Tahoe Weather Blog

First, let me apologize to my loyal readers. Generally when  you see that I posted that means a storm in on the horizon ... good times. Well, I keep hearing that a storm is coming next week and I want to set the record straight. From here on in, when you see the Tahoe Weather Blog posted in your inbox, you will know that I am seeing something. The question of the day, will Mt. Rose Open next week? In two words, probably not. Despite the first storm of the year coming in from the west, it is doubtful that this event will produce snow, let alone significant snow. The models are surprisingly consistent on this one. First a small system will approach from the west and track north. This system will not bring any precip to the Tahoe area. The next system should arrive next Wednesday. This is a larger system, but will break up and then head north. We will see cloudiness, but at this time, very little if any chance for measurable precip, especially on this side of the lake. Just because

Just a quick update. I want to expand upon what I was saying last post. El Nino is the real deal this year and should have a major impact on precipitation for most of California this winter. After a slight decline, another Kelvin Wave pushed El Nino into nearly uncharted waters. If you look at last post, only two years have compared with this El Nino. This El Nino could be stronger. The one variable that was not in play during 82/83 & 97/98 were the extremely warm California coastal waters. Most experts believe this will add to the extreme weather effects that have been associated with El Nino's similar to this one. Here is what impresses me; The forecast peak of this El Nino will come right in the heart of our rainy season. Take a look at the latest chart from NOAA below. If we hit some of those upper outliers, we are talking about an event previously unseen. Stay Tuned ...

After four years of drought, most of California is under a water emergency. However, we are seeing indications that at least some relief is in sight for the short run and the long run. First, let's get some facts straight; California is mostly a desert. The drought stricken areas along the southern coast are deserts that have been radically over populated by man. We have decimated the geography by covering it in concrete and planting thousands of different varieties of non-indigenous plants. We have polluted the air and ground. In short, man has not been good to this area and there is no argument for that. The weather in this area is so nice in both the winter and summer that it is a very highly desirable place to live. Extended dry periods in deserts are not that uncommon. However, when you have over 30 million people living there they tend to be catastrophic. The San Francisco Bay area is not much different. It gets more annual rainfall (on average) than Southern California,

We are in a very strange weather pattern indeed! It has been raining for a couple of weeks in the desert, snowing in the higher elevations. Ironically, this pattern is from a series of low pressure systems that occupy the entire west right now. The real culprit is a strong storm centered near the four corners region. This storm is pulling moist air up from the south and wrapping that moisture around, right into the state of Nevada and much of the west. This storm is near stationary, so expect this pattern to continue through at least tomorrow. Unfortunately, California is being left out of this current event for the most part. When will it end? First, there is a warming trend coming as the Jet dives south and this storm begins to move north and east. However, from what I can see it is in no hurry. So I expect warmer temps (still below average) to move in, but the chance of rain will continue through next Friday, albeit nothing like what we have seen this week. After that, th

In our last post we talked about a potential spring storm for Tahoe. Considering, that storms do not have the power this time of year that they posses in December and January, we have a moderate size storm knocking on the door. Not much has changed since my last post as the models have held true for some decent precip coming to the Sierra and Carson range starting tomorrow and then picking up steam around midday on Tuesday. Here is the latest from EC for around midday Tuesday: I know, this looks like the same forecast I gave about a week ago, the only difference is that this is the latest model run. There are parts of the Western Crest of the Sierra that will pick up 2-3 feet of snow from these series of storms. I believe the Carson range (Mt. Rose) could should pick up 1-2 feet of snow by Wednesday night. As a disclaimer, the NWS is calling for much less snow. However, considering the latest model runs and the cold air associated with these storms (snow levels @ 5,000 feet),

Both EC and GFS weather models are suggesting a major spring storm could hit the Tahoe area in a little more than a week. Both models are suggesting that our first decent storm cycle in over a month is on the way for the last week of skiing at most of the Tahoe resorts. This is not, by any means, unprecedented. In fact, this has been one of the worst springs in recent memory for storms. Large April storms are the rule not the exception. Most years are good for at least one and if you believe the weather models, a storm could be on the way. Here is a look at the EC model forecast for the 7th of April: The GFS model is showing a remarkably similar forecast. Here is a look at the precip potential for this storm: Interestingly enough, the GFS has a series of storms coming in starting early next weekend and getting progressively stronger. These models have been teasing us all year with storms that do not live up to their potential. Under achieving storms, so beware. It is

A weak storm will gain some strength, come down from the north and should leave the Tahoe area with some accumulating snow. However, there will be a rain shadow at the crest which will limit accumulation in the Carson range. Here is a look at the forecast for very early Monday morning: Here is a look at the precip forecast. Most of the precip stays west of the Sierra: I am not seeing any weather anomalies headed our and we should move to dry pattern starting Tuesday afternoon. The Western Crest of the Sierra could pick up 6-12 inches by Tuesday afternoon while the Carson range will be limited to 1-4 inches. Stay Tuned ...

If you read my last post, you were disappointed with the storm that passed through our area yesterday. The storms are just too weak to cause much havoc, which is not totally unusual for this time of year. However, I know I am beating a dead horse, we are so due that I have been fully expecting something extraordinary. Well folks, it does not look like it is in the cards. There are a few very weak disturbances that will pass through in the next 10 days, but nothing much. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, the weather has been very difficult to forecast these last few years. Oftentimes these weak storms can pick up some moisture or get blocked out by something thousands of miles away, and then everything can change. So let's hope that happens. If it does, you will know ahead of time. Stay Tuned ...

I am seeing indications that a new storm cycle could crank up again around the 11th of March. Both the EC and GFS models are forecasting a decent storm heading our way in about a week. That could possibly usher in about 5-7 days of stormy weather. Here is the EC forecast for the 11th of March: I know this does not look that impressive, but the models have been going back and forth on just how large a series of storms will be, starting around the 12th. The GFS has been hinting a a much larger storm for our area around the 15th. Unfortunately, the models have not been able to stick with a forecast on a consistent basis. I thought I would put this out there. I will continue to track this possible event and report accordingly. Stay Tuned ...

We have a fast moving storm approaching for Friday. However, that storm will make land up in Oregon and come down with a really crappy trajectory ... if you want snow that is. With it, more cool air is on the way. The pattern will probably hold for another week or so before another chance at storms comes in. Sorry folks, but that is all I have. The 30 day is still showing some promise, but these storms appear to be fizzling out again. I am hoping for a major change in a couple of weeks or so, but have nothing I am willing to show. About the only good news I have, is that we will stay on the cool side for the next 7-10 days starting on Friday as we get into that north flow. Good news if you are trying to manage a hockey pond! I am leaving town for a few days, hopefully something will start to spin up around the time I get back. If so, I will let you know. Stay Tuned ...

The models all appear to be aligning for a stormy end of February and a stormy beginning of March. The latest to hop on the bandwagon is the European model. Our ridge of high pressure is still firmly in place. However, an even larger ridge of high pressure will setup over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes and act as a pretty good blocking force. This will send Pacific storms down the coast and into our area and even further south. Here is a look at what we can expect around around the 27th of February As the a High Pressure ridge sets up in the North Central US, storms will be forced down the coast. With any luck, this pattern will hold well into March, however it is too early to say. The models are hinting at a pretty good storm on the last day of February. Here is a look at the EC weather model for the 28th: Currently, the GFS model has the initial wave being weaker, but follows this storm with several larger storms. Here is a look at March 2nd: GFS has a

I understand that I am beating the proverbial dead horse, but we are due for something big. Over the last 3+ years we have seen below average, and in most cases, way below average precip here in Tahoe. It is even worse south of here. Averages exist for a reason, the world does not change overnight so I still fully expect a major pattern change to usher in a very wet spring. Having said that, I can base this on no scientific data, historical data, weather trends, oscillations or anything else, at least not consistently. By no means am I complaining about the near perfect weather that we have seen around Tahoe for quite some time. But, enough is enough, we live in the snow belt and it is about time we got some snow. The GFS weather model, for the past couple of days has been hinting about a pattern change. That change could come as early as the 26th or as late as the first of March. Interestingly enough, today the EC weather model joined the party. The GFS is more aggressive, but EC

What a pleasant surprise when TWB forecasted the most precipitation and this time we were wrong on the low end. If you read last column, we were looking for 18-24 inches in the Carson range above 8,000. The NWS called for snow levels to be as high as 10,000 and a large rain shadow effect to be in place. Sub-tropical moisture will be the deciding component for this next storm. This storm is currently just off the coast of Northern California. It will move almost due north staying off the coast. It's outer rings, however, will tap into another sub-tropical moisture plume and bring that moisture up and through the Tahoe area. I expect snow levels to start at about 7,500 feet. By the time it is all said and done, those levels will drop to around 5,500-6,000 feet. Here is a look at the forecast for around 10:00pm tonight: I believe the Carson range and Mt. Rose will pick up another 14-30 inches of snow from this one. I see a better trajectory and a strengthening storm. Foreca

Averages are averages and finally, for the next week, starting tomorrow .... its our turn! A massive storm is poised to make land in central BC and the southern rings will pull moisture from the south in the form of atmospheric river and slam Northern California, including the Tahoe area .... finally! Much needed precipitation is coming in and should start for the Northern Crest tomorrow afternoon. This is a big storm, but the better news is the series of storms pictured above is going to cut south and slam us, head on, with another storm starting around late Sunday. The following is the forecast for around 5:00pm Sunday: Here is the precip totals for the two storms combined: While this is all good news for farmers and drought mongers alike, snow levels will be very high. We will also have a pretty strong rain shadow effect along the Sierra crest that will limit snowfall (somewhat) in the Carson range. Those snow levels are forecast to be around 8,000 feet for most