We have been discussing El Nino since July. However, at that time we moved into a weak El Nino and it has weakened slightly since. However, NOAA is still predicting a moderate El Nino through the winter which bodes well for snow in Tahoe.
We have had unseasonably warm and quite frankly beautiful weather through the entire month of September. That is going to change starting tomorrow and you will feel those changes through the weekend. We have a large blocking ridge of high pressure that is keeping what few storms there are, well to our north. This storm is the exception and a piece of energy should break off and give us some very light precip. Perhaps a dusting of snow above 10,000 feet on Saturday night.
Remember, about this time last year we had a typhoon cross the pacific and slam the Sierra with rain and high elevation snow. Of course it did not snow again until mid-January. I do not see that happening at all this year. There are indications that around the 18th of this month, our blocking high will break down. Around that same time the storms are going to start picking up strength. Look for something to happen in the Sierra around the week of October 22nd. I will keep an eye on this pattern change and report accordingly. The following forecast image shows a much stronger storm well to our north.
Will the high pressure get squeezed further south and west? Will that storm come down the coast and pummel us? Stay Tuned ...