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Showing posts from 2021

Thinking Spring? Think Again!

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 Today (March 4th) will be our last glimpse of spring for quite some time as we enter a very active weather pattern starting tomorrow and lasting at least the next 2 weeks. Although we do not see any giant Sierra storms, we see at least a half dozen smaller storms that will bring in much cooler air and some snow. Here is the synopsis:  Early Saturday Morning (March 6th) - This is a weaker storm but will bring 6 inches or so to Mt. Rose by Saturday Afternoon. It will also bring much cooler air. Late Monday (March 8th)  - This is a little stronger storm that will bring in several waves of snow and cold air. It should produce an additional foot of snow. The next chart is the same storm as it approaches Tahoe. Early Wednesday (March 10th) After this storm moves through we will still have several waves of light precip and cold air. Late Saturday (March 13th) The precip comes back, albeit on the light side. March 17th - We could be looking at a moderate St. Patrick's day storm.  Here is

High Pressure in Complete Control; March to Come in Like a Lion

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  A picture is worth a thousand words, high pressure is in complete control of our weather. This will continue into the first week of March.  That first week of March should usher in a pattern change as we are tracking several storms for late in the first week of March, including this one which is forecast for the 5th of March: We will keep an eye on this developing pattern change and report accordingly. Stay Tuned ...

Two More Storms in the Next Week

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Our weather pattern remains active but we are not seeing any big storms in the near future. We are tracking two fast moving, weak storms that are on tap for Monday and Thursday of next week. Combined, these storm may produce 6-12 inches of snow for Mt. Rose. They will be on the colder side and temperatures will remain around average and at times below average over the next several days. Here is the forecast for Monday at 10:00am: This storm will probably be mostly shadowed out for the Carson Range but we could see a few inches of snow for Mt. Rose on Monday morning. Then later in the week, around Thursday a better storm comes in. Currently this storm is forecast to rapidly move through our area. We believe it could leave 6 inches on the Tahoe slopes. Not much more to talk about as these short waves continue to come into the area keeping our pattern very active, however conditions are not yet ripe for a big one. Stay Tuned ...

Active, Snowy Weather Pattern Starts Thursday

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 We are tracking 4 storms starting late next Thursday, February 11th. Between now and then, expect above average temperatures. Then everything changes. The weather models are mostly in agreement about this next storm series so despite it still being 5+ days out, we are very confident. Here is a look at the forecast for Thursday @ 10pm: Notice the complete lack of our persistent high pressure ridge. Next storm comes in late Saturday, February 13th. This one has some tremendous potential: Next storm comes in the following Monday (February 15th), about midday. Notice the moisture tail showing a true Pineapple Express event: The next storm is forecast to come in very late on the 17th of February: This next storm series should produce near consistent snowfall for over a week. Right now snow elevations look to be above 6,000 feet, but as we near these storms we will get a better idea. My gut tells me they will be higher with the sub-tropical moisture that all these storms are tapping into. W

Small Storm Tuesday; High Pressure to Dominate For Next 7-10 Days

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 We have a small system coming through on Tuesday. That will be the last storm in the current storm cycle. After Tuesday look for above average temperatures for at least the next 7-10 days. Here is a look at the forecast for Tuesday around 10:00am: Notice the massive ridge of high pressure out in the Pacific. That ridge will begin to dominate our weather for at least a week and probably more. This last storm will bring 4-8 inches to the Carson Range and other Tahoe resorts. Stay Tuned ...

Storm Winds Down Friday Morning, Next Storm Late Monday, Then Dry and Warm

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 Ma Nature is showing off! Our current massive storm has shifted north again and should add a least a couple more feet of snow to the Carson Range, which has already seen over 4 feet. The next storm comes in late on Monday and is taking dead aim at Tahoe: I would expect that we will pick up another 12-24 inches from this next storm. That should bring the total amount of snow for the week to around 100 inches for Mt. Rose. That should open all remaining terrain. However, this storm cycle is over after Tuesday. High Pressure will dominate our weather and bring much warmer than average temps to the area. Notice the warm air, in this next chart, extending all the way into BC: This is the forecast from the GFS weather model, the EC model is saying we will NOT get that warm. The next storm cycle looks to start around the 13th of February. Stay Tuned ...

2 Storms then High Pressure Takes Over

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 This is a very typical La Nina pattern. La Nina can spin up some large storms but there are usually far fewer storms in a La Nina year. We have two storms that the models have consolidated on. They are backing off historic snowfall amounts. From Kirkwood to Mammoth will see the most snow. In Tahoe, we will get our fair share, but not what we were predicting even a few days ago. The first storm is just making landfall in Northern California now. This is the larger of the two storms. It will begin to affect our area about 10:00 tonight, Tuesday January 26th. It will have two peaks, tomorrow at around 4:00am: Then the next peak will be Thursday around 10:00am: The second storm we are tracking, and for now what appears to be the final storm in this series, will arrive on Monday morning and last for about 12 hours as it weakens: Combined these two storms will produce in neighborhood of 4-8 feet, with the Carson range getting around 4 feet as we are seeing some shadowing occurring. You can

Tahoe to get Slammed With Epic Snowfall; Heavy Snow Expected For the next 2 Weeks or More

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Before we get into the weather forecast, please visit  Unofficial Mt Rose , it could save your life. If you are thinking about heading into the back country, please read Sven's post as dangerous Avalanche conditions are setting up.  If you have been reading our posts, then you are well aware that the models converged on an epic snowfall for the Tahoe area. We are tracking large storms as far out as 2 weeks. Here is the latest precip forecast for the next 2 weeks: All resorts in Tahoe should receive between 8-15 feet of snow depending on elevation and location. The chart above is calling for the Carson Range to pick up around a foot of liquid precip. With these storms being a bit on the colder side, we believe in the next 2 weeks Mt. Rose could see as much as 12 feet of snow. With the snowpack down below 50% this will be a great help. In addition, at the present time, we are seeing the storm door remaining wide open. Here is the forecast for February 9th, notice the ridge of high pr

The Year's First Major Storm Cycle is Knocking at the Door

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Could we finally be about to start a storm cycle that will bring more typical Sierra storms to the area? Well, if you believe the models, YES! Storm 1 (Friday 1/22 - 1/23) This is a very light storm that could attempt to overachieve. It will send several weak waves of precip into the area and produce by days end Saturday 1-3 inches of snow. Better than nothing. More importantly, it will nudge the ridge of high pressure further west which will open the storm door for bigger storms. Storm 2 (All day Monday 1/25) This is a better storm but still not what we are looking for. However, we see 6-12 inches for the Carson range. Storm 3 (Wednesday 1/27 - Friday Morning) This is a storm with some potential, it is still 6 days out but the weather models are consolidating on our first major weather event, complete with a subtropical moisture tap (18-36 inches) Storm 4 (Sunday January 31st - Tuesday February 2nd) This one is a beauty. It has all the makings of a major winter storm. It is a tad warm

When Will it Snow Again?

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 High Pressure is in complete control making for very mild days. Unfortunately, in a year that has seen much below average precipitation, that means what little snow we do have is melting. Here is a view of our current conditions: You can clearly see the warm air has moved almost to the Washington State border. That begs the question; When will it snow in Tahoe again? We will see a small system come through on the 22nd and bring much needed cold air with it. The effect this system will have on our weather will be seen, however, in the days following the 22nd. It is going to nudge our ridge of high pressure west just enough to allow the storms to start dropping out of the north and bring in a very welcome change to our weather pattern. The first decent storm in the series will be around the 25th of January: Notice the ridge of high pressure has moved well west, opening the storm door. Here is the forecast for late on the 26th of January: We believe there could be several more storms in

As High Pressure Builds In, Expect Dry Conditions with Above Average Temperatures

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  This chart says it all. There are plenty of storms that are tapping into copious amounts of sub-tropical moisture. However a very strong ridge in the Jet Stream is pushing those storms well north of Tahoe into British Columbia. The models are predicting a pattern change to much drier weather with above average temperatures into the foreseeable future. The only good news in this scenario; the models have been struggling all year forecasting our weather more than 3 days out. We expect this to change, when it does we will report accordingly.  For now enjoy the beautiful weather, 60's in the valley are coming, so get that golf game going again and enjoy some great turns at all Tahoe resorts. Stay Tuned ... 

Three Storms; Then Dry

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 We have been talking about this storm for weeks. It will begin to effect our weather starting very late tonight and lasting through most of tomorrow. We expect snow elevations to be right at 6,500 feet for the majority of the storm, when the cold front comes through, the temps will drop along with the snow levels, but most of the precip will be long gone.  We expect 8-16 inches of wet snow for the Carson Range above 7,000 feet. The peak of the storm should bring major winds that will shut down lift operations. If the lifts run at all tomorrow, it will be first thing, but that is doubtful at this time. Here is a look at the peak of the storm in the early afternoon tomorrow (1/4/2021): This storm is fast moving or we would expect much more snow. Notice the ridge of high pressure well to the south. As this storm passes through, that ridge will begin to build again. There are several other storms that we are tracking that will continue to bring varying amount of snow to Tahoe. Most of the

Several Storms Take Aim at Tahoe; Models back off Major Weather Event

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 Happy New Year! We are tracking several storms the first is poised to hit Monday: All models have consolidated and we think this could bring 8-12 inches to the Carson Range. In  a year when the models are constantly refactoring the weather pattern, it is hard to be sure about anything else. The pattern will remain active, a chance does exist for a major snow event, but right  now the models have the storms being pushed just slightly north. The next storm will show up on the 6th of January. This storm will approach the West Coast and then split. Where that split occurs is going to determine how much precip we get. Right now it could be between 2-12 inches, we are confident that this will not be a major producer. High pressure is well to our south. That is forecast to move north and push the storms into Oregon and Washington. So to sum it all up; we remain in a very active weather pattern. This pattern will continue for at least the next several weeks. Tahoe will see a fair amount of sn