Winter 2019-2020 Outlook

Long time no post. I hope everybody had an enjoyable summer! Despite our very snowy beginning to 2019, the precip tapered off in the spring and especially in the summer. The tinder was not quite as plentiful and we also were very lucky to have a reduced fire season.

We have several very cold storms headed our way over the next several days, which will produce some precip for Northern California, that should continue to dampen the fires that are currently burning.

We will also see off and on snow ranging from 6,000-8,000 feet in both the Sierra and Carson Ranges. However, temperatures will eventually warm up and most of that snow will melt.

If anything looks serious, we will post, but for now, fairly typical September weather.

2019/2010 Winter Outlook
With El Nino all but a forgotten memory, we have moved into a neutral ENSO. We have seen how El Nino and his sister La Nina can have a very profound effect on our weather. However, with El Nino gone we will need some other anomalies to occur for us to pick up what we would consider average Sierra snowfall (30-40 feet).

For us the key is to kick our persistent ridge of high pressure out to sea or down south. That allows storms, born in the north, to drop down, grab moisture from the tropics and dump on us.

One thing we look at is the Typhoon season in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. In fact, Mammoth's earliest opening ever was due to a mid-October typhoon that crossed the Pacific and dumped over 4 feet of snow above 8,000 feet. There have been 2 super typhoons thus far and they have had some effect on our weather. The later these Super-Typhoons can form, the better chance of us getting an early season winter storm.

One thing that most long-term forecasters do agree on, is that there will be plenty of cold air to work with this winter for the entire USA. Often times those huge polar ridges can provide a blocking effect for us which can change the track of storms and bring them to us.

We at TWB see a below average snowfall and below average temperatures. Much to do the the ENSO but also averages are great predictors and we have had 4 years of average to greatly above average weather and it is time for things to .... average out.

DISCLAIMER: Last year's top forecasters predicted a below average winter for us. The fact of the matter is trying predict weather more than 10 days out is really a guessing game. Put a map on a dart board and blindly throw red and blue darts and where they land is where it will be cold or hot. That actually could be more accurate.

We will stick with our monthly views and be pretty darn accurate within 10-days based on the weather models.

Until then ... Stay Tuned

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