With few exceptions, October should be a beautiful month in the Reno/Tahoe area. I know we received a few teaser storms, but all that snow will melt. Looking at the long range forecast, I am not seeing any major storms developing and coming to our area, possibly through October.
Having said that, what about the upcoming winter? How much snow can we expect? I have read numerous articles trying to predict the long range forecast. The only thing they have in common is they have nothing in common. I have heard of a weak to moderate El Nino (aint going to happen, at least not until spring) and a weak La Nina (slight chance). My guess is we will stay neutral ENSO until at least late January. Therefore the El Nino Southern Oscillation is not going to provide us any guidance.
Some pig was wagging his tail counter clockwise during the Wanning Gibbous Moon, therefore the Farmers Almanac says the USA is in for a bitter cold winter. I am not sure how much credibility I can give that, although the FA has been surprisingly accurate.
Well here goes: We are going to get in a very dry pattern through the first month of the fall. I believe, however, that we in Tahoe are poised for a pretty good winter. The activity of the sun should be much less than late last winter and last spring. That should allow the Arctic air to be released. That release should begin to trigger a pretty good storm cycle, probably starting in early to mid-November. That cycle may not be as intense as last December, but should not fizzle out like last year either. The spring could bring some nice surprises if we shift into a moderate El Nino (big if). I am predicting above average snowfall and below average temperatures for our region. Of course only God knows what is truly in store, He built this machine and the rest of us will just have to wait and see.
Stay Tuned ...