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Showing posts from March, 2014

Next Storm Should Hit Late Tonight

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The 3rd storm in the last week is approaching as I write this and should hit late tonight. This will not be as big as the storm we saw on Saturday and very early Sunday, but will leave more preicip especially west of the crest and south of Lake Tahoe. Here is a look at the forecast for late tonight:



This storm is also going to slide down the crest. Like the last storm, the Carson range could get shadowed out. Amazing the difference in precip between the crest of the Sierra and the Carson range. Sugar Bowl reported 5 feet of snow, while Mt. Rose got around a foot. I drove over the Donner Summit yesterday and it was pretty amazing the amount of snow they picked up in 36 hours. By the time we got to Truckee there was just a minor amount. When forecasting the weather, it is really hard to predict the rain shadow anomaly. Suffice it to say, very beneficial rains fell west of the crest in both the northern and central Sierra. I would expect more of the same with this storm to a lesser degre…

Tahoe In Bulls Eye For Next Two Storms; El Nino on the Horizon

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Not a lot has changed with our forecast from earlier in the week. The first of the three storms we forecast came through and brought winter back to the region. It also left behind some much needed moisture. As we said, this was the weakest of the storms. The next two storms are going to pack much more moisture.

The next storm begins to make its presence felt for the Sierra early Saturday Morning. This storm will develop and pick up moisture from the Pacific. This storm will hang around for about 36-48 hours and should dump 2-4 feet of snow on the Western Crest and about half that in the Carson Range by Sunday night. Here is a look at Saturday night's forecast:


Right behind this system is the next system which makes its approach around noon on Monday. Here is a look at the forecast for Monday around noon, I expect similar precip numbers from the Saturday/Sunday storm:


Here is a look at total liquid precip for the next 6 or so days:

As I look out to next week, another system may com…

Stormy Week Starts Late Tuesday

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A series of storms are going to break down our ridge of high pressure and bring a major change in our weather pattern starting tomorrow night. Today and Tomorrow will be our last calm days for some time to come. As NOAA has issued an El Nino watch, we can expect a more unstable weather pattern through the spring and possibly into the summer. First let's look at this next week:
First, weak storm should have an effect on our weather starting Tuesday Evening. This storm will stick around for about a day or two.Next stronger storm, gathers its strength to the north and comes in late on Saturday. This is a stronger storm but will only stick around for about 12-18 hours. This storm has major precip associated with it so if it slows just a bit, look for a major event.Third and strongest storm (of the week) comes in around 2:00pm on Monday, March 31st. This storm will have an impact on the Central Sierra as well. This storm and the remnants of it, could stick around through Wednesday.
Storm…

Warm, Sloppy Storm Arrives Early Tomorrow Morning

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We have been talking about this storm for over a week now. The timing has not changed as this storm will drop into our ares from the north and west. It will tap into the very warm and moist air out int he Pacific and bring some rain to the Sierra below 9,000 feet to start with. As the front moves through those snow levels will drop to around 7,500 feet. This storm is fast moving and should drop around a foot of snow around the upper elevations of the Sierra Crest west of Lake Tahoe. About half that in the Carson Range (as usual). Here is a look at the forecast, notice the approaching storm, this should be late tonight:


Snow should last through the morning tomorrow and the afternoon ... however at elevation, which is going to be very high for this storm. Most resorts over on the west side, that are challenged for elevation will receive all rain.

We have also been talking about another storm in the series for Sunday and Monday. Here is a look at very late on Sunday night:


The so called …

Active Weather Pattern Continues

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As our active weather pattern continues, we have a decent shot for snow tonight & tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday and then the following Sunday and Monday. Our best chance for a good storm and thus a powder day is very late Wednesday into Thursday, with snow most of the day, which means Friday would be the day. Prior to that it is going to warm up ahead of the storm. Snow levels will be around 6,500-7,000 for tonight/tomorrow and around 7,500 feet for the Wednesday/Thursday storm. Here is a look at precip estimates for the week:



As usual, north and west of the lake is the big winner looking at 2-4 inches of liquid precip possible with around an inch for the Carson Range.

Of course all of this can change ... there is a ton of moisture to tap into. If the dynamics of these storms change even slightly, we could be talking about significantly more precip.

Last post we talked a little bit about two weather dynamics that will make for an active Spring; and El Nino has developed in the …