Winter Starts Again on Friday Morning

What a beautiful stretch of weather we are currently enjoying. It's not over yet, but the end is near. We have a strong low pressure system that will work its way down from the Washington coast and bring a very stormy period to the Tahoe area. I see the period lasting from very early Friday morning through Sunday night. This storm will effect most of the state of California and does have a pretty adequate amount of moisture from which to work.

Here is a look at the storm at it's peak on late Saturday night:


This storm will tap into sub-tropical moisture and come in pretty warm. Hard to say the snow levels, but my guess is around 8,000. However, this storm will usher in a much cooler air mass and snow levels should drop at or even below lake level in time for the main precipitation event starting Saturday afternoon and lasting into Sunday.

Here is a look at the precip forecast for this event:


Finally, here is a look at the 384 hour GFS precip forecast, sent in by our chief meteorologist, Paul Huntington:


If you believe the GFS, we are in line for a number of storms. The EC model is not nearly as bullish. However, looking across the pond, a cyclone is forming now which could fuel several storms that could effect our area.

Stay Tuned ...

Comments

  1. I've been obsessing over the forecast for the past 5 days and am overwhelmed about how dynamic the next few storms have been modeled. The GFS has shown swings of 2-4 inches of liquid for the same forecasted period with nearly every run. Yesterday's 18Z showed at least 60" in typically favorable areas. This morning it's in the 20"s. I am looking at the teleconnections, winds, surface conditions, SST, and just about every model I csn find. The JAMTEC model has pretty much written off any significant precipitation for the area over the next 10 days. I am wondering if they are going to be more accuate given their study of cyclonic activity in the NW Pacific. I hope that the GFS optimal number pan out, but also wonder why their numbers have been so off the charts.

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