Tahoe Winter 20-21 Outlook; Winter Starts Friday
Before we predict what you will see in the 2020, 2021 winter season, let's get one thing clear; Mother Nature is in charge of this ship. We see some patterns that could repeat and we make our predictions based on those historical patterns.
We are already beginning to see a pattern shift. In simple terms, we are moving into our wet season. That is good news because this was one of the driest summer/falls in recent memories.
Below is a precip chart for this winter season provided by NOAA. The white represents average precip. We agree for the most part with this chart. Tahoe is right on the border of drier than average. Southern California will continue to see dry conditions and the drought mongers will have something to talk about after several years of above average precip.
We are looking at Tahoe getting below normal precip. Possibly quite a bit below normal. Those averages have stayed consistent for many decades and quite simply we are due for another dry year. Couple that with La Nina and we are thinking around 225-250 inches of snow for Mt. Rose and the Carson Range. Again, we are guessing and hopefully we will be proven wrong!
Winter Starts Friday
Here is a look at the forecast for Friday as a cold front digs deep into our area. This chart is an over simplification but you get the idea. These beautiful days will be in the past, temperatures in the 60's will be few and far between until at least February, so enjoy these last few days.
In typical La Nina fashion, there are a series of storms that will attempt to make it to our area. Right now we are NOTseeing any significant precip for at least the next few weeks. However, the models are having a tough time consolidating on what is going to happen, so we believe the chance does exist for a few of these storms to give us at least a glancing blow and turn our mountains white.
Because we do this for fun and most of our readers like a positive outlook, here is what could be the first major storm of the season, albeit it is still 3 weeks out. The European model has become more accurate through the years in predicting these types of events weeks out. In fact, if you look at last year we were talking about a major weather event nearly 4 weeks out and it actually happened.
This one is slated the day before Thanksgiving and could usher in a pattern change that could open the mountains, top to bottom with real snow!
In the meantime, Mt. Rose should have plenty of cool temps with which to make snow. I would be very surprised if we are not making turns, drinking Mimosas by Thanksgiving day.
Stay Tuned ...