFS and EC weather models that showed the possibility that spring may actually arrive in the form of a big warmup. Those models and all others have done a complete about face. Instead we are looking at more storms that could last into the foreseeable future. Let's start with next weekend's storm. Right now a weak area of low pressure is going to camp right off the west coast and bring multiple waves of precipitation to the area: This storm will begin to impact Tahoe on Saturday (3/4) and will stick around until it joins forces with a storm from the south on the following Thursday (3/9). An already saturated Southern California is about to get hit with another large storm. This will bring large amounts of moisture to the entire state of California. Then, right on its heels things get really interesting. We have 3 areas of low pressure that should connect and form an AR event on

The current storm cycle will continue on and off  (mostly on), through next Saturday (3/4), then it appears our pattern will change to dry and possibly warm. Both our favorite models are predicting a huge warm up starting around the 8th of March. We could actually go from lows in the single digits to highs in the 70's. First, we have a series of storms that are going to continue for the next week. Here is a look at what we are seeing: Sunday 2/26 @ 4:00pm Monday 2/27 @ 4:00 pm Wednesday 3/1 @ 4am Saturday 3/4 @6:00pm So the pattern stays active until the 5th of March as the storms slowly move away and high pressure begins to take over. Take a look at the forecast for the 9th of March: That is some very warm air all the way up into BC. That trough of Low Pressure is going to bring up some sub-tropical air. Of course with the huge snowpack, that could cause a very quick melt off, so we will have to keep an eye on that. Here is the forecasted precip totals for the next week: Looks lik

Yesterday's cold front was just the beginning of a series of storms poised to hit the Tahoe Area for around the next week. We are seeing a rather significant Rain Shadow associated with these storms. Put another way, the Western Sierra will receive much more snow than the Eastern Sierra around Tahoe. The Central Sierra will be picking up a ton of moisture which will be all snow. For Tahoe, the best chance for significant snows come early Friday (2/24) and the following Monday (2/27). Again we are seeing a Sierra Shadowing effect for the eastern Sierra. Here is a look at late Monday: We expect snow on and off through Wednesday (3/1). Here is a look at the precip forecast. Notice the difference between the Western and Eastern Sierra around Lake Tahoe: By the time this storm cycle ends, this will still be a significant precip event, just more so for the Central Sierra. Obviously, this brings very beneficial rains for most of California as their reservoirs continue to fill up.  This wi