Tahoe Weather Blog

 The pattern change that we have been talking about for the last 3 weeks is finally upon us. We have a series of storms heading to Tahoe. The question that remains; how much snow will these storms bring us? We hope to answer that question. Right now the models are at odds with one another. What does that mean? That means that our confidence of a major weather event over the weekend is not as high as we would like. In fact, the GFS model, has backed off completely on a storm hitting this weekend. It is calling for a glancing blow. The European model, which is more accurate in our opinion, is calling for a moderate snow event for the Tahoe area: The above chart is the forecast for Sunday afternoon as seen through the EC weather model. This should bring some very beneficial snow to Tahoe, but not what we were looking for. The NAM or North American Model, is in agreement with the European model. (Sorry for the confusion) We have a very unstable pattern that we are moving into, so I expect

 The models have been pretty consistent these past few days. Somewhere around the 13th of this month, about a week from today, we expect our blocking ridge of high pressure to move south and west. That will open a storm door and at least for now, it looks like the storms are going to come right in! As with most pattern changes, the storms will start fairly weak and become progressively much stronger. Remember the days when the week of Christmas brought powerful storms into the Tahoe area. Well if things hold together, we are going to have a very stormy several weeks leading up to Christmas. Here is a look at the forecast for the morning of Monday December 14th: This is the weakest storm in the bunch, but notice how the ridge of high pressure is getting pushed south and west! That is very good news. A very large storm is brewing in the Gulf of Alaska. It begins to further flatten the ridge which opens the storm door even further, more very good news. As this very powerful storm pushes e

High Pressure off the West Coast will continue to dominate our weather for at least the next 10 days. However we are seeing the possibility of a pattern change around the 12th of December. Here is what we are up against: The ridge of high pressure is strategically located to block any moisture and keep our temperatures well above normal; a double whammy preventing storms to enter our area and the resorts from making snow.  However, not all is lost. In fact, most Tahoe areas are open and skiing is good for the most part.  We are seeing a pattern change that could arrive in the nick of time: Notice the new location of the ridge of high pressure. That should open a door for storms to make it into our area and if you believe the GFS weather model, a series of storms will slip through that door and bring much needed precip to Tahoe sometime between the 12th - 16th of December. Obviously that is quite a few days in the future and we will need to keep a close on this, but for those who prefer

 We are seeing a massive blocking ridge of high pressure setting up just off the West Coast: This ridge of high pressure is going to settle in, push all storms well north of Tahoe and stay there through at least the first week in December. Both the GFS and EC weather models are in agreement, which means the likelihood of this happening is high. Here is a wider look as the ridge in the jet stream sets up: This is a classic La Nina pattern. Having said that, the models have been really struggling with anything more than a few days out this year, so hope is not completely lost. Currently the long range models are showing a sign of the ridge breaking down around the 10th of December. All we can do between now and then is hope that Ma Nature flexes her ample muscles and returns us to the snow. Similar to the weather shutting down, rumor has it that Nevada may be shutting down as well. We certainly hope not as checking the hospital data in both Washoe and Clark counties we are seeing the fol

 We continue to see a very active weather pattern for the next several weeks. The models have consolidated. They are backing off on the precip amounts but not by much. 11/17 - 11:00 PM This first storm now finds the EC model a bit more bullish. It is born in the north, is a warmer storm that will pull up sub-tropical moisture from the south. The redlines and blue lines signify the cold front. The further north the redlines are, the warmer the storm. We are guessing around 6,500 to 7,000 feet. So this will be all snow for Mt. Rose. Our best guess is around 12-18 inches. 11/24 A series of smaller events will keep our weather unstable. Then on the 24th or thereabouts, the next storm will arrive. This is a smaller storm, but we have seen this pattern before. We believe this storm is wolf in sheep's clothing and could produce another foot of snow. The final storm we are tracking will arrive around the 28th. This is a much larger storm. We still do not have a clear picture of what this w

This last storm was an overachiever and ushered in a major pattern change. Fairly typical for this area; a single storm, in one day, changes our weather from summer to winter for several months. We are just over a month away from the Winter Solstice and winter has finally arrived. If you read our last post, we were tracking 3 storms. The models are consolidating and our confidence of a major winter event, is now very high. The only real change is the timing. It would appear that everything will arrive about a day sooner than expected. First, here is the GFS precip forecast for the next 2 weeks: The Tahoe area looks very much like 8-12 inches of liquid precip in the next 2 weeks. The GFS is more bullish than the EC, but the EC is coming around. These storms will be warmer and will produce a better base than what we saw this weekend. We can expect the next storm to show up late Friday November 13th. That will be a fast moving storm. Close on it's heels is another storm for the 16th.

 As we suspected, a slight change in the Jet and we could see winter with snow in our mountains, sooner rather than later. We are beginning to see that change now and if you believe the GFS weather model,  a series of storms are poised to hit our area starting around 14th of this month. The key is the high pressure ridge in the jet is now forecast to move quite a bit to the west, that should open the storm door. We are currently tracking 3 storms, each getting progressively more intense: 11/14/2020 Notice how far west the ridge of high pressure has moved. That opens a wide storm door. What we are not seeing is a big moisture tap to the south ... not yet. 11/18/2020 Our Ridge stays to the west, keeping the storm door open. La Nina storms can be much larger and despite these being early season storms, they are quite powerful. 11/20/2020 This storm looks to be the king. In true La Nina fashion, it will have the greatest effect on Northern California and the Pacific NW. Notice the moisture