Tahoe Weather Blog

Not much has changed since I last blogged. I will try to pinpoint the powder days that are upcoming, there should be many. First of all we are moving deeper into a very cold snowy pattern. I have charted it out. Basically, we have a blocking ridge of high pressure that is dropping Arctic Cold into Central Canada (See post on Arctic Oscillation). That is forcing a large cold air mass down through our area that is tapping into a very wet moisture tail. Remember, you can click on any image and get a much bigger picture. This afternoon and this evening we will see more snow coming to the Sierra. It will tapper off later tonight and leave between 2-6 inches in the Sierra and Carson Range. Probably the lower amount in the Carson Range (Mt. Rose). Tomorrow should be great, just like today. Perhaps a bit more pow. Now the fun gets started. It looks like near constant moderate snowfall in the Sierra and Carson Ranges starting Sunday night and lasting until Tuesday afternoon. I look for

I apologize for my absence. I have been very busy with my day job and since the weather has been tame there was no need to blog. However things are changing. Starting with a nice little storm for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday will usher in some winds while Wednesday will bring precip. Wrap around moisture could be on tap for Thursday and this is a much cooler storm and will be all snow. As the cold front comes through on Wednesday, snow levels will drop to the valley floors. An area of wrap around moisture could affect the 395 corridor south of I-80 with up to 6 inches of snow late Wednesday into Thursday. Here is a forecast for Wednesday midday: We are about to enter a very stormy pattern as a NW flow will come into the area and bring with it a series of storms. I am impressed with the storm heading our way for Sunday: Next week the pattern looks to sustain as another storm is coming our way for Wednesday the 19th: This pattern should bring major snow to th

Wave 2 of our 3 wave storm is all snow above 7,500 feet according to the NWS. Snow levels may actually drop down to 7,000 feet as this wave progresses. Mt. Rose has already picked up between 12-18 inches of snow and that amount should increase to around 2-3 feet of very wet snow. Perfect to form a base. That is the good news, the bad news is that the NWS believes the next storm, which is even larger than the last two,  will have a snow level between 9,000 and 10,000 feet. Areas like Slide Mountain and the western Sierra Crest are going to get 5+ inches of precipitable water out of this storm. I am not going to guess what that will do to the snow but it is obviously not good. We will just have to see how it shakes out. In the meantime, the Truckee River is going to flood with all this moisture. I believe minor flooding, but you should be prepared. All small streams and creeks have the potential for flooding, so if you live near White's, Galena, Thomas or other creeks, be prepared. T

The dangerous winds for the Sierra Foothills on the leeward side will remain in effect. However, the NWS is now talking about those winds being strongest well south of Reno. My original analysis was for the possibility of 100mph plus winds in wind prone areas like Arrow Creek. I think we will see winds up to 100mph but the precip will shield us from the winds going any higher. Those winds will be tonight so hunker down! Snow elevation forecasts now are calling for snow above 7,000-7,500 feet. If this happens, the entire Mt. Rose ski area will be open by Monday as they will see in the neighborhood of 5-10 feet of very wet snow. That is great news, but often times God does not include the NWS in His forecast plan, so keep doing your dances, prayers or whatever else may work. Stay Tuned ...

The series of storms I talked about in my last post is knocking on the door right now. Here is what to expect through the weekend: Starting this afternoon a storm will move in from the south and west and bring precipitation to the area especially the western Sierra. Snow levels look to be about 7,000 feet for this one. This is the weakest in the bunch and will move out quickly. I expect 6-12 inches of snow for Mt. Rose, while the Western Sierra areas could easily pick up double that. Forecast for late tonight: Larger system moves in very early Friday morning. This is a much warmer system that taps into the subtropical jet. Expect damaging winds on Thursday night / Friday morning. This will spill heavy rain into the valley and the NWS is concerned about possible flash flooding. Snow levels will be at 8,000 feet or higher. Where it snows there could be a possible 2-4 feet. However it looks like this will be rain for most Tahoe areas and possibly half of Mt. Rose too.

A large storm will pick up ample sub-tropical moisture and should bring very wet weather to the Sierra and Western Nevada. This one is tricky to say the least. As of now, it looks like snow levels could be as high as 9,000 feet for most of this event as the storm taps into a very warm moisture flow from the south. Much of the Sierra could pick up in the 6-10 inch range (liquid precip). If those snow levels could drop down to 8,000, this will build a terrific base in the higher altitude ski areas, like Mt. Rose and Mammoth. The lake level areas like Squaw Valley will see almost all rain on the lower mountain as things look right now. I have charted what is forecast by the GFS weather model for Saturday. There is a giant storm to our north that is picking up sub tropical moisture from our southwest and bringing that to Tahoe and especially the western crest of the lake. Bands of heavy precip will start Thursday night and last through Sunday. The valley's will pick up much need

Expect about 6 inches of snow above 8,000 feet. Some of that may be rain. Luckily, this wave is going to hit at the coolest time of the day and hopefully that will keep snow levels down. There is some concern about this last wave making it to Rose. I think it will. I have a number of connections in the commodity market business. They live off the long term forecast and have made a real science out of it. I just read a very informative conversation about the Arctic Oscillation or AO. The AO is measured from -4 to +4. It indicates how much cold air is bottled up in the Arctic. The higher that number, the more cold air is bottled up. I have described this in past columns but am repeating it again because last year we spent much of the winter in positive territory. This winter is going to be different. We have already seen very cold arctic air coming down through the USA. I expect to see more of that. Whether or not that cold air makes it to Tahoe is irrelevant. The cold air provides two