Ok, about time I got back into this thing. I know under my roof everybody is looking forward to winter. This weekend will see a weak low pressure system to our north sneak some cool and windy air into our region. However next week is looking beautiful.
There have been some changes over the last few months, highlighted by the emergence of La Nina (Yes, she is back) in the Equatorial Pacific. That has caused a number of long range forecasters to predict an early start to winter, in some cases very early.
Currently, I am tracking a tropical storm down off the southern coast of Baja. Hilery is packing some moisture and moving north and this could coincide with a weak trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. This could be our first major weather event and it looks like October 1 and 2 is when the party gets started. The mountains should see some snow in the upper elevations above 10,000 feet. Here is a look at the 2nd of October:
Ok, the models are all over the place. La Nina returned in August. Most models have the ENSO neutral conditions returning by winter. However some models have a moderate La Nina developing. Of course this does not mean much. Last years La Nina brought record snows to the Sierra while previous La Ninas meant drier conditions.
Right now I do not have a real feel for what is coming this winter. NOAA says expect average precip and temps. Other reliable long range forecasters say expect a very early and abundantly snowy winter. With this storm headed our way for the beginning of October it would be hard to argue that conditions are ripe for last years pattern to settle back in. I want a little more time to think about. I will keep an eye on this storm and report accordingly. One thing is for sure .... Winter is coming!
Stay Tuned ...