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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Thanksgiving Day Party?

Thanksgiving Day Blizzard
I am tracking a decent storm that appears to be heading right for us on Thanksgiving Day. Obviously, your favorite Tahoe mountain will not be open by Thanksgiving, but if this thing holds together, it may be shortly thereafter. Amazingly, the two big long range models (GFS, EC) are in agreement about this one which is rare this far out. In addition the PNA is going negative for the last half of the month. Here is what GFS shows for Thanksgiving day:


GFS and EC are showing between 2-4 inches of liquid precip with this storm which could translate into 18-40 inches of snow, if we are lucky:



Notice the bulk of the precip staying to our north. However if a little more of that energy comes down to us we could turn this into a much bigger event.

If you have plans to travel over the mountain passes, I would stay tuned to this blog in the coming days as I fine tune the timing of this storm. For now, it looks like the party gets rolling Thanksgiving morning.

Two Storms For This Weekend
We have a couple of fast moving storms headed our way this weekend. The first will actually show up tomorrow night. Expect very strong winds, 50-100mph, on the leeward foothills (Arrow Creek, Galena, Washoe Valley, etc). Those winds are going to rev up tomorrow night. This storm is moving too fast to leave any decent snow in the Sierra. I am guessing 6-12 inches at best. If this thing slows down, we could have more.

Right on the heels of the first storm comes the second storm on Sunday. However, this will have almost no precip as it moves south off the coast right past us. Expect some wind with this one but very little, if any precip.

This storm is significant because it will cause our prevailing winds to come out of the south and west which will warm things up for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. However as the big storm approaches from the Gulf of AK, all bets are off for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Stay Tuned ...

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