If you read my last post, I was tracking a long term possibility of a storm coming in for around the 11th or 12th of January. However, the models are now pointing to our ridge of high pressure stubbornly staying over our area for around a week after that. Here is a look at our current situation:
Hard to complain about beautiful weather, but I think we all realize we need some snow. Talking to Sven over at Unofficial Mt. Rose, they have not seen 4 straight dry years. I believe they have lived here nearly forever!
That tells me we are due. I know, I sound like a broken record. But if you came here to get a depressing, world ending forecast, you came to the wrong place. Currently, it looks like our conjoined trough will split the ridge way too far north, leaving our section of the ridge, in place. However, it will slightly weaken the ridge which still bodes well for the future. Friends, when this pattern breaks, it will break hard ... I believe that will be this season.
What we really needs is a huge storm and an ample swath of moisture to come down from the north and knock that ridge out of place. Well ... as it just so happens, we have another pattern shaping up to do just that. However, we are looking at still 7-10 days out for the changes to begin:
Once this large storm starts moving south, it will split and send some moisture our way, hopefully changing this dry pattern we are in. I do not expect this to be the "break out" event, but there are ample conditions in place for a pattern change. Right now, it looks like a stormy 4 or 5 days around the 17th of January and then back to another longer term dry pattern.
However, things could change, there are large storms out there and I will keep a close eye on it. It would not hurt to wash your car to put on warm weather wax or any of the dozen or so things that could change the pattern ... not very scientific, I know!
Stay Tuned ...