Expect about 6 inches of snow above 8,000 feet. Some of that may be rain. Luckily, this wave is going to hit at the coolest time of the day and hopefully that will keep snow levels down. There is some concern about this last wave making it to Rose. I think it will.
I have a number of connections in the commodity market business. They live off the long term forecast and have made a real science out of it. I just read a very informative conversation about the Arctic Oscillation or AO. The AO is measured from -4 to +4. It indicates how much cold air is bottled up in the Arctic. The higher that number, the more cold air is bottled up. I have described this in past columns but am repeating it again because last year we spent much of the winter in positive territory. This winter is going to be different. We have already seen very cold arctic air coming down through the USA. I expect to see more of that. Whether or not that cold air makes it to Tahoe is irrelevant. The cold air provides two elements in the storm formula. First it provides a temperature contrast. When that contrasting temperature moves over warm water, the warm moist air rises and forms a storm. Secondly, these arctic air masses can provide a blocking mechanism and force storms to travel down the coast into our area. I know, too much info. But look for cold air in the upper Midwest and Central Canada. That will provide a good indicator that storms are on the way and that the AO has moved negative.
Here is the latest look at the upcoming winter forecast. Confidence is much higher and I think we are going to see a very robust winter. Most Tahoe ski areas are already open which indicates we are way ahead of last year.
Looking ahead, as advertised we are going to be dry for about 10 days as high pressure takes over. Temps will be unseasonably warm. However, the big change appears to be coming at the end of the month. I know I have done this before, but let's look a the EC long range weather forecast from 11/29 - 12/7:
We are looking (again) at 10 inches+ of liquid precip during that period of time. One of these days EC is going to nut it. This could be the week and I will keep a close eye on this. Expect to hear about this from other weather outlets in about a week, just kidding.
Stay Tuned ...