Showing posts from December, 2013

January Could Bring Much Needed Change to Tahoe

I have been checking the weather models, both short and long term. I am starting to see indications that our weather pattern may finally change. I want to make one thing perfectly clear, this is what the EC weather model is saying for the long term. Until the actual weather happens, nothing is guaranteed. However, it does not hurt any of us to have something to look forward to.

First let's refer back to my last post. It talked about the PNA and AO. I mentioned atmospheric rivers that bring copious amounts of moisture to our area when both the PNA and AO go negative. The PNA has been negative, however the AO has remained positive. That means cold air, an essential ingredient for large storms, has been trapped in the Arctic by the northern jet.

The latest AO forecast has the index moving neutral and then negative. This could bring a very much needed change to our weather. 2013 was the driest year ever for our region. The funny thing about the climate is that averages rarely if ever …

Driest Year Ever?

San Francisco and most other cities in California will remember 2013 as the driest year ever. Take a look at the following chart:

This shows the total rainfall to date and the percentage of normal. San Francisco is among the driest of the dry cities in California. Reno, Carson City and all of Tahoe are experiencing similar numbers. What looked like a decent December a few weeks back has turned dry, like the rest of 2013. Remember the snowy December of 2012. As soon as the year changed, so did the weather. And it hasn't changed back since!

We continue to have a ridge of high pressure pushing storms east and north. That trajectory is never good for a major precip event. All of the models and now forecasters are pretty convinced that this pattern will remain in place through the end of 2013. I am starting to hop on that band wagon.

However, there is hope. Our biggest, wettest storms have traditionally taken place when a certain condition is present. That condition is a combination of…

Things Not Looking Good in Near or Long Term

Here is the bad news, this chart is the EC forecast for total precipitation between now and January 13th:

The EC weather model is forecasting around a 1/4 inch of liquid precip during our snowiest time of the year.

Now the good news; The EC weather model is forecasting around a 1/4 inch of liquid precip during our snowiest time of the year. Yes, that is correct! This weather model along with the other other weather models have been consistently wrong the entire year. When EC has predicted something, long term, the exact opposite has occurred since last January. The exact opposite of no snow is lots of snow.

I will keep an eye out and continue reporting to my faithful readers. In the meantime, do not lose hope, not all is lost ... our snow will come, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Stay Tuned ...

Four Inches for Carson Range, Next Shot Comes in Saturday

The well advertised inside slider brought in some very cold air out of Canada and about 4 inches of snow on the eastern front range. That was a pretty productive slider that produced more precip than I had thought possible.

The next chance for snow comes in on Saturday. The models are in agreement that a wave will come from the northwest through our area and produce more snow. Here is a look at that storm on late Saturday morning:

This is not a very large storm, but every bit helps. The following chart shows the expected total precip for Saturday and Sunday:

Right now it looks like around an inch, more west of the lake, less east of the lake. Based on our cold temps I expect this to be all snow for all of Tahoe. The snow to liquid ratio should be high so I am expecting between 8-16 inches of snow ... possibly slightly more. That should be enough for the fine folks at rose to get NW cranked up and start the season.

I am tracking a slightly larger storm for next week around Wednesday or…