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Act II: Knocking on the Door; El Nino for 2018/2019?

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Act II of our winter storm is knocking on the door and should be affecting most of the Tahoe area by late this afternoon. This storm is coming from the north and is colder than Act I. Where Act I weakened, Act II has strengthened and slowed down. The Carson Range should pick up 2-4 feet of snow tonight and tomorrow above 8,000 feet. This storm is much colder and will be all snow for all areas. Some ares of the western crest of the Sierra will pick up as much as 5 feet of snow. There is a shadow effect to this storm, but we still like our chances of getting a major dump. Expect moderate to heavy snow for the Tahoe area for about 24-30 hours and then some wrap around moisture as the storm moves south and east. The storm should be peaking around 2:00am tomorrow. Here is a look at the forecast for 2:00am tomorrow: OK, back to what we do, which is longer range forecasting. Next week looks good for another large spring storm. That storm is going to come in warm, however. Here is wha

Storm Update

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The winter storm that we have been talking about for the last two weeks is now upon us. This is an update on the timing of the storm: The storm will come in essentially two waves. The first wave is just now starting up. It will come in warm with the counter clockwise rotation pulling up moisture from the sub-tropics. This is the bigger of the two waves and will last until late tomorrow night with near constant, heavy snow. The elevation will be high to start, but should quickly drop. I believe Mt. Rose will get all snow, but would not be surprised to see snow elevations at the 8,000 foot level or even a little higher to begin with. The heaviest precip will be from 4:00 this afternoon until late morning tomorrow. Here is a look at the peak of the storm which should be around midnight tonight: There will be a break in the snow that should start very late tomorrow night and last through most of the day on Thursday before the next wave comes in. The 2nd and final wave comes in lat

Soaking Rains for California, Heavy Mountain Snow for the Sierra, Starts Tuesday

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A rather large and extremely beneficial storm is expected to come in on Tuesday and stick around for 4-5 days bringing wave after wave of moisture to almost the entire state of California and heavy mountain snow to the Sierra. Our current system is trying hard to produce. The first wave went by us to the west and north and the second wave is missing us to the south. However, I think the Carson Range could pick up around 3-6 (at most) inches of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning. Before we get into the forecast, if you did not see this earlier, we were sent a video of Ski Patrol doing avalanche control in the Chutes of Mt. Rose last week. I have been asked to post it again, it is pretty amazing. Mt. Rose Chutes Avalanche Control We have a giant trough of Low Pressure headed our way. Although the models are not in total agreement, we believe here at TWB that this will be a major winter storm for the Sierra and Carson Range. Here are the details: Tuesday at Noon (3/13)

When is our Next Big Storm?

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Before we get into the next storm or storms I think it is fair to mention the tremendous benefits of this last storm. The Sierra picked up anywhere from 5-10 feet of snow which is pretty amazing for this time of year. Better yet, the snow levels were very low and all Tahoe resorts saw epic conditions this past weekend. I was told the Mt. Rose Chutes opened up (partially) yesterday. I would guess that Yellow Jacket was closed. Here is a video of Ski Patrol's avalanche prevention measures: Massive Yellow Jacket Avalanche One lift operator told me after seeing this, "That was all five feet sliding down the hill". Ok, on to the next storm. I have been hearing about a big warm storm coming in at the end of this week. We think the pattern will turn stormy, but as we reported last post, this storm looks to be cutting north and will only give us a glancing blow. It is the following storm that has our attention. First of all, it is going to warm up to seasonal temperatur

We're Not Done Yet; Next Two Storms Look Warm

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We are currently in the lull that we talked about last post. This will not last long as this powerful storm begins to crank up again by mid to late afternoon: The storm is forecast to finally clear out by late Saturday afternoon but not before dumping 4-8 feet of snow throughout the Sierra and Carson range with similar amounts in the Central Sierra around Mammoth. This storm actually came in warmer than we expected but snow levels hovered around 5,200 feet at the their highest, which is a far cry from a typical large Sierra dump. Then next two storms are coming in much warmer and snow levels could start pushing the 8,000 foot mark again. The first of the two storms now looks to be heading further north than we expected in our last post. That will deliver the Tahoe area just a glancing blow. Notice the red lines, that is warmer air which is completely different than what we have been experiencing over the last few weeks. A third storm is now appearing on the horizon. Alt

Two Large Spring Storms Headed Our Way

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We talked about these two storms in the last post, but I feel it is worth putting out an update as both of these storms are large and packed with moisture. The first storm will show up very early Thursday morning. It will stick around for some 60 hours with heavy to moderate snow fall nearly non-stop for the Sierra. I like the trajectory of this storm to spill over and create havoc in the leeward valleys. We are looking at 3-5 feet or more for the Sierra while the foothills could see 1-3 feet and the valley floor could pick up several inches. This storm will be raging starting Thursday morning and last about 18-24 hours before a short lull and then another strong wave comes in. Here is a look at the forecast for Thursday at 4:00pm: All snow at all elevations for the Tahoe Ski Resorts. The next storm comes in very early the morning of March 7th. The EC weather model has this storm slamming us again, although not as much as the first storm. Here is a look at the forecast for the 7

Tahoe March Miracle?

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We have one storm, that has strengthened and is pulling moisture from the Pacific, knocking at our door. Another large spring storm on tap for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We are tracking a third storm which right now looks big for the following week. All three storms will be all snow for all Tahoe Resort Elevations. Add it all together and do we have the March Miracle? The first storm has picked up moisture and will hit Tahoe tomorrow morning. Right now the EC weather model has this storm hitting the area around 4:00 am tomorrow. Here is a look as the wave of moisture moves right over us, at the noon forecast for tomorrow: This storm will stick around for about 24 hours. I do not see an enormous amount of moisture associated with this storm. For the Carson Range we should see about 6-12 inches of snow, possibly a bit more depending on how much moisture this thing picked up. The next storm is much bigger, but right now, not the biggest of the 3. Still, this storm has an im