Tahoe Weather Blog

This winter has been one for the ages. Ironically, this is the 2nd snowiest winter for the Sierra behind the winter of 1958. It has also been much colder than average, which means the snowpack is sticking around much later than usual. As my friend Sven mentioned in his last post  , Mammoth has announced they will be open through July! Here are some charts that really illustrate the type of winter we have had. Remember, most California reservoirs are now completely full! Do not look for a quick warmup, here is the temp outlook for the next couple of weeks, which is almost laughable ... almost:  Here is the % of average precip for this winter: How snowy has it been in the Sierra? In addition, we received nearly 8 inches of snow last night in South Reno. Here is the model run for predicted precipitation last night and early this morning: Everybody got fooled by this one, including us! Mother Nature is just toying with us, obviously! Stay Tuned ...

Winters tight grip on the Tahoe area will continue into the foreseeable future. We have a series of storms and reenforcing cold fronts that are stacked up and waiting to continue the onslaught on the Sierra and Tahoe especially. Tuesday 3/28 This is a cooler storm, will likely produce snow above 6,000 feet but those levels could drop as well. For now looks like rain for the valley. This storm will send waves at us following the main front for a few days. Monday 4/3 Very cold air dips way down into Central California. Wednesday (4/5) If this holds together, it will usher in a very stormy pattern. Saturday 4/8 Could this be a late season AR event? It is two weeks out, so no guarantee, but anything is possible this year! Finally, here is the precip forecast for the next couple of weeks. Amazingly, the Central Sierra around Mammoth is looking at another 10-12 feet of snow. The western crest should see 6-8 feet while the Carson range is in the 3-5 foot range. Stay Tuned ...

After several years of mostly below average precipitation and above average temperatures, Ma Nature is doing her very typical catch up act. Averages exist for a reason and really have not changed since we started keeping records. So we were due for above average precip and below average temps. Ma Nature has us covered. Some of the snow pictures are truly unbelievable. For those of you who did not notice, our friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose  is back. Sven is a backcountry expert and I would strongly suggest following his posts and subscribing ... it could save your life. Ok, back to current weather. After a few days where our temperatures finally got to average, another cold front moved in last night and is reenforcing as we speak. We have several storms in the next 10 days, but these storms are nothing like what we have been seeing. Here is what we are seeing: Tuesday 3/21 This is a fast moving storm that will bring rain to the valleys and snow above 6,500 feet. We do not see any h

A very powerful jet stream is pulling tropical moisture from the South Pacific and sending it up into a trough of low pressure and dumping it all over California and the Lake Tahoe area. We will continue to see heavy rain for the valleys and heavy snow for the mountains in the 6,500 to 8,000 foot elevation. Snow levels will continue to fluctuate through the weekend as we will receive several waves of additional precipitation. Snow levels during these warmer events will fluctuate and are very difficult to predict. Mt. Rose will receive all snow and should pick up an addition 1-3 feet over the weekend to go with the 2 feet they have already received. This powerful jet, which goes right through the Tahoe area will continue bring strong winds.  But that is not all. Another large, warm and moist storm is on tap for Tuesday: This storm will again start with very high snow levels, in the 8,000 foot range. As the storm moves through snow levels will drop. Starting Wednesday (3/15) we will begi

We are anticipating a significant pattern change starting around Friday, March 10th. We will transition from a cold, stormy pattern to a very warm, stormy pattern. The winter of 22/23 continues.  The storm train starting on Friday is born in the south and will knock this Arctic air out of our area and pack significant tropical moisture. Snow levels will start very high with several of these storms. Currently, we have a snowpack as low as the foothills and a very significant snowpack in the mountains. This winter has been much colder than average so our typical snow melt has simply not occurred. Which is a good thing. Unless of course we start to experience heavy rain at high elevations. This series of storms could bring some flooding concerns. Here is a look at the forecasted storms along with dates and times: Friday March 10th, 12:00am Monday March 13th, 2:00am - Same storm, tail end will bring some cooler air Wednesday March 15th - Beginning of another warm storm Saturday March 18th

The models are changing their minds about as often as the average person changes their underwear. One thing they have consolidated on is the storm this weekend and the aftereffects for next week. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow evening: Another cold storm and should be all snow for all Tahoe resorts. 1-3 feet depending on the amount of shadowing. This storm will stick around through the middle of next week with weak waves of hit and miss precipitation. After that, it looks like high pressure will settle in. The big southern storm we talked about looks like it is going to get split with one half moving north of us the other half moving south. However, the models appear to change their minds on this daily. For now, however, it looks like we will have a pretty clear sailing, next weekend. Stay Tuned ...

I feel like this is a retraction. In our last post we talked about and showed a forecast from both the GFS and EC weather models that showed the possibility that spring may actually arrive in the form of a big warmup. Those models and all others have done a complete about face. Instead we are looking at more storms that could last into the foreseeable future. Let's start with next weekend's storm. Right now a weak area of low pressure is going to camp right off the west coast and bring multiple waves of precipitation to the area: This storm will begin to impact Tahoe on Saturday (3/4) and will stick around until it joins forces with a storm from the south on the following Thursday (3/9). An already saturated Southern California is about to get hit with another large storm. This will bring large amounts of moisture to the entire state of California. Then, right on its heels things get really interesting. We have 3 areas of low pressure that should connect and form an AR event on

The current storm cycle will continue on and off  (mostly on), through next Saturday (3/4), then it appears our pattern will change to dry and possibly warm. Both our favorite models are predicting a huge warm up starting around the 8th of March. We could actually go from lows in the single digits to highs in the 70's. First, we have a series of storms that are going to continue for the next week. Here is a look at what we are seeing: Sunday 2/26 @ 4:00pm Monday 2/27 @ 4:00 pm Wednesday 3/1 @ 4am Saturday 3/4 @6:00pm So the pattern stays active until the 5th of March as the storms slowly move away and high pressure begins to take over. Take a look at the forecast for the 9th of March: That is some very warm air all the way up into BC. That trough of Low Pressure is going to bring up some sub-tropical air. Of course with the huge snowpack, that could cause a very quick melt off, so we will have to keep an eye on that. Here is the forecasted precip totals for the next week: Looks lik

Yesterday's cold front was just the beginning of a series of storms poised to hit the Tahoe Area for around the next week. We are seeing a rather significant Rain Shadow associated with these storms. Put another way, the Western Sierra will receive much more snow than the Eastern Sierra around Tahoe. The Central Sierra will be picking up a ton of moisture which will be all snow. For Tahoe, the best chance for significant snows come early Friday (2/24) and the following Monday (2/27). Again we are seeing a Sierra Shadowing effect for the eastern Sierra. Here is a look at late Monday: We expect snow on and off through Wednesday (3/1). Here is a look at the precip forecast. Notice the difference between the Western and Eastern Sierra around Lake Tahoe: By the time this storm cycle ends, this will still be a significant precip event, just more so for the Central Sierra. Obviously, this brings very beneficial rains for most of California as their reservoirs continue to fill up.  This wi

The current pattern which is marked by weak cold fronts dropping down and leaving us with a few inches of snow and very cold weather is going to change back to a very stormy pattern in about a week.  The first step is a storm to our north (2/21) that will knock our ridge of high pressure considerably further west. That will open the storm door. Next, a series of storms will come into our area getting progressively stronger, notice the ridge way out at sea: Wednesday (2/22) Friday (2/24) Monday (2/27) Wednesday (3/1) This pattern looks similar to late December and if it holds, March comes in like a lion. Here is the forecast total liquid precip for the week starting February 21st: If you are wondering if you are reading that correctly, yes it says 10-12 inches of liquid precip which could translate into 8-15 feet of snow for most of Tahoe. As has been the case this winter, these will be cold storms and as of now it looks like this will be all snow for all Tahoe Resorts and quite a bit o

If it seems like our temperatures have been below average since October, that is because for the most part they have, with few exceptions. That is not going to change anytime soon and we are tracking what could be another major snow event in about 12 days. First, we have several weak, cold systems heading our way, starting tonight (2/10): Temperatures will quickly recover until the next cold front comes in on Tuesday (2/14). Nothing very exciting about this, just a lot of cold air coming down the Eastern Sierra. Temperatures will remain quite cool until about the 21st. Then it appears we have what could be a major pattern change, as a very large and wet storm will shove our ridge of high pressure out in the Pacific and could bring a series of precipitation events to Tahoe. Here is the forecast for late on the 22nd: A lot can change between now and then, but our two favorite weather models are showing this. Stay Tuned ...

Another storm is spinning up as I write this. That storm will deliver moderate snowfall to the mountains and a decent amount of rain to the valleys.  Here is the forecast for Sunday morning. This storm should last through the day and into the evening hours. The heaviest snow will be on the West side of Lake Tahoe: This will be a fast moving storm but has plenty of moisture to work with. Here is the precipitation amount forecast: We are looking at 1-2 feet for Mt. Rose and 2+ feet West of Lake Tahoe above 7,500 feet. The snow level for this system looks to be right at Lake Level. Looking past this storm we will warm up to near average temperatures. There may be a small disturbance around the 11th of February. Stay Tuned ...

We have a cold slider system coming in for Sunday. This system will usher in some arctic air and bring low temperatures near zero in the Sierra and low teens for the valleys.  This will NOT be a big snow maker system. In fact the ECMWF weather model is predicting almost no snow for the Sierra. The above forecast is the GFS weather model.  It will be warm up until Sunday, finally! Then it will take a few days to recover but we may start to see some average temperatures for this time year later in the week. We see no other systems in sight, but we all know that can change. Stay Tuned ...

We have one weak storm left in what has been an amazing storm cycle, even by Tahoe standards. This cycle lasted over 3 weeks and produced close to 20 feet of snow for Mt. Rose. Oops, I am not supposed to forecast what has already happened, but I could not resist.  Late tomorrow night our last storm in this cycle will arrive. Notice the blocking ridge of high pressure to the west. That will cut off any significant moisture tap.  We are looking at 4-8 inches for Slide Mountain and a few flurries for the valley. This is a cold storm and will bring with it some very cold air. That cold air will stick with us until the end of the month when it looks like our next storm cycle will begin: This is still a few weeks out so our confidence is pretty low. But the models do have that west coast ridge of high pressure getting shoved much further west. If you are a regular reader of this blog, you know that means the storm door opens. Stay Tuned ...

In about a week (1/17), the metaphorical caboose will pass by the station and high pressure will setup off the California coast which will push the storms north. Between now and then, we still have a series of storms that will wreak even more havoc in California. Having said all that, the reservoirs should be filled and all the gloomy predictions of the world coming to a quick end because you drive a mini-van, will go away for another year or so.  The largest of the remaining storms is poised to slam the Tahoe Area late Friday (1/13 - Yes, Friday the 13th) or early Saturday. That will be followed by another storm and last through most of Monday (1/16). That will bring an end to another epic Tahoe dump. Mother Nature flexing her muscles which are much bigger than our own. We expect that train to get back on the track, the only question is when? Stay Tuned ...