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Sunday, February 8, 2015

Next Storm Up

What a pleasant surprise when TWB forecasted the most precipitation and this time we were wrong on the low end. If you read last column, we were looking for 18-24 inches in the Carson range above 8,000. The NWS called for snow levels to be as high as 10,000 and a large rain shadow effect to be in place.

Sub-tropical moisture will be the deciding component for this next storm. This storm is currently just off the coast of Northern California. It will move almost due north staying off the coast. It's outer rings, however, will tap into another sub-tropical moisture plume and bring that moisture up and through the Tahoe area. I expect snow levels to start at about 7,500 feet. By the time it is all said and done, those levels will drop to around 5,500-6,000 feet.

Here is a look at the forecast for around 10:00pm tonight:


I believe the Carson range and Mt. Rose will pick up another 14-30 inches of snow from this one. I see a better trajectory and a strengthening storm.

Forecast remains the same; a dry period will follow this storm for at least another week.

Fantasy Forecast
Here is a look at the 30 day precip forecast:



Stay Tuned ...

2 comments:

  1. You'll have to forgive my meteorological ignorance. In Southern California, the season has been rather dismal. I am headed up to Tahoe from 2/26 - 3/1. Based on the information here, what are the chances of snow coming in during that time?

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    1. Starting to look better, but conditions are excellent on Mt. Rose which received over 4 feet a week ago ... all snow! See my latest post for your time period. Safe Travels!

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