Stubborn Ridge of High Pressure Will Continue to Shove Storms North, Pattern Change Imminent?

The pattern change we were looking for, will not materialize until at least the 10th of January. High Pressure is firmly in control and shoving any potential storms to our north:


A number of storms will try and come in, but will not make it. We are seeing the potential for a pattern change around the 10th of January, however.

Both the EC and GFS models have a storm coming through our area. After that, the storm door does appear to open. However, 7 days out has been quite unpredictable this year.

There are a number of indicators that suggest a series of storms are headed our way, perhaps starting as soon as the 10th of January. Here is a look that the EC weather model for the 11th, the GFS is saying the same thing:


When those two models agree, our confidence is much higher. Also, we like to look at the Pacific North American pattern chart. Generally, when that goes negative, we see storms move into the Tahoe area. Here is a look at the PNA:


Finally, a look at the monthly precip forecast shows anywhere from 5-8 inches of liquid precip coming to our area. I should mention these storms appear to be on the cooler side so that could translate to 6-10 feet of snow:



So many indicators are lining up for our much anticipated pattern change.

Stay Tuned ...

Comments