Posts

Showing posts from November, 2015

One Storm For Thursday; Then More Cool Dry Weather

Image
I have searched long and hard to find a reason for optimism as we go into our stormiest part of the year, but I am not seeing anything in the long range weather models that suggest we are in for a big storm until at least Christmas. Of course the disclaimer must be that conditions are very fluid this year and 3-4 week predictions should hold little, if any merit. But here is the 30 day. Remember I published this last year and it was right on, so pardon me for being a little paranoid here:


The EC weather model has the Carson Range forecast for 1 inch of liquid precip between now and Christmas. That includes the storm coming in on Thursday which is supposed to deliver between .5 and 1 inch of precip. That storm has greatly weakened over the last several days. The storm track is heading north of us as our persistent ridge of high pressure is going to park right off the coast and is forecast to stay there for some time.

Here is a look at the EC model for the Pacific starting late next wee…

Cold Storm for Tuesday Afternoon

Image
At around noon Tuesday a cold storm will drop out of the north and begin to have an effect on our weather. By 4:00 the storm will be raging with strong winds, much colder temps and even valley snowfall. This is a fast moving storm that does not have much in the way of a moisture tap and therefore, do not expect much snow. Here is the forecast for 4:00pm on Tuesday:

This storm has a very poor trajectory, unless its cold air you are interested in. It will drop more out of the north than the west, which will limit moisture.
I look for 5-10 inches by Thanksgiving for the Carson range. This is a very cold storm and snow to water ratios could be as high as 20 to 1. There is another shortwave that should follow the main storm on Wednesday, so that will add some minor, additional accumulation.
This is a fairly typical storm for this time of year, however if we look west across the Pacific, there is a lot going on. Super Typhoon Koppu is causing havoc. I will be interested to see what happens …

Quick Storm Update, High Pressure Moving In

Image
Looking at the latest run of the ECMWF weather model the news is not good. The front is moving in and will pass through very quickly. The bulk of the moisture will stay on the western Sierra. I am looking at about .25 - .5 total liquid for the Carson Range. That will equate 3-6 inches of snow max. This front is coming in with some very cool air as well, temperatures will plummet. Any precip in the leeward valleys will be mostly snow. However, I do not see any accumulation.

The bulk of the moisture will come through about 3:00 today and be done by 7:00 tonight. Here is a look at the forecast for around 4:00 today:


Also, our persistent high pressure ridge will move back into place and begin blocking storms as they attempt to move into our area. I am not seeing any significant storms for at least the next 10 days. The problems is our ridge of high pressure coupled with no blocking in the upper plains to Hudson bay. This is allowing storms to move inland and continue tracking due east.


It…

When Will El Nino Begin to Effect Our Weather?

Image
Contrary to popular belief, El Nino has had only a minor role in our most recent storms. These have been relatively small storms that found a moisture tap to the west and south. However, that is not what defines an El Nino influenced event. El Nino will take hold when the southern jet starts to influence our weather. That has yet to happen, so these storms are a real blessing.

I receive a lot of very astute observations from some very smart people. One of the more interesting observations that I have seen came from BigSurHuntington. After looking at the last few strong El Nino years, he believes a pattern emerges. That pattern shows a break in the storm cycle while the southern "El Nino" jet stream moves up to influence our weather. After this break is when the heavy rains start. Because this jet is traditionally much further south, as it moves up, it brings copious amounts of moisture to the entire state of California. We are nowhere near there ... yet.

To show you the patt…

Storm Update

Image
This storm has increased in strength and has tapped into a bit more moisture than I originally expected. It will come in 2 waves, one of which has already made it's appearance. The next wave starts this afternoon and will last into tomorrow. This has a little more potential to push into the Carson Range as well. We could be looking at around a foot of snow for Mt. Rose by storm's end. Here is the latest liquid precip forecast:


This next wave will also usher in some very cold air, which will bring the snow ratio to about 15 to 1, thus we could receive about a foot of snow with 3/4 inch of liquid precip.

This very cold storm is not unusual in El Nino years. I will explain why in my next post that will talk about when El Nino will begin to have a greater influence on our weather.

Stay Tuned ...

Next Storm Will Be Here in 84 Hours, Weak for the Carson Range

Image
That headline says it all. The next storm is due to show up in Tahoe in about 84 hours or 3.5 days. Around Sunday at 4, the storm should arrive. Here is a look at the EC weather forecast for Sunday at 4:00pst:


The models are in nearly complete agreement about this storm. Unfortunately for us on the Carson side of the Sierra, the bulk of this storm will not make it to us, so this will be a fairly minor event. I am thinking at most 6-12 inches for the Carson Range, probably though in the 3-5 inch range. The western crest, north of the Lake Tahoe could be looking at as much as 2 feet. Here is the precip total forecast:


This storm does not have near the moisture plume to work with as the last storm. However, that should keep the snow levels much lower. The last storm stayed at 10,000 feet for the first half of the event or we would have seen much more snow, especially in the Carson range.

Looking a bit further down the line, this is the only event forecast for at least the next 10 days. T…

Storm Update

Image
I think this satellite picture says it all. Our storm has tapped into a moisture plume that stretches nearly to Hawaii (mini-pineapple expresss).


Expect the storm to continue today. Snow levels will drop to the valley floor with little or no accumulation. However, I still expect the Mt. Rose ski area to pick up around 18 inches of base making, Sierra Cement.

Temperatures will rapidly drop throughout today, A cold slider will come in late tomorrow/Wednesday that could produce additional snow for the Carson Range. The long range is forecasting this pattern to continue.

Add El Nino influence starting mid-December and we could be looking at quite a winter in Tahoe. Many of the forecasters continue to warn of dire consequences when the storm machine really gets cranking. Remember, El Nino is warm and if you get a large snow pack to rapidly melt, that water goes down to the population areas. Be prepared.

Stay Tuned ...

As Weather Pattern Changes, a Series of Storms are coming Our Way

Image
I apologize for lateness of this post, however I have been out of town and only returned yesterday. Looking at the latest model runs, I am most pleased by the amount of moisture the current storm appears to be tapping into, especially when it gets here.

Here is a look a the latest run of the EC, for tomorrow:


As this storm approaches, it will pick up moisture from the south. The model runs appear to be leaning toward the possibility of even a larger precipitation event. Also, this storm has plenty of spillover which bodes well for both the Carson Range and the leeward valleys from Reno through Carson.

Here is a look at the current precip forecast, remember the models have been increasing moisture with each run, so our confidence is pretty high with this one:


Not the most impressive storm ever, but certainly much better than what was being forecast 10 days ago.

As far as snow levels, get used to this; this is a warm storm pulling moisture from the south. Snow levels will start around 9…