The weather is going to be beautiful for the next 4-5 days. Then what is shaping up will be a decent storm toward the end of next weekend. In my last post, I talked about a larger storm coming in around the 22nd. Both the GFS and EC weather models are now talking about this storm more agressively. When the models align like this, they are normally very accurate. Before I was just overly optimistic about this system, I am now cautiously optimistic as some of the big long range forecasters are now also talking about this. How much and when remain questions, but suffice it to say, this should be the seasons first large storm. The EC weather model has about 2.5-3.0 inches of liquid precip blanketing all of the Lake Tahoe area. The system will have some very cold air associated with it so snow levels should be fairly low, starting at 7,500 and moving down as the storm hits. Here is what EC is saying for total precip through the 23rd:
This should translate into 2-4 feet of snow for the mountains and resorts around Lake Tahoe. That might be enough to open a lot of terrain at Mt. Rose. In addition, this model is calling for at least an inch of precip down in the leeward valley's of the Sierra, which includes both Reno and Carson City.
For those of you traveling on Thanksgiving, I will post a Thanksgiving weekend forecast later this week. For now, Thanksgiving day looks nice, but another storm could move in toward the end of the weekend.
Stay Tuned ...