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Showing posts from November, 2017

Strong Ridge of High Pressure to Continue to Dominate our Weather

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High Pressure has moved in off the California coast. That is blocking any storms from coming into our area. It looks like this high pressure ridge is going to camp and stay put for at least the next 10 days and probably longer. I just read a post from the NWS that said they are looking for a couple of scenarios over the weekend to bring snow either in the form of a decent storm or inside slider. Folks, I just checked both the GFS and EC weather models and I see nothing in the way of significant precipitation coming our way. In addition, our expert Meteorologist Paul Huntington has hinted at the possibility of an extended dry period.

One thing we are seeing is cooler weather coming in on Sunday and lasting through the following week. That should allow ski areas to make snow and should bring our first real taste of winter.

Here is a look at the total precip forecast for the next 10 days:


The models had been hinting at a precip event for next weekend, but they have backed off of that now…

Mild Weather Until Saturday, Then Major Change

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Our mild weather will continue through most of Saturday. Then, a strong cold front will move down off the Oregon coast right through the Tahoe area by Sunday. This cold front will bring snow and extreme winds. The snow will affect commutes back from the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The precipitation should get started in the Sierra early Sunday. The heavier stuff comes in around Sunday at noon and should bring moderate precipitation until around Monday at noon. Here is the forecast for Sunday around noon:


Six hours later, around 6:00pm (Sunday) the storm will have increased in intensity and snow levels by then should be down below lake level:


The storm continues to strengthen into early Monday morning:


This storm does have some moisture to work with, here is the precip forecast:


We are forecast 1-2 feet of snow for the Carson Range which will be a very welcome addition as the base has taken a real hit with these mild temperatures.

High pressure moves in behind this storm, late on Monday and …

High Pressure, Mild Temps to Dominate Our Weather for the Next 10 Days

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Our persistent ridge of high pressure is becoming more persistent. It will camp right off the coast of California and push the storm track north of us. There will be slight chance of very light precipitation off and on for the next 10 days, but we see no major storms or precip during that period of time. Here is a look at the current conditions. You can clearly see the storm track moving well north of Tahoe.


As we move into the week, the ridge actually strengthens and moves north, pushing storms even further to the north.


We talked about a dry period coming up, well this is it. The 30 day hinted at very mild weather. That big storm from last week certainly saved the early ski season!

Here is the 30-day forecast which says that the models believe the storms will return. Looking a little closer we could be talking about late in the first week of December:



I just wanted to give a shout out to Taylor at Bobo's for helping me with an equipment problem yesterday. Bobo's prices are v…

Three Large Storms Poised to Slam Tahoe

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This is some crazy weather as the models have been changing as often as most of us change underwear. A very large, wet storm is knocking on the door right now. For now it looks like the snow level is holding around 8,000 feet. We are looking at the possibility of 6 inches or more of liquid precip before this storm moves on. That means that 2-3 feet of very wet (base creating) snow could be sitting on Slide Mountain by noon tomorrow. The possibility does still exist that snow levels rise, but at this point it seems unlikely. In fact, they should start to fall rapidly as this storm has a very cold air mass associated with it.

Here is a look at the forecast for 4:00am tomorrow morning:


That is a pretty impressive moisture tail stretching down to the subtropics. That will fuel this storm and make it a very large storm, especially for pre-Thanksgiving.

The next storm arrives around noon on Monday. Here is the forecast for that time:


Not as impressive a moisture tail, but this storm still h…

Storms Update

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The storm for Wednesday/Thursday has picked up strength and has a very adequate moisture tap. The storm for Saturday is now just a small short wave off the main storm system and will miss us to the south, the storm for next week is looking warm and moist as well.

In a nutshell, the storm machine is beginning to crank. We have a very warm and wet storm with a sub tropical moisture tap set to hit Tahoe head on. That will show up late on Wednesday and not clear out until late Friday. Here is a look at the forecast for very early Thursday morning:



As this storm pulls moisture up from the south, it will also be pulling very warm air up. I was hoping for a cooler system but that is not going to happen. It now looks like this will start as heavy rain up to about 9,000 feet. As the cold front passes through, snow levels will drop rapidly but I fear the bulk of the precip will have already fallen. There is a chance that snow levels could hover around 8,000, but right now this storm is trending…

Wet Week Ahead?

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By Paul Huntington



Here are the totals from the California Nevada River Forecast Center for the mid November series of storms-one more lining up for Sunday night also- i predicted in the Winter outlook post and appears Rose is in the bullseye. It will be interesting if the wet pattern continues into December or we get a break like i was predicting. Nevertheless, I am surprised we are getting an atmospheric river storm this early in a fairly strong La Nina year and will be interesting if it holds together.

cheers to Tahoe resorts opening, Paul H.

Slight Pattern Shift to Wetter, Warmer Storms

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We are seeing a pattern change develop. Up until this point our storms have been born in the north and come through Tahoe with very little moisture to work with. Perhaps you remember last year when the storms came down and tapped into a very active moisture plume and brought record snow to the Sierra and record rains to Northern California and Western Nevada. We are seeing a similar, albeit not as powerful, pattern begin to develop. What does that mean? More snow for the Sierra with warmer and wetter storms.

We are currently tracking 3 more storms in the next 10 days with what looks like more storms stacked up behind them. The first storm should show up in Tahoe on around 2 pm on Monday (10/13):


This storm will be similar to what we have been getting, with little moisture, lots of wind and a cold front behind the leading edge of warm air. Again, we look for this to start at about 7,000 feet and work it's way down. We do not expect a major snow event, but we will take what we can g…

Two More Storms Headed Our Way

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I was not in town for this most recent storm, so I am not sure how it played out, but from what I saw it was somewhat disappointing. Fear not for we have two more storms coming in for Thursday and Friday of next week and then late Sunday (week from today) through Monday. These next two storms look pretty good, have a much more westerner trajectory and should have more moisture to work with. Here is a look at the forecast for Wednesday night as the first storm approaches:


Our weather will stay unstable until the second storm comes in. There is at least some chance (cross your fingers) for a more decent weather event between these two systems. If the first storm stalls just a bit and the second storm slams into it and lingers, then we could have one stormy week starting next Thursday. However, right now it looks like two moderate (at best) weather events separated by a few days.
Here is the forecast for late Sunday (11/12) night when the second storm arrives: 

Pretty amazing how these t…

Small to Medium Storms, Followed by Two Weeks of Dry?

By Paul Huntington

This next storm appears to be a mediocre medium size storm. I'm seeing a dry mid late November along with the Climate Center seeing that trend also and is appearing like a spotty Winter storm wise with strong ridging dominating for majority of it but anything is possible nowadays with our extreme climate. The quiet ITCZ along the equatorial Pacific ocean and negative PNA phase is very supportive of a drier air mass over Central California when the long wave trough shifts east and could be a Winter with a spatial pattern of 4-7 days of rain/snow and then two weeks dry sort of thing and repeating that cycle through its entirety.

Stay Tuned ...