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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Five Days of Storms Starts This Afternoon

The series of storms I talked about in my last post is knocking on the door right now. Here is what to expect through the weekend:


  • Starting this afternoon a storm will move in from the south and west and bring precipitation to the area especially the western Sierra. Snow levels look to be about 7,000 feet for this one. This is the weakest in the bunch and will move out quickly. I expect 6-12 inches of snow for Mt. Rose, while the Western Sierra areas could easily pick up double that. Forecast for late tonight:

  • Larger system moves in very early Friday morning. This is a much warmer system that taps into the subtropical jet. Expect damaging winds on Thursday night / Friday morning. This will spill heavy rain into the valley and the NWS is concerned about possible flash flooding. Snow levels will be at 8,000 feet or higher. Where it snows there could be a possible 2-4 feet. However it looks like this will be rain for most Tahoe areas and possibly half of Mt. Rose too.

  • An even larger system moves in very late on Saturday night and lasts through Sunday. This is very similar to the Friday morning system in that snow levels will be very high. As the front finally passes through those levels will plummet. The potential for the system is better for heavy snow for 7,500 feet and above. Again, ahead of it expect very high and damaging winds of perhaps 100mph in the leeward foothills (Arrow Creek). The potential for 3-5 additional feet of snow above 7,500 feet exists. However if the front stays behind the precip, snow levels could be higher.

  • This is a major precip event and is exactly what I talked about a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, we will have to wait and see where the snow levels are. This has the potential of laying down 5-12 feet of snow in the upper elevations and 10+ inches of liquid precip along the Western Sierra.


Stay Tuned ...

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