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Showing posts from February, 2015

Models Temper Down Storms

We have a fast moving storm approaching for Friday. However, that storm will make land up in Oregon and come down with a really crappy trajectory ... if you want snow that is. With it, more cool air is on the way. The pattern will probably hold for another week or so before another chance at storms comes in.

Sorry folks, but that is all I have. The 30 day is still showing some promise, but these storms appear to be fizzling out again. I am hoping for a major change in a couple of weeks or so, but have nothing I am willing to show.

About the only good news I have, is that we will stay on the cool side for the next 7-10 days starting on Friday as we get into that north flow. Good news if you are trying to manage a hockey pond!

I am leaving town for a few days, hopefully something will start to spin up around the time I get back. If so, I will let you know.

Stay Tuned ...

Return to Stormy Weather By Months End

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The models all appear to be aligning for a stormy end of February and a stormy beginning of March. The latest to hop on the bandwagon is the European model.

Our ridge of high pressure is still firmly in place. However, an even larger ridge of high pressure will setup over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes and act as a pretty good blocking force. This will send Pacific storms down the coast and into our area and even further south.

Here is a look at what we can expect around around the 27th of February


As the a High Pressure ridge sets up in the North Central US, storms will be forced down the coast. With any luck, this pattern will hold well into March, however it is too early to say.
The models are hinting at a pretty good storm on the last day of February. Here is a look at the EC weather model for the 28th:

Currently, the GFS model has the initial wave being weaker, but follows this storm with several larger storms. Here is a look at March 2nd:

GFS has a complete pattern change start…

Pattern Change by Months End?

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I understand that I am beating the proverbial dead horse, but we are due for something big. Over the last 3+ years we have seen below average, and in most cases, way below average precip here in Tahoe. It is even worse south of here. Averages exist for a reason, the world does not change overnight so I still fully expect a major pattern change to usher in a very wet spring.

Having said that, I can base this on no scientific data, historical data, weather trends, oscillations or anything else, at least not consistently. By no means am I complaining about the near perfect weather that we have seen around Tahoe for quite some time. But, enough is enough, we live in the snow belt and it is about time we got some snow.

The GFS weather model, for the past couple of days has been hinting about a pattern change. That change could come as early as the 26th or as late as the first of March. Interestingly enough, today the EC weather model joined the party. The GFS is more aggressive, but EC sho…

Next Storm Up

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What a pleasant surprise when TWB forecasted the most precipitation and this time we were wrong on the low end. If you read last column, we were looking for 18-24 inches in the Carson range above 8,000. The NWS called for snow levels to be as high as 10,000 and a large rain shadow effect to be in place.

Sub-tropical moisture will be the deciding component for this next storm. This storm is currently just off the coast of Northern California. It will move almost due north staying off the coast. It's outer rings, however, will tap into another sub-tropical moisture plume and bring that moisture up and through the Tahoe area. I expect snow levels to start at about 7,500 feet. By the time it is all said and done, those levels will drop to around 5,500-6,000 feet.

Here is a look at the forecast for around 10:00pm tonight:


I believe the Carson range and Mt. Rose will pick up another 14-30 inches of snow from this one. I see a better trajectory and a strengthening storm.

Forecast remains…

Our Turn

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Averages are averages and finally, for the next week, starting tomorrow .... its our turn!

A massive storm is poised to make land in central BC and the southern rings will pull moisture from the south in the form of atmospheric river and slam Northern California, including the Tahoe area .... finally!

Much needed precipitation is coming in and should start for the Northern Crest tomorrow afternoon.


This is a big storm, but the better news is the series of storms pictured above is going to cut south and slam us, head on, with another storm starting around late Sunday. The following is the forecast for around 5:00pm Sunday:



Here is the precip totals for the two storms combined:


While this is all good news for farmers and drought mongers alike, snow levels will be very high. We will also have a pretty strong rain shadow effect along the Sierra crest that will limit snowfall (somewhat) in the Carson range. Those snow levels are forecast to be around 8,000 feet for most of this event. The …