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Showing posts from February, 2012

Quick Update - Storm Strengthens Considerably

This is just a quick update to my post earlier this morning. The storm has actually strengthened and will hit the Tahoe area with a bulls eye. It will then move slightly south and stall. That means snow and lots of it for the entire Tahoe area. We are now talking about 3-5 feet for the Sierra Crest and 2-4 feet for the Carson range by mid-day Thursday. At lake level they will receive more than a foot of snow. The Reno and Carson Valleys will mostly be blocked out, but should pick up 1-3 inches tomorrow morning around 6am lasting until about 10am. The foothills could pick up another 3-5 inches. The big news on this storm is the prolific moisture. Similar to what happened on Monday, these last two storms are picking up copious amounts of moisture. They are rising above the High Sierra, condensing quickly and dumping. After midnight the Sierra could well see snow amounts in excess of 3-4 inches an hour for about 12-18 hour period. Again this will be all snow at all Lake Tahoe elevations …

Heavy Snow Starts Late Tonight and Lasts Through Wednesday

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Short Term
The Sierra is in the cross hairs of another larger storm that will start to make its presence felt later this afternoon and last through the day tomorrow with lingering snow lasting through Thursday. This storm is larger and has a much better moisture tap than yesterday's. Here is what we are looking at very early tomorrow morning (2/29):

This storm will have a more profound affect over the Western Sierra than the Carson range. However I still expect a heavy dose of snow for the Carson Range. Right now we are looking at 2-3 feet for the Sierra Crest west of Lake Tahoe with 1-2 feet for Slide Mountain and the Carson Range. This should be all snow from the lake level on up. Incidentally, we are looking at 6-12 inches around the lake.

Mid Term
We are still looking at the potential for another storm next week, the question remains when? The models are not in sync on this one but the consensus is some time around mid-week expect another storm similar to the two that we have ha…

Winds Dying as Conditions Turn More Favorable for Snow This Week

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The winds are dying and the mountains should open up completely this morning as this strong cold front has passed through the area. The NWS is cancelling all wind warning by early this afternoon.

Conditions are turning much more favorable for a series of small storms to hit the Tahoe area starting Sunday night with a better storm coming on Wednesday and Thursday. Then early the following week, the storm door appears to be opening a bit wider as another larger storm is headed our way. Here is the EC look at the storm slated for March 5th:


Here is a look at precip through the 5th. Amounts are slightly understated because the aforementioned big storm will be just beginning to hit our area:


I am thinking about 1-2 inches of liquid precip by the 7th of March which of course should make conditions better. Despite the lack of snow this year, conditions at Mt. Rose are quite good. We just have not had the pow that we have become accustomed to in years past.

I am still looking for even more fa…

Quick Update - Going To Turn Cool and Stay Cool

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Current Through Next Week
A series of systems are headed our way. Unfortunately they are not packing enough moisture to bring us any significant precipitation. They are packing cold air and wind. They will continue to re-enforce through next week which will bring us our worst week of weather this entire winter ... I define bad weather as being cold, windy and no precip.

Strong Winds Forecast For Friday Night
The pressure gradient is just right for this next system, which comes through tomorrow night to whip up some serious winds, as much as 120 mph for the Crest. Do not be surprised if the foothills and other wind prone areas of the valley see gusts in excess of 100mph, so get your basketball hoops and other yard items under cover or they could end up getting blown in the valley.

Long Range
MJO has stalled, but not all is lost. There are a series of events that lead the TWB to believe that we are still in for a wet March, but probably not starting until the 2nd week. Again we are keepin…

Small Blasts For The Weekend, The Real Fun Starts Toward End of Month

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Short Term
In my last post I predicted between 2-5 feet of snow for the Sierra through the end of this week. Some of the energy of the series of storms, that has been ushered in by favorable conditions, has moved slightly south. Mammoth has picked up 2 feet of snow, while Squaw Valley is around 19 inches since my last post. However, we are not done yet. A series of short waves are due to show up on our door step starting Friday night and lasting through the weekend. These are weak short waves however this will bump up our snow total. The picture below forecasts the precip for the weekend, around 3/4 - 1 inch of liquid, with the cold air could translate into another foot of snow:



I was really hoping for slightly more moisture, but these storms are just not big enough and lack the cold arctic air to pick up that moisture from the pacific. Thus the Sierra will be probably around 30 inches for the entire event while the Carson range will be around 18-24 inches. We will take it. Incidental…

Storms Start Again Tomorrow

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Short Term through Next Week
A nice healthy shot of moisture is coming to the Sierra with good spillover for the leeward valleys expected as well. We have a series of storms that should culminate with 2-4 inches of liquid precipitation. The storms start tomorrow with a weakening system that is currently just off the Oregon coast. After a day of rest on Sunday, a much more potent storm comes in for Monday and Tuesday. From there a series of storms should follow suit which could bring 2-5 feet of fresh snow to the Sierra and anywhere from 1- 2 inches of liquid precip to parts of the leeward valleys. Here is a look at precip potential through next week:


We have a very favorable setup for a week of storms with a ridge of high pressure blocking west of Hudson Bay. Our ridge has moved south and west, and that opens up the storm corridor. The only thing I would like to see is a larger moisture tap. That could come, however. If it does, it will bring warmer air into the mix and snow levels wi…