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Showing posts from January, 2016

Storm Update, Dry Out Next Week?

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Get Ready, here it comes. A strong storm will move out of the Western Pacific Ocean and make landfall. This storm will produce very heavy winds. For more details, see my last post. Snow totals I believe are right inline despite the models moving this storm a bit quicker (18-36 inches for Carson Range, 36-60 inches for crest). The NWS has moved their precip totals up, perhaps they read my last post (just kidding). Look for the event to be very intense from late tomorrow morning through Saturday evening.

I do not see the lifts at Mt. Rose being open tomorrow as 100mph winds are expected to accompany this storm. I believe once the leading edge has moved through, that the winds will decrease slightly. Hopefully enough to open the Slide Side on Saturday. Disclaimer, winds can be very tricky to predict especially with a storm that has this much moisture. Moisture can lead to rain friction and decrease winds substantially.

Looking ahead, our persistent ridge of high pressure, which never lea…

It's Going to Snow All Weekend

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The strong storm that we have been talking about for the last few weeks is coming and it is going to stay for quite a while, in fact it is going to stay for the weekend. Fortunately, this should be all snow at 8,000 feet and above. This storm is accompanied by a significant cold front that will lower snow levels to 4,500 feet. Inland blocking high pressure is going to slow the progress of this storm significantly. Right now the NWS is looking at about 2 feet at the crest above 8,000 feet. I believe the totals will be much higher. This storm has an excellent moisture tap and should produce heavy snow for an 18 hour window starting early Saturday morning. Here is the forecast for around 2am on Saturday as the storm begins to enter the Carson Range:
I am seeing adequate spillover as this storm starts south, moves north and slams the inland high pressure. This will cause it to do an about face and track south right through our area. I am looking at 18-36 inches of snow for the Carson Rang…

Storm Update

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Another storm is knocking on the door. This storm has a very adequate moisture tap but nothing inland to slow its progress. Therefore it will move in and out relatively quick. Look for 1-2 feet of fresh snow in the Carson Range. Along the Sierra Crest, west of Lake Tahoe, look for 2-3 feet. Most of this snow will fall late this afternoon through the early morning hours of tomorrow. Very strong winds are accompanying this storm. I believe the Summit lifts at Rose will remain closed through the day today, but should be open tomorrow morning.

The storm that everybody is watching is moving toward us as we speak. This storm will tap into tropical moisture, gain in strength and bring lots of precip. The only question is where? Right now we are at the southern tip of the storm. Some El Nino, bringing most of the precip north of Tahoe and north of California. Most El Nino's are very dry for the Pacific NW, not this one, at least not yet. We are still waiting for the much needed rains to b…

As El Nino Taps into MJO, Expect stronger Warmer Storms

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The storm train continues, here is a look at the current conditions in the Pacific Ocean:


Much of this moisture is due to a very active MJO in the Western Pacific. El Nino is tapping into the MJO and sending storm after storm our way.

El Nino + Strong MJO = Dangerous Combination
We expect these storms to increase in size and intensity. Also, perhaps starting next week, we will start to see warmer storms with rising snow levels. We have been warning about this for months now. As the Pineapple Express taps into the unusually active MJO, we could see snow levels rise into the 8,000-9,000 foot range with extremely moist storms. As the snow pack in the upper elevations continues to increase, we will have to keep a very close eye on this. Folks, all that water has to go somewhere and down is the only way. Be aware that the risk is very real over the next 2-3 weeks, at least. If snow levels stay under 8,000, flooding will be minor. At 9,000, streams and rivers will overflow their banks causin…

No End in Sight For Storm Train; Warmer, Wetter Storms Come in next Week

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Everybody said we were crazy with our 18-36 storm total for the Carson Range; but we were pretty darn close as it turns out. That was a great 1-2 punch and the snow is starting to pile up.

There is no end in sight for the storm train as we are tracking storms for early tomorrow, Sunday-Tuesday, and late next Friday. The later two storms are showing much more liquid precip. However, these will be warmer storms and snow levels will rise to around Lake Level. Because of the amount of warm moisture these storms are bringing in, I would not be surprised if snow levels started in the 7,000 foot range. But, let's no get ahead of ourselves.

We already have another storm knocking on our door and it will arrive in Tahoe very late tonight through tomorrow. Here is a look at the forecast for around noon tomorrow. This is a weaker storm but is cutting a nice path for the storm on Sunday:


I expect the lifts at Mt. Rose to stay open tomorrow. However, this storm will bring only around 3-6 inches…

Storm Train is Barreling Down the Tracks

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Starting on Wednesday, we should see much more precip as El Nino begins to strengthen his grip. For Wednesday and Thursday we are looking at a decent snow event for both the Sierra and Carson Range (18-36 inches). Here is a look at the forecast for Wednesday afternoon:


Following this system are a couple of weak short waves that will keep it cloudy and snowy in the mountains until the next system on Saturday morning:


This system also has some potential for another 1-2 feet. Again, another series of weaker short waves will keep things snowy in the mountains and then the next system will arrive a week from tomorrow:


There is a number of other systems that just keep lining up so I expect this pattern to continue.

Over the next 8 days here is what we can expect in the way of liquid precip:


Southern California is getting the short end of the stick with this pattern, but Southern California is a desert, no different than Reno and Carson City. However, we can look for anywhere from 4-10 inche…

Expect More of the Same

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A series of storms are lined up and heading our way. These are fairly weak storms and none of them has the potential to dump 5 feet. However, they just keep coming and it adds up in a pretty big hurry. I am tracking storms for Saturday (late morning), Tuesday (Early Morning) and the biggest of the bunch early next Wednesday morning. Here is a look at the storm track:


This appears as though the storms will be cutting north, and not delivering their payload to Southern California. Tahoe is highlighted in red. I hope this storm track changes, and our researchers believe it will, just not in the next week. I guess we will just have to live with all the snow coming our way!

Here is a look at the storm on tap for next Wednesday:


This storm train will make it seem like it is snowing in the mountains constantly. And, quite frankly, it is snowing in the mountains constantly. Head over to Unofficial Mt. Rose to see how awesome the conditions have been.

Finally here is the outlook for the next w…

Storms Update

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A series of storms are coming. We believe we will see significant precipitation over the next 3 weeks and beyond. We are looking at the possibility of as much as 8-15 feet of snow for the Sierra Crest around Lake Tahoe by months end. Or we could see more! These storms should easily push through and leave similar totals in the Carson Range.

The short-term, good news is that until about mid January these will continue to be cold storms. Snow levels will be in the 5,000-6,000 foot range, great for all Tahoe Ski Areas. In addition, the largest of the storms for the next week, Tomorrow's storm, will not bring in the 100 mph winds. I believe that the lifts will continue to spin at Mt. Rose through the storm. Qualifier: Exact wind conditions are very difficult to predict, so cross your fingers if you are planning on going up tomorrow.

Around the 15th, our researchers are seeing a change in the pattern to a much wetter, warmer pattern with the Pineapple Express coming into play. The big c…

El Nino Begins To Influence Our Weather

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Our weather will begin to come in from the west and south and with it will come tropical moisture as El Nino begins to dominate the pattern. In fact, starting late Monday and lasting into the foreseeable future, it is going to rain in the lower elevations and snow in the upper elevations. Here is a look at the Pacific:



If you look at my previous post, this is a complete turnaround. In fact, our persistent ridge of high pressure is not even in the picture. We have not seen a pattern like this in many years and it is a very welcome pattern for Southern California as the westerlies will bring much needed rain.
This El Nino is setting up to be historic insofar as moisture. Already areas around the Indian Ocean and western Pacific have seen historic rainfall (and flooding) and at least one of my researchers believes this is coming to California.
Before I show you the 10 day precip forecast from the GFS weather model, let me say this; almost all of the forecasters and forecast models have u…