Tahoe Weather Blog

Although this latest series of storms has underperformed our expectations, it will continue throughout the day. Then we will get a short break before the final storm in the series comes in for Friday (1/3). It looks like high pressure sets in after that for probably 10-14 days. These warm storms have had trouble getting enough lift to make it over the Sierra Crest with a few exceptions.  Mt. Rose will get 2-3 feet out of this cycle. Again, not your typical La Nina storms. Today's storm should be past us by this evening. We will then have a short break to dry out. Things will again warm up before the next storm comes in Friday: This cycle has left lots of precipitation in Northern California, which is always beneficial. The Pacific NW has been getting pounded all winter and these next few storms will be no exception. Here is a look at the precip potential through next Friday (1/3): We hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas and will enjoy a prosperous New Year. Unless something cha...

The storms are stacking up in the Eastern Pacific. We are tracking as many as 6 storms heading our way starting with Today's storm. This will bring clouds, wind and snow to Mt. Rose for nearly 10 straight days. One of the bigger of these storms will be on Christmas Eve: This is a pretty warm storm and it is moving pretty fast. However, a weaker wave comes through on the 26th and then another stronger wave comes through on the 27th: These are also pretty warm storms. However, this will be all snow for Mt. Rose. A number of weaker waves will follow the storm on the 27th, then on the 29th we are looking at another warmer storm: If you are wondering about New Years, this pattern will be active until at least the 3rd of January. Here is what we are talking about in the way of liquid precipitation: We are now thinking 4-6 feet of snow for Mt. Rose in the next 10 days. We are expecting 2 inches of liquid precip at the lake, much of that will be rain. The Western Crest will see nearly 10 f...

We are tracking what could amount to a series of storms starting this Saturday (12/21). As our persistent ridge of high pressure breaks down, we are looking at waves of precipitation that could last until New Years Eve. The GFS is much more bullish on this event than the ECMWF. Again, we favor the Euro model. Here is what all models are in agreement with: The above forecast is for Christmas Eve. This should be all snow for Tahoe resorts, except at the very lowest elevations. If you are thinking of crossing the Sierra, you may want to avoid the 24th. We are tracking additional waves of precipitation for the 26th and 29th as well.  Again these are fast moving storms. We are still waiting on a huge La Nina dump, which has yet to materialize. We will most likely have to wait until January before we see this.  Here is the precipitation potential, between now and the end of the year. We believe Mt. Rose will be in the 18-30 inch range. Which should open more terrain. This precip wil...

We have a storm just off the coast. However, we are seeing another strong rain shadow effect for the Carson Range. The precip is hitting the Sierra and not lifting over the mountains. When that happens, the precip moves down the Sierra leaving small amounts of behind. As you can clearly see by the forecast for tomorrow (below), there is plenty of moisture with this storm but not enough energy to get up and over the Sierra. Also, the deep freeze blocking high, forecast earlier in the week never materialized, so these storms are moving through rather quickly. Monday's storm looks like more of the same. The one piece of good news, these storms are nowhere near as warm as we thought they would be. What precip does come to Mt. Rose will be all snow. Then the models diverge. The ECMWF is predicting a very snowy Christmas and New Years. The GFS is predicting no more precip through the end of the year. We always favor the ECMWF, but this has been a very weird year with multiple storms prod...

After a long dry spell, the models are beginning to align and we expect a very abrupt pattern change starting Thursday with the possibility of huge storm for Saturday and another very warm storm for Monday. Here is what we are seeing, bare in mind that the GFS model is aligning with the ECMWF which increases are confidence: Thursday 12/12 Saturday 12/14 Monday 12/16 Much of the rest of the country will be in a deep freeze. A huge ridge of high pressure will provide some blocking which will slow our storms down. That means more precip! We are pretty confident that this is all snow on Thursday and Saturday for Mt. Rose. Monday could be a bit sketchy with some high elevation rain. Stay Tuned ...

Deep inversions will continue through the week. Great flying weather. Beautiful up on the mountain, but not enough open terrain. The most reliable weather model, the ECMWF, is forecasting that a major pattern change is coming to Tahoe and most of California in about week with several strong storms. The GFS model is showing a blocking ridge of high pressure. Our confidence of this pattern change is medium right now. We are hoping the models come into alignment. Again the ECMWF is more reliable especially further out. Here is what it is saying: Saturday December 14 Monday December 16 The 2nd storm is much warmer and could have very high snow levels. Before making any bold predictions, we will wait for the models to align. Stay Tuned ...