First, let me apologize to my loyal readers. Generally when you see that I posted that means a storm in on the horizon ... good times. Well, I keep hearing that a storm is coming next week and I want to set the record straight. From here on in, when you see the Tahoe Weather Blog posted in your inbox, you will know that I am seeing something.
The question of the day, will Mt. Rose Open next week? In two words, probably not. Despite the first storm of the year coming in from the west, it is doubtful that this event will produce snow, let alone significant snow.
The models are surprisingly consistent on this one. First a small system will approach from the west and track north. This system will not bring any precip to the Tahoe area.
The next system should arrive next Wednesday. This is a larger system, but will break up and then head north. We will see cloudiness, but at this time, very little if any chance for measurable precip, especially on this side of the lake. Just because I like to post pictures, I will post this one. Below is the peak of the storm in our area, sometime next Thursday:
Yep, that is as good as it gets. Worse yet, it looks like high pressure will take over from there and our mild, dry weather will continue. For a while. Here is the EC 30 day precip outlook for the west:
If you look closely, we are forecast to pick up around an inch of liquid precip in the next 30 days. So, according to the models that I have looked at, Mt. Rose may not be opening until Thanksgiving or later.
I put the 30 day forecast confidence at less than 10%. The reason I do that is El Nino, which is here and unprecedented. Quite a few very smart people that write me have warned of dire consequences. Here is what BigSurHuntington, a western weather forecaster wrote me last week:
Check out the "westerly wind bursts" in west pacific right now being caused by intense cyclonic activity and strong outflow from the twin typhoons...man this el nino might need a new category soon!! I am warning people on my social media sites to seriously prepare for this and be ready to be stuck in your home for possibly weeks at a time!!! This is really starting to appear like the 100 year flood event is looming!!!
Cheers to drought breaking,
In short, this could be a very dangerous winter. Currently, the largest hurricane ever measured is poised to hit Mexico. This could have an effect on our weather and wipe out the entire forecast. Things are brewing that we have never seen before. As we start to get into December, January and February, many experts are extremely worried about the effects that this El Nino will have on the state of California. It may be advisable to be prepared. If Mr. Huntington is even close on his predictions, we are in for a big winter with heavy precip.
Stay Tuned ...