Tahoe Weather Blog

The two most reliable models are predicting a couple of decent storms starting next weekend. In all we could be looking at up to 2 feet of additional snow for Mt. Rose. The GFS model is showing this for the 27th: GFS: Sunday March 27th The European (most reliable) has this storm showing up late on the 28th and then another storm on the 31st; ECMWF: March 31st If these storms hit they will provide much needed moisture for the west. There is going to be a "rain shadow", however, I think Rose should still get 1-2 feet of snow. The other side of Lake Tahoe could be looking at 2-4 feet of snow above 7,000 feet. Excellent conditions still exist out there. My hat goes off to the groomers up at Rose. This additional snow will allow the great conditions to continue. Between next weekend and now, however, we are looking at some very warm temperature. We are talking about highs in the leeward valleys in the 70's (Wed, Thu, Fri and Sat). Stay Tuned ...

 Well, this is the best we can do. We are tracking a couple of storms. The first is on tap for this weekend and could bring up to 6 inches of snow to the Carson Range starting Saturday afternoon and lasting until very early Sunday morning: After that we expect a big warm up that could see valley temps in the mid-70's by the middle of next week. Of course that will change and around the 28th of this month we see another fairly weak system, which is not uncommon for this time of year. We can see very large storms in April and in May. I suspect Ma Nature will turn things around just about the time we all catch spring fever. As far as season totals, this has been a pretty average La Nina year. Remember La Nina is fewer but larger storms. We have certainly seen that. Mt. Rose is going to be very close to average snowfall for the season. If you believe in averages and we certainly do, next year could bring above average precipitation. Stay Tuned ...

Sorry for the late note, I have been in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. At the behest of everybody I know, I did not bring a laptop! We have another Slider like system that will drop into our area and bring snow and cold through tomorrow morning. Because of the temps for most of this event, we are looking at around 8-16 inches of very light powder for the Carson Range. Seeing a gradual warm up into the 60's for late next week. Stay Tuned ...

 Wow, Ma Nature is really being fickle here. Our persistent ridge of high pressure is being bounced around, but will still block any major storms from reaching the area for the next 10-15 days. Here is a typical example, notice the ridge providing a perfect block from storms making it into Tahoe: We will return to much cooler air in about a week as well as an Arctic Front makes its way down and gets far enough west to effect our area. At least the Pacific NW is getting storms now. That could bode well for the 2nd half of March. Mt. Rose is up to 300 inches of snow for the year, which exceeds most predictions out there. Of course we predicted 330 inches for this year and that guess is starting to look eerily similar to last year. Perhaps next year we will predict 600 inches! Stay Tuned ...

A couple of slider systems will continue to effect our weather over the next 10 days or so. We are still seeing a pattern change continuing into March with storms coming down the coast as opposed to the Eastern Sierra. Those storms have much greater potential. We can expect a repeat of the slider we had earlier in the week. That system will come though on the 21st and 22nd and should bring more snow to the valley and the Eastern Sierra / Carson Range. These systems also bring in much cooler air. Then around the first of March we are seeing the ridge moved north and west. That should open the storm door. Right now the models are not showing any consistency. For now our confidence is not very high, but at least there is a chance for March to come in wet. Sorry, that's all I have for now. Stay Tuned ...

We alluded to this pattern change in our last post. The models are converging and even the NOAA long range forecast is calling for a likely stormy pattern heading to the entire West Coast starting on the 21st and lasting into March. Here is a look at the forecast for the 21st. This is the first in a series of storms as the polar ridge that has brought the Central and Eastern US into the deep freeze starts to break up. We know this is a ways out, but our confidence is very high for a number of reasons. Mostly, many of the weather predictors (AO, MJO, etc) are all pointing toward this event. In addition, the ECMWF Long Range is now forecasting this. This from NOAA, the last bullet point is most relevant to us: In addition, the AO is moving to a negative phase which bodes well for stormy west coast weather. So enjoy the next 10 days of high pressure as things are going to change rather dramatically.  March Miracle? Maybe! Stay Tuned ...

After record breaking snows in December, Ma Nature has turned off the spigot. Why she decided to do that, we have no idea. So, will it ever snow again in Tahoe? I know that is a ridiculous question. Of course it will.  We took out our long range Crystal Ball. We looked long and hard for a pattern change. We see one coming on or about the 3rd or 4th week of this month. Between now and then we could see a couple of weak sliders. One of the culprits for this weather, is a huge ridge of high pressure extending from northern Canada down all the way to parts of the southern US. It is keeping the northern plains in the deep freeze and blocking just about everything. That is giving free reign to our persistent ridge to setup off the coast and channel everything north. We need that ridge to move west, which should open the storm door again. Around the 3rd of 4th week of February, the long range forecast has that ridge moving west: As you can see, when that happens storms fill the void and make