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Showing posts from December, 2009

Tomorrow's Storm Weakening

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The further north you live the more precip you will get. This storm is shifting to the north and as it comes inland it will weaken significantly (see last post). Right now we are looking at about .5 to .75 inches of liquid precip for the high sierra. That translates into perhaps 6-12 inches of snow. Cut that in half for the Carson Range (Mt. Rose). The heaviest snow will fall after 4:00, so if you get up early on Saturday the should be some nice lines. Here is a closer look. That little area in NW California is what remains of our storm. It will move inland, weaken further and just graze us:


Looking ahead, a ridge of high pressure moves in Saturday. This will cause more strong inversions in the valley but should make for some pretty nice days on the mountain. The models are showing a possible change in our pattern starting on or near January 7th. That change could be significant as the models have that lasting at least a week. This change is not showing up on NOA's PNA so I am cau…

Small Systems will Continue to Roll Through - Possible Larger System Friday

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Scott and I went up to Rose this morning and caught around 6-8 inches of fresh, light powder from last nights weak trough. We will take all we can get. We should be looking at another 6-8 inches tonight and then the possibility for a little larger storm on Friday. Here is a look at Friday's forecast:


For Friday the potential does exist for some very heavy snow. As the front approaches the coast, I anticipate that it will weaken significantly. Still it should still have plenty of punch remaining. I will try and fine tune the forecast in the next day or so.



Similar to last nights system, the storm is actually located quite a bit north and is swinging bands of precip into our area as the cold air mixes with the warm moist air.

Tonight's system will be accompanied by high winds over the crest as well as ideal down slope wind conditions for the foothills. At least some of the inversion that the valley is currently suffering through should get wiped out by these winds. Ironically, the …

No Significant Storms on Horizon

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The precip spigot continues to be turned off. We have a number of very weak systems that will blow through the area in the next couple of weeks. NOAA has the PNA neutral for this period of time. We will have short energy bursts that will come through and leave 3-6 inches of snow. There should be one tomorrow (Tuesday) and another Thursday and still another on Sunday. That should do a decent job of keeping the rocks covered, but hardly the epic pow days that I was expecting. Here is what to expect on Sunday:



As you can see there is a small system just to our north that will move some precip into our area. Here is a look at the PNA forecast:


Remember, negative PNA can be a tell tale sign for a stormy pattern for our area. As you can see, NOAA has the PNA going from neutral to positive. If you want a look at the storms that have hit our area, just follow the PNA chart and look for negative periods.

A look from outer space tells the story. Very weak systems moving through our area with the r…

Deep Inversion Coming, El Nino Stregthens

Expect deep temperature inversions through at least Saturday. Then a very weak system will split and the northern half will hit our area. The models are mixed on how much precipitation is coming our way. I will try and fine tune.

For next week the models are up in the air about another disturbance coming our way on Wednesday the 30th of December.

There are some indications that the first week of January could restart the storm train. That is quite a ways out for now.

El Nino is strengthening and should start to have a profound affect on our weather in January, we will see.

The blog has a new home. It can be found at http://www.tahoeweatherblog.com. It can be streamed through a variety of mechanisms and I will talk about them in the weeks to come. I will also include the address for the email lists.