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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Change Coming But Not Until December 20th

The stubborn high pressure ridge that has blocked all storms from sniffing our area is showing signs of moving south. That will open a large corridor for major storms to hit our area. However those storms will probably not start until around the Christmas Eve or Christmas Day at the earliest. I have displayed two images below, the first is where the blocking high pressure ridge has been and is now. The second is the GFS forecast for where it will be around the 20th of December.  Notice that the high pressure ridge is much smaller and about 1,000 miles south. The next challenge is for that ridge to move a bit west and the storm corridor will be open, big time.

Current Conditions
December 20th Conditions

I said this in my last post and I believe it is worth repeating. A typical La Nina year will not have as many storms but should produce an average amount of precipitation. This weather pattern, if it holds true, is setting up for some giant storms to slam the Tahoe area around Christmas.

This forecast is for 18 days down the road. If the pattern accelerates, which there are signs of that being a possibility, I will let you know. But for now, most Tahoe ski areas are open starting Friday. That includes Mt. Rose which will be open top to bottom on Friday. My thought is NW to Kit Karson traverse to Kit down to Pondo. Considering the lack of snowfall they have done a remarkable job. I encourage one and all to get out there starting Friday and get your legs in shape. Come X-Mas the POW is going to be deep and you don't want your legs burning out in the first hour!

Stay Tuned ...

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