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Wednesday, November 23, 2011

As Rose Remains Closed, Storm Falls Apart, High Pressure and Mild Weather to Move In

Thanksgiving Travel
Travel should not be affected by the weather for the entire weekend. The Sierra, mostly north, will see some light snow between noon and 4:00pm on Thanksgiving day. After that the roads should be clear and driving conditions should be excellent. 

Bad News For Skiers and Riders
A very slow start to winter is upon us. Mt. Rose was unable to open due to lack of snow and even snow making conditions. In addition, the decent sized storm that the models predicted a week ago has weakened considerably, will split and have nearly no impact whatsoever on the Sierra. To make matters worse for skiers and riders, a strong ridge of high pressure will move in and camp out, preventing any storms from moving into the area for the foreseeable future. As high pressure moves in it will block anything that does make it to our area from getting any sort of moisture tap. That means wind and no precipitation. Here is what we are looking at. Notice the 2nd area of high pressure. It will move in to reenforce this pattern. Folks, that means no significant snow for at least the next 15 days, or more.


One of the more telling signs is the PNA which is moving very positive in the coming weeks. Here is the PNA chart. Normally as this thing moves negative we see much stormier weather:


One last sign that the alignment of weather factors is not good is the MJO. Perhaps you remember from past weather columns that the MJO is a storm anomaly that sees extremely stormy weather move from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific and on East across the Pacific. It is in an early, far west phase right now where the stormy weather is in the Indian Ocean.


We have moved into a moderate La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific waters off Central American coast. That normally means fewer storms, but bigger storms. Of course last year it meant an unbelievable spring after a mild January. Our area averages 30-40 feet of snow per season. This slow start only means that we will probably have a long winter with some giant storms.

Stay Tuned ...

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