Showing posts from January, 2023

Cold Slider on Sunday, Warm and Dry Before and After

We have a cold slider system coming in for Sunday. This system will usher in some arctic air and bring low temperatures near zero in the Sierra and low teens for the valleys.  This will NOT be a big snow maker system. In fact the ECMWF weather model is predicting almost no snow for the Sierra. The above forecast is the GFS weather model.  It will be warm up until Sunday, finally! Then it will take a few days to recover but we may start to see some average temperatures for this time year later in the week. We see no other systems in sight, but we all know that can change. Stay Tuned ...

One More Storm, Then Drying Out Period Begins

We have one weak storm left in what has been an amazing storm cycle, even by Tahoe standards. This cycle lasted over 3 weeks and produced close to 20 feet of snow for Mt. Rose. Oops, I am not supposed to forecast what has already happened, but I could not resist.  Late tomorrow night our last storm in this cycle will arrive. Notice the blocking ridge of high pressure to the west. That will cut off any significant moisture tap.  We are looking at 4-8 inches for Slide Mountain and a few flurries for the valley. This is a cold storm and will bring with it some very cold air. That cold air will stick with us until the end of the month when it looks like our next storm cycle will begin: This is still a few weeks out so our confidence is pretty low. But the models do have that west coast ridge of high pressure getting shoved much further west. If you are a regular reader of this blog, you know that means the storm door opens. Stay Tuned ...

When Will The Storm Train End?

In about a week (1/17), the metaphorical caboose will pass by the station and high pressure will setup off the California coast which will push the storms north. Between now and then, we still have a series of storms that will wreak even more havoc in California. Having said all that, the reservoirs should be filled and all the gloomy predictions of the world coming to a quick end because you drive a mini-van, will go away for another year or so.  The largest of the remaining storms is poised to slam the Tahoe Area late Friday (1/13 - Yes, Friday the 13th) or early Saturday. That will be followed by another storm and last through most of Monday (1/16). That will bring an end to another epic Tahoe dump. Mother Nature flexing her muscles which are much bigger than our own. We expect that train to get back on the track, the only question is when? Stay Tuned ...

Snowmageddon For Upper Elevations of Sierra, Flooding for the Rest

We have not seen precipitation forecasts like this one since 2017. We talked about that transition from La Nina to neutral and felt as though our weather could be effected back in October. Here is what is forecast for the next 2 weeks in the way of precipitation: Yes, many parts of the Western Sierra Crest are forecast to receive 25+ inches of liquid in the next 2 weeks. In the upper elevations, that translates into 20-30 feet of snow. The leeward valleys are looking at nearly 7 inches of rain in the next 2 weeks. While Mt. Rose should receive 10-12 feet of snow. These are mostly warm storms that will start out at very high elevations and come down as the the front passes and pulls in the cooler air. We believe this will be mostly snow for Mt. Rose, but other Tahoe resorts could be looking at major flooding. In addition, all that rain will melt snow and that water will go downhill which will definitely challenge the drainage systems around Reno, Carson City and other valley locations. 

Next Storm on tap for Wednesday

  Another large, wet and warm storm is on tap starting Wednesday. This storm will be reenforced by smaller waves and will last, on and off, for nearly a week. The above graphic shows when the storm really gets cranking, Wednesday (1/4) evening. This storm will come in very warm, but snow levels will drop rapidly as a cold front comes through. Then, for the next several days, until the 9th of January, we will see all snow for all Tahoe resorts. However, by then most of the heavy moisture will have come through.  Mt. Rose will again have the best conditions with its high base as this storm will challenge the base of Rose and will probably deliver at least some rain. Although most of the precip will fall in the way of snow. Here is the forecast for January 10th: This is another storm with a subtropical moisture tap, or as the NWS likes to say, AR (Atmospheric River). However this storm will start out much cooler and will deliver all snow to Slide Mountain. Some Tahoe resorts, with low bas