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Thursday, December 31, 2009

Tomorrow's Storm Weakening

The further north you live the more precip you will get. This storm is shifting to the north and as it comes inland it will weaken significantly (see last post). Right now we are looking at about .5 to .75 inches of liquid precip for the high sierra. That translates into perhaps 6-12 inches of snow. Cut that in half for the Carson Range (Mt. Rose). The heaviest snow will fall after 4:00, so if you get up early on Saturday the should be some nice lines. Here is a closer look. That little area in NW California is what remains of our storm. It will move inland, weaken further and just graze us:


Looking ahead, a ridge of high pressure moves in Saturday. This will cause more strong inversions in the valley but should make for some pretty nice days on the mountain. The models are showing a possible change in our pattern starting on or near January 7th. That change could be significant as the models have that lasting at least a week. This change is not showing up on NOA's PNA so I am cautious when I talk about it. However we are due to get back into the storm cycle. This cycle looks to be starting around the 7th and gradually the storms get stronger. Here is what GFS thinks will happen on or around the 13th of January:



As you can see, all of California will get heavy precip and also the leeward valley's of the Sierra (Reno). This storm is the biggest but is preceded by several other pretty impressive storms. Let's hope the models get this one right!


Stay tuned ...

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